Menu Close

Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Gold Consolidates, More Upside Ahead

Lee Adler

Gold and the miners are consolidating for more gains. Longer cycle projections range from xxxx  to xxxx (subscriber version).

Over the week ended February 28, 24 charts of the 52 mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. 46 had at least one sell signal. These are for swings of 3-5 weeks, so it merely suggests a short term correction for most stocks in the sector. Last week’s signals had also suggested a short term correction.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

So far, that’s how it looks. A screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Monday had 9 buy signals and 10 sells, which again suggests consolidation and range trading for the sector.

I rescreened the stocks that had at least one buy signal from last Tuesday through the week, for repeat buy signals on Friday and Monday. There were 4. I inspected those charts but did not feel that their setups were propitious for entry now.

Two picks on the list last week hit their stops and were closed. That will leave us with 6 open selections. All had gains. Including currently open picks and those closed last week the average gain was 8.7% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s up from 6.9% and average holding period of 19 calendar days the week before.

I’ve adjusted stops on all remaining picks. Charts below (subscriber version)..

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

See analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold looks good and so do the miners.

Gold is attacking important trend resistance around 1910. If it breaks through, the next target would be xxxx (subscriber version). The 9-12 month cycle projection is now xxxx, with a high projected between xxxx  and xxxx. However, the 13-17 week cycle projection has been met, suggesting  that a consolidation or pullback is likely in the short run… (subscriber version).

Over the  3 days Feb 16-18 since the last report, 16 charts of the 52 that I track had at least one buy signal. That’s still bullish. A screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Friday, had just two buy signals and 22 sells, as the sector pulled back. It suggests that a pullback or consolidation is due. I looked at the 2 stocks that had buy signals and took a pass on adding any to the list this week.

That will leave us with 8 open selections. All had small gains, with an average gain of 6.9% and average holding period of 19 calendar days. I’ve added or adjusted stops on all picks. Charts below.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Gold Set For Breakout, Mining Picks Turn Green – LINK CORRECTED

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strong push last week has turned the short to intermediate term outlook bullish. The numbers now portend … (subscriber version). Near term projections point to (subscriber version). The 10-12 month cycle projection points to (subscriber version).

Over the 5 days Feb 9-15, 33 charts of the 52 gold and silver mining stocks that I track had at least one buy signal. Just 19 had at least one sell signal. That’s a bullish tilt. However, looking at a screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Tuesday, there was just 1 buy signal and 16 sells, suggesting that a consolidation or pullback is due over the next week or two.

I screened those with prior buy signals over the past week for buy signals that triggered on Monday or Tuesday. There were 6, down from 25 the previous week. This is still solid considering that so many had triggered multiple short term buy signals the week before. Those with earlier multiple buy signals will mostly need to go through a complete short term cycle before coming around to the buy side again.

I then gave 6 that had second buy signals the eyeball test. Two were penny stocks, which I eliminated. I chose one that I liked the best to add to the list as shown on the table below.

That will leave us with 8 open selections. Of the 7 that were active last week, all had small gains, with an average gain of 4.0% and average holding period of 13 calendar days. I’ve added or adjusted stops on all picks that were on the list last week.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Waiting for Gold Oh

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Over the 4 days Feb 1-4, 45 charts of the 52 that I track, had at least one buy signal. That’s promising. I screened those with prior buy signals for buy signals that triggered on Monday. There were 25, indicating signal progression through several short term time frames. I then gave those the eyeball test. Many of them looked like they could move higher. I chose 3 that I liked the best to add to the list as shown on the table below. That will leave us with 7 open selections.

Looking at a screen of all 52 stocks in the group on Monday, there were 35 buy signals, before applying the filter of those that had signaled previously last week. It suggests that the group should be higher in a week or two than it is now.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Gold is Clueless

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold’s trading range is getting thinner, promoting violent moves within the range.

On the mining stocks, over the past week 33 charts had at least one buy signal and 39 had at least one sell signal. That means that many of the 52 stocks that I track in the sector had whipsaws. I screened each group with prior buy signals for buy signals that triggered on Tuesday. There were 24, which I then gave the eyeball test.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Good News On Gold

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The good news is that cycle projections are rising and all point higher. There are also some promising  picks among the miners. We’ve had 3 on the list already, and they’ve been moving up.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

Publication Schedule Note

Lee Adler

I have unfortunately gotten a few days behind schedule on publication this week. I am currently working on a Primary Dealer update which I’ll post tomorrow, at least in part. I will post the Gold Trader update on Wednesday instead of the usual Tuesday.

