Liquidity measured the way markets actually work.
The Fed’s M2 is monthly, lags by weeks, excludes institutional money funds, and includes non-liquid instruments like CDs. It misses the money that matters most: the funds sitting in brokerage accounts, money market funds, and advisor platforms that convert instantly and seamlessly into stock and bond trades.
Market Money™ tracks exactly that. Compiled from public data that no one else is assembling, it combines weekly Fed bank deposit data with retail and institutional money fund flows, giving a timelier and more market-relevant read on available buying power than any government measure provides.
Understanding that context, money managers and investors can recognize the conditions that drive markets and make timing decisions with confidence. Advanced Cycle Analytics provides the second input: Hurst cycle theory applied to approximately 1,900 stocks weekly, identifying where in the cycle individual equities and major indices stand. The two together form a complete, coherent view.
Macroliquidity™ Analysis
Proprietary measures built from public data no one else is compiling. Market Money™ captures brokerage-attached funds, retail and institutional money market flows, and weekly Fed deposit data, giving a more timely and market-relevant read on available buying power than M2 ever will.
Advanced Cycle Analytics
Hurst cycle theory applied through linear regression channels and a Cycle Wave Composite screening approximately 1,900 stocks weekly across nine criteria. Timing context grounded in the liquidity backdrop.
The calls that mattered.
A 25-year published record means every call is on the tape. Here are the ones worth knowing about before you subscribe.
Called the crash in advance
Warned subscribers while Wall Street consensus held. Deteriorating liquidity conditions were visible in the data long before price confirmed them.
Called the bull market bottom
Within weeks of the Fed’s first large-scale Treasury purchases, identified that QE would drive a sustained multi-year advance. Called the turn when fear was at its peak.
First to chart the Fed balance sheet against the S&P 500
Published direct comparison of Fed balance sheet expansion and equity prices in real time. A framework the broader analytical community adopted several years later.
Identified backdoor debt monetization
Reported on how QE directly funded massive Treasury supply — a structural dynamic most analysts missed across the full decade of the program.
COVID crash warning — and the recovery call
Flagged deteriorating conditions before the crash. Then recognized that the Fed’s policy response would be powerfully and durably bullish.
Years observing markets
Years of published subscription research
Analyst. No team. No editorial board.
One analyst. The full picture.
I started watching markets in the late 1960s. I launched Liquidity Trader in 1999 because conventional analysis was ignoring the most important variable: the supply of money available to drive asset prices.
In 2009, I was the first to chart the Fed’s balance sheet directly against the S&P 500 and publish what it meant in real time. The relationship was obvious once you looked at it together. Most of the analytical community took several more years to look.
I work alone. No team, no editorial board, no institutional pressure to stay close to consensus. You get one analyst’s unfiltered read on the monetary conditions driving markets, backed by a longer continuous published record than most services in this space can claim.
Who this is for.
Right for you if —
- You manage your own capital and take it seriously
- You want to understand why markets move, not just where they have been
- You’re frustrated by analysis that ignores monetary conditions
- You think independently and want a rigorous framework
- You’re willing to read carefully and form your own judgment
Not for you if —
- You want trade alerts with precise entry and exit prices
- You expect every call to be right in the short term
- You’re looking for hot tips or momentum plays
- You want reassurance rather than analysis
Choose your service.
Most subscribers take the combined service. The individual components are available separately for those with a specific focus.
Integrated Edge
The complete service. Macroliquidity analysis and Advanced Cycle Analytics together — the way the framework is designed to be used. Liquidity sets the conditions. Cycles identify the timing.
- Macroliquidity™ reports — 3 to 5 per month on Fed operations, Treasury supply, and systemic liquidity conditions
- Advanced Cycle Analytics — weekly updates on major indices and individual equities via the Cycle Wave Composite
- Full archive access — 25 years of published analysis, on the record
Individual components — for subscribers with a specific focus:
Macroliquidity™
Federal Reserve tracking, Treasury supply analysis, and systemic liquidity flow. The upstream conditions that drive markets. 3 to 5 reports per month.
Advanced Cycle Analytics
Hurst cycle analysis applied to major indices and the Cycle Wave Composite stock screen. Weekly updates on timing and market structure.
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The money supply doesn’t lie.
Start reading it.
Join subscribers who have relied on Liquidity Trader’s independent analysis through every major market cycle since 1999.
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