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Month: April 2019

Federal Revenue Growth Gives Fed No Excuses, But Economic Strength May Be an Illusion

Federal Deficit Chart- Availble full size in the reportFederal tax collection data for March showed modest economic growth but continuing wide Federal budget deficits. An uptick in nominal revenues has reduced Treasury issuance for the time being. But the revenue windfall will be counted and in the books by mid May. After that, things will change. Here’s what to expect and a recommended investment approach.

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Here’s How Light Treasury Supply In April and May Create Selling Opportunities in Bonds and Stocks

Treasury Supply Trend. See full size chart in the report.

Short term rates in the Treasury money markets have remained near their highs despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply over the past month.

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Gold Launch Pad Right Where Needed

Gold’s launch from support is a positive sign. I have added 3 more toe-in-the-water mining picks after the last group was stopped out.

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Here Are the Targets Market Has Set Its Sights On

The market is setting its sights on new highs, but there are reasons to believe that it might not make it. I have added tight trailing stops to protect the profit in last week’s SPY call purchase recommendation.

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Here’s Why It’s a Make or Break Week for Bears, But Bulls Too

This is a make or break week for both stock market bulls and bears. Futures exploded higher in the wee hours, making it appear that the path of least resistance is up. If this sticks, it will be an intermediate term bullish confirmation. However, if it does not stick, the bears could gradually gain the upper hand. It’s only 4:30 AM NY time as I write this, and the pre market is the pre market. Let’s see where we are at 4:00PM.

Meanwhile, we have a new conditional SPY call buy recommendation. Here’s what needs to happen to trigger the trade.

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