This week, I’m in the process of getting ready to end my extended stay in Warsaw, to finally realize my long term plan to move to Nice, France next next Monday. That has involved finding a place to stay temporarily. I intend to settle there after these two years of moving around Europe. So I’m also looking for a place to buy once I get there. All of the preparations for the move have been time consuming.

As an aside, if you ever want to come to the South of France, I know it fairly well, particularly Nice and its immediate environs. I would be happy to chat with you about it, and would love to meet if we have the opportunity. You can reach me by the contact form on the support page.

Meanwhile, I’m also in the process of selling my home in Florida. I’m personally managing that remotely. That’s also setting me back time wise.

The last time I sold a house in Florida, I top-ticked the market for my house type in my neighborhood in mid 2005. Hopefully, I’ll be as lucky this time. Last time I sold, I did so directly without an agent. Today, with Zillow, the commissioned sales agent becomes mostly unnecessary. With online selling so prevalent today, and someone available to let prospective buyers in, it’s well worth it to have buyers contact me via a website.

The downside is that getting the information out, and taking calls has interrupted my workflow, which is frustrating because I want to give you consistent, high quality service. So I do apologize for being a few days later than usual in getting these reports out to you. I’ll do my best to stay as close to the regular schedule as I can during these transition weeks.

And I’ll try to make up for what I can’t do in quantity, by increasing the quality!  😁

As always, thanks for your patience and support!

Lee

Go to the post

Gold Positioned To Pop

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold There are signs of cycles getting in gear to the upside, but no sign of thrust yet. Initial upside projections point to xxxx – xxxx (in subscriber version).  Gold needs to clear xxxx to break the 13 week cycle MA and signal at least a little more upside in the short run.

On the very long term monthly chart, gold remains above a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx range (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI has broken its 6 month cycle MA. Here’s what that implies for the outlook (in subscriber version)..

On the ultra long term monthly chart, HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. With HUI ending December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target is xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. It faces major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – The numbers surged over the past week but 6 month cycles remained deeply negative. That needs to show much more improvement for us to have confidence that there will be an extended rally. But this is a start. So I’m continuing to nibble.

I’ve tweaked the method to use screens from each day of the past week instead of just the last day of the weekly period. Charts that show up more than once, with buy signals yesterday are preferred. From that list I pick those with structures I like. This week I’m adding one to the list as shown below.  I’m staying with the existing picks, and allowing breathing room with no, or very loose stops. Currently open picks show an average gain of 9.4% on an average holding period of 3 weeks.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

What the Signs of Emerging Gold Would Be

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold Cycles remain mixed with still no sign of an imminent breakout from the trading range. Here are the levels to watch.for signs of emergence (in subscriber version).

On the very long term monthly chart, gold remains above a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx range (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI has broken its 6 month cycle MA. Here’s what that implies for the outlook (in subscriber version)..

On the ultra long term monthly chart, HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. With HUI ending December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target is xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. It faces major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – Short term screens for chart pick purposes did a little better. They’re more sensitive, more oriented toward swing trade timing than the longer cycle screens which have done so poorly. 12 of the 51 charts screened had signals, and 11 were on the buy side. I liked one of them enough to add to the list as shown on the table.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post

When Boring Isn’t Bullish – Gold

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold Boring trading ranges are often long term bullish. But this is gold. Cycles remain mixed with still no sign of an imminent breakout from the trading range. Short term, the most likely direction is xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).

On the very long term monthly chart, gold nears the end of December at a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI is holding precariously at the 6 month cycle MA. xxxx xx xxxxx are the parameters to watch this week for signs of big trouble.

On the ultra long term monthly chart HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. If HUI ends December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target could be xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. Even if above xxxx, it would still face major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – Two weeks ago, we added 3 picks to the list, and they’ve done ok as shown in the table below.

Today, there were 4 buys and 31 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Monday’s action. The rest had no signal. The big edge to the sell side isn’t a good sign. Even the 4 charts with buy signals weren’t inspiring. So I added no new picks.

Because of the weakness in the screening data and the fact that most stocks remain in longer term downtrends. I’ve added tight stops to the existing picks.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Go to the post
%d bloggers like this: