Cycles are in gear to the upside, but there are no projections yet. A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due by xxxx (subscriber version only). But the indicators appear to be in trending mode for that cycle. This could turn into an epic blowoff, or just fizzle out.
Either way, we need to be on our toes. If 10-12 month cycle indicators and the market averages break this week or next, it should be a top. But my operating assumption must still be that the trend will continue until a clear break. Anticipating such a break is a bad idea. The market gives no awards for being early. Just don’t be too late. Our antenna is up.
The 6 month cycle doesn’t appear to be set up to allow for an extended decline. But a short, sharp break is possible at any time in September. We’ll be on the lookout for the signs.
The 13 week cycle appears to have begun a new up phase ideally due to last xxxx xxxx. (subscriber version only)
On the third rail chart, a cluster of support lines starts the week at xxxx and rises to around xxxx (subscriber version only) at the end of the week. There’s a second cluster of parallel rising trendlines about 40 points below that that should mark support if the first set breaks. The market would need to break both those to start even a semblance of a reversal.
On the weekly chart, with the market beginning to create a little separation from the trendline at xxxx (subscriber version only), the long term cycle projections of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version only) are looking more and more realistic, with highs due between xxxx xxxx and xxxx xxxx.
On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 look set to end August at or above long term trend resistance around 4500. If it does that, it would suggest more upside.
The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.
Cycle screening measures strengthened. This confirms the trend and suggests another extension.
Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.