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Category: US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

How Much QE Will Be Enough For Exploding Deficit Defecation?

The US Treasury daily tax data suggests that the US economy is at least slowing. That means already yooge deficits will grow. Treasury supply will grow with it. How much QE will be enough to keep asset prices inflated?

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Treasury Supply Recedes, But Here’s Why The New Normal Is Scary

Net new Treasury supply is receding to the “new normal,” averaging around $100 billion per month. We know we have a problem when a hundred bill is “normal.”

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The US Economy No Longer Matters – It’s The Debt, Stupid!

The game has changed radically in the past two weeks, so it does not matter one iota what the economy is doing. It’s the debt, Stupid. Or the stupid debt. Or the stupid economists, central bankers, and Wall Street crowd. Actually, it’s all of the above. Here’s why, and what  to do about it.

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Treasury Game Over… Again

The trend is your friend, and the Fed has gone soft. And traders know it. But there may be trouble in Primary Dealer Bond Land.

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Permanently High Plateau Bond Market Miracle

The Treasury has been pounding the market with supply since the debt ceiling was lifted in early August. Yet stock and bond markets have both rallied.

It’s a miracle! A leveraged levitation act!

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First Month Free and 90 Days Risk Free If You Join Now!

Get this report and access to past reports.  Read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Subscribe by 5:00 PM ET Monday,  September 9, and get the first month free!

Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

Who’s Paying to Suppress Jobs Number as Withholding Tax Collections Soar?

Withholding taxes soared for most of August, far in excess of indicated jobs growth. But the Treasury hasn’t even started to rebuild its cash account. Here’s what that means.

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First They Fall Asleep

The Treasury and the Fed are colluding to boil the bond investor frogs on a sunny sidewalk.

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Still No Sign of Recession in Current Federal Tax Data

Our purpose here is to examine Federal revenues and spending for any sign that the Fed would have any justification for a policy move. And again, there is none. A $119 billion deficit in July bought a lot of consumption, and a lot of economic output.

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Order before 5 PM ET on Monday, August 19 and get the first month free! If you cancel within 30 days, you will not be charged. 90 day money back guarantee period also applies from the intial signup date. This offer applies to first time subscribers only.

Game Over, But Always Look On The Bright Side of Life

The game is over.  The massive liquidity inflows from the US Treasury into dealer accounts that has fueled the stock and bond rallies since March will now turn into outflows. And the wave of speculative borrowing that has also fueled the rally looks spent. Either one of those factors alone would end the rallies. If speculators and dealers decide to reduce their leverage exposure, the results will be catastrophic.

But think of the fun you’ll have when you have all that cash to scoop up the bargains that ultimately will come.

These are the facts that led to this conclusion, and the best strategy to capitalize on it.

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Not a subscriber yet? Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

First Month Free and 90 Days Risk Free If You Join Today

Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader and Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Order before 9:00 PM Pacific Time on Monday, August 5 and get the first month free! If you cancel within 30 days, you will not be charged. 90 day money back guarantee period also applies from the intial signup date. This offer applies to first time subscribers only.

90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only.

July Tax Collection Data Still Solid – Aye, There’s The Rub!

Total tax collections rose in July, as did most components, including withholding. If the economy is materially weakening, it’s not showing up in real time tax collection data. The Fed’s rate cut makes no sense from that perspective, or any perspective. Is it the first step to a return to QE?

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First Month Free and 90 Days Risk Free If You Join Today

Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader and Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Order before 9:00 PM Pacific Time on Monday, August 5 and get the first month free! If you cancel within 30 days, you will not be charged. 90 day money back guarantee period also applies from the intial signup date. This offer applies to first time subscribers only.

90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only.