The 10-12 month cycle now appears to be in trending mode. The timing of a likely top is uncertain. The 6 month cycle has returned to its up phase path. The up phases in those two cycles that appeared to abort the week before have reasserted themselves. The 6 month cycle projection is now xxxx (subscriber version). There’s a 4 week cycle projection of xxxx (subscriber version).
On the Third Rail Chart the SPX is now in a meltup channel that is targeting xxxx (subscriber version). If it stops at xxxx instead, it could be a top, but I wouldn’t bet on that unless and until it dropped back below xxxx.
On the weekly chart, last week’s rebound repaired the technical damage of the week before. The uptrend is intact, despite the negative divergence in 3-4 year cycle momentum. SPX would need to end a week conclusively below xxxx (subscriber version) to signal that this might be the start of a bigger top.
The monthly chart now shows the conditions suggesting the formation of a 7 year cycle top. If the S&P ends December below xxxx (subscriber version), the uptrend would be broken, and the target would then be the trendline now at 4000. Conversely, if the xxxx area remains intact, the way would be clear for a move to xxxxxxx xxxxx in early 2022.
Cycle screening measures screamed higher in a pattern similar to October-November 2020. That led to a breakout and long upleg. It doesn’t guarantee the same outcome here, but we need to be cognizant, and prepared for the possibility. We don’t want to be dumbfounded in disbelief, and get caught flatfooted. I’ll keep you updated on conditions and signals in these reports.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.