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Posted in 1 - Liquidity Trader, Liquidity Trader - US Treasury Market Trend Supply and Demand, US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

We Knew the Treasury Paydowns Would Be Bullish, But What Now?

Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt, short term T-bills in particular. I said that the paydowns “will continue until the end of Q2. That’s bullish for bonds, and possibly for stocks.”

But then I said that the picture changes radically in Q3. And that has not changed. Here’s what’s happened so far, what’s likely for the third quarter, and then the big change that’s coming. Having this information will help you to continue to take advantage of the market’s big move, and to be ready for when and how it’s likely to change.

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