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Category: US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Primary Dealer Positions Bulging, Bloated, and Overstuffed, Could Explode

Primary Dealer positions are record long, record leveraged, and record dangerous.

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Ticking Time Bomb In The Treasury Market Could Blow Up The World

The Treasury market will look very bullish for a little while. But the aftermath of the forces that look bullish now, will be terrible. Here’s why.

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Treasury Boosts Market With Paydowns Now, But You’ll Be the One Paying the Piper Later

The US Treasury is playing games that make the stock and bond markets look good now. But here’s why you’ll be the one stuck with the bill later, in the form of falling prices.

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Federal Budget Data Reveals Growth But Hides Ticking Time Bomb

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in report

Tax collections for April and real time data into early May showed a strong economy until last week. Then something went wrong.

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Current Federal Withholding Tax Collection Data Give Fed No Excuse To Ease

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in report

Withholding tax collections through May 7 remain strong.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are a Black Cloud Over the Market

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Dealer positions look scary. Here’s why, and what to do about it to protect yourself, AND take advantage!

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Beware of these Warning Signals on Treasuries

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Warning signs abound that a cataclysm lies ahead for the Treasury market. It will also infect stocks.

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Federal Revenue Growth Gives Fed No Excuses, But Economic Strength May Be an Illusion

Federal Deficit Chart- Availble full size in the reportFederal tax collection data for March showed modest economic growth but continuing wide Federal budget deficits. An uptick in nominal revenues has reduced Treasury issuance for the time being. But the revenue windfall will be counted and in the books by mid May. After that, things will change. Here’s what to expect and a recommended investment approach.

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Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Treasury Supply Trend. See full size chart in the report.

Short term rates in the Treasury money markets have remained near their highs despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply over the past month.

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Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time, April 10 and get 15% off the published price. Applies to the initial price and all renewals. Price will be adjusted after order completion.