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Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees

Gold is now working on a test of the low. Obviously, it needs to hold, otherwise, this could get a lot worse over the next few months. For example, a breakdown below xxxx would imply a target in the mid xxxx range.

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The screens for short term swing trades were again terrible over the past week. Unlike the above screens, which evaluate current cycle status, these screens look only for new signals indicating a change of short term trend. Looking back over the past week, there were only 3 charts that made the cut on the buy side. Conversely, there were 15 Sells. That’s not a good ratio, although not as bad as the previous week when the score was 3 buys to 35 on the sell side.

The last step in the process is to eyeball the charts on the buy side. One of the 3 was a penny stock. I’m not interested. One of the other two (xxx) was a falling knife setup at support. Sorry, no interest. The other (xxxx) might be a base. Might not. It isn’t a terrible setup, but wasn’t solid enough to entice me in this environment.

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Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday

Primary dealers have finally taken aggressive action to mitigate the losses in their bond portfolios. But it is too late. The damage is done, and the pressure will only get worse as the Fed pulls money out of the banking system and forces the Treasury to borrow even more money to pay off the Fed.

In everything we look at in the Primary Dealer positions and related data we see only stress and more stress. This is unfolding exactly as we expected. There are no secrets here. We knew all this was coming simply by watching the data and Fed policy as we have month in and month out. It only proves again and again, Rule Number One. Don’t fight the Fed.

Shockingly, the Dealers seem not to have followed the Rule, and now they’re screwed, and so is the world of investors. For those who can’t sell short, there are no good options. No pun intended.

Meanwhile, the Fed will need to raise its Fake Funds rate by 75 BP this week to keep up with the market. It’s already there as liquidity conditions tighten rapidly and dramatically.

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Swing Trade Screens – Yes, More Shorts But There Are Limits, You Know

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 5 charts with multiple buy signals, and 118 with more than one sell signal. Of the 5 buys, 4 were inverse funds. Therefore the signals were actually bearish. And the final one was a precious metals ETF. Now, there’s a ringing endorsement for this market!

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were just 5 buy signals, which, likewise, were all inverse ETFs and a gold ETF. There were 85 sell signals on Friday.

This is like the previous Friday, which also had an overwhelming preponderance of sell signals.

With 118 sells to choose from today, I found plenty of short sale candidates. The problem is that the market got way ahead of us this morning. So I whittled the list down from more than a dozen to just 5, and I will only start those if they hit a limit price equivalent their low price on Friday. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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I would not want to follow the usual procedure of just adding them as of Monday’s opening price. Even though they would be likely to work out well over a few weeks, there’s a good chance that Monday’s open will be near the low of the day. An ensuing face ripping dead cat bounce would put these deep in the hole to start if entered on the open. So the entries will be conditioned on trading at those limit prices at some point during the week. Then I’ll adjust on the fly next Monday.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 8.4% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.2% per week.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Five picks hit their stops last week. All were longs. The average gain on the picks that hit stops was 9.3%. Three picks remained open. All