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Category: US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Still No Sign of Recession in Current Federal Tax Data

Lee Adler

Our purpose here is to examine Federal revenues and spending for any sign that the Fed would have any justification for a policy move. And again, there is none. A $119 billion deficit in July bought a lot of consumption, and a lot of economic output.

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Game Over, But Always Look On The Bright Side of Life

Lee Adler

The game is over.  The massive liquidity inflows from the US Treasury into dealer accounts that has fueled the stock and bond rallies since March will now turn into outflows. And the wave of speculative borrowing that has also fueled the rally looks spent. Either one of those factors alone would end the rallies. If speculators and dealers decide to reduce their leverage exposure, the results will be catastrophic.

But think of the fun you’ll have when you have all that cash to scoop up the bargains that ultimately will come.

These are the facts that led to this conclusion, and the best strategy to capitalize on it.

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July Tax Collection Data Still Solid – Aye, There’s The Rub!

Lee Adler

Total tax collections rose in July, as did most components, including withholding. If the economy is materially weakening, it’s not showing up in real time tax collection data. The Fed’s rate cut makes no sense from that perspective, or any perspective. Is it the first step to a return to QE?

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Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader and Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Order before 9:00 PM Pacific Time on Monday, August 5 and get the first month free! If you cancel within 30 days, you will not be charged. 90 day money back guarantee period also applies from the intial signup date. This offer applies to first time subscribers only.

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Into the Deluge – Panic Demand for Bonds Is Madness

Lee Adler

The Treasury paydown game has ended. A deluge of supply is coming. The Fed has panicked, ending its bloodletting program early, and without warning. And buyers are panicking into bonds, a move that they will live to regret, very quickly.

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The Deal Is Done, Get Ready To Rumble

Lee Adler

The debt ceiling deal is done. It only remains for the House and Senate to pass the deals and send it to the White House for signature. That’s due to happen next week.

The time to act is now.

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Federal Budget Deficit Simultaneously Stimulating and Eviscerating Won’t End Well

Lee Adler

They kicked the can into July, but it was there for all to see.  Here’s what it means for your investment strategy.

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June Federal Tax Data Shows Fed Has No Excuse – Chart Corrected

Lee Adler

NOTE: I neglected to insert the updated Withholding Tax chart in the report posted last night. The data and analysis was complete and update. Here’s the report with the updated chart. 

The tax data shows that the market rationale for the rallies in stocks and bonds is just plain wrong.  Here’s the proof, and what to do about it.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are Off The Charts DANGEROUS

Lee Adler

Primary Dealers continue to hold historically massive net long fixed income positions. They have purchased those positions using debt, resulting in huge increases in leverage.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

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Everything Looks Great When the US Treasury Pumps Cash Into the Market

Lee Adler

The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities that are being redeemed. That, in turn, continues to stoke demand for longer dated notes and bonds. It has also contributed to the demand for stocks.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

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We Knew the Treasury Paydowns Would Be Bullish, But What Now?

Lee Adler

Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt, short term T-bills in particular. I said that the paydowns “will continue until the end of Q2. That’s bullish for bonds, and possibly for stocks.”

But then I said that the picture changes radically in Q3. And that has not changed. Here’s what’s happened so far, what’s likely for the third quarter, and then the big change that’s coming. Having this information will help you to continue to take advantage of the market’s big move, and to be ready for when and how it’s likely to change.

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Get this report right now and read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.  Join by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Saturday, June 22 and get the first month free. Free first month, and 90 day risk free trial offer is for first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date.

 

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