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Category: US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Treasury Supply Trend. See full size chart in the report.

Short term rates in the Treasury money markets have remained near their highs despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply over the past month.

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These Charts Show How Primary Dealers Create Huge Risk as They Get Longer and Longer the Bond Market

Full sized chart in report. The Primary Dealers continue to carry historically massive net long fixed income positions, purchased with debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage. They are hedging in the futures markets, and have reduced their Treasury longs a bit over the past month. But their overall net long exposure continues to grow. Here’s what history tells us about why that could be a problem. And here’s how you can protect yourself and even take advantage of the fallout.

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Charts Show Increased Speculative Leverage Driving Rallies in Stocks and Bonds

Meanwhile, instead of liquidating other assets to raise the cash to buy new Treasury supply, dealers and other buyers have used up cash and added to their leverage. The rally has been pushed by a massive increase in leveraged speculation. This leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable. Here’s what to look for and how to trade it.

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Here’s Why Bonds Rallying Despite Burgeoning Supply is Bad News

The BLS reported a very weak jobs number this morning. Treasuries are rallying again. How the BLS got that number in the face of surge in withholding tax collections in February is a mystery, but the likely outcome isn’t. Here’s why it’s bad news for both bonds and stocks, along with  a recommendation what to do about it.

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Withholding Tax Chart Belies Fed Fears, and Sends A Clear Warning To Bulls

Federal withholding tax collections went through the roof and excise taxes had solid gains in February. Here’s what this means for the economic data ahead, for the markets, and for your portfolio strategy.

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Did The Fed Just Send The Market On The Greatest Misdirection Play Ever?

It has been 4 weeks since the government shutdown ended, not enough time for any official economic data on the post shutdown period.

But we have data. Boy do we have data! It’s the daily tax collections data. And what it is showing is simply amazing. Post shutdown withholding tax collections have gone through the roof.

Here’s what it could mean.

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This Chart Shows Why Dealer Positions Are a Catastrophe in the Making

The Primary Dealers are in trouble, demonstrably worse trouble than they were in just before the September 2008 stock market crash.

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January Tax Collections Make You Wonder Why Fed Panicked

The Federal tax collection data for January makes you wonder.

Why did the Fed panic?

True, withholding tax collections collapsed, thanks to the government shutdown. And that revenue collapse, while temporary, has ramifications in terms of causing an unusually large bulge in new supply this month that will be problematic for the stock and bond markets. If it isn’t, then we’ve moved into an alternate universe driven by fantasy, and leverage, that will come to a crashing halt one day soon.

But there’s another side to the tax data coin, and it tells a completely different story. This report covers the gory details in Technicolor charts and colorful language too!

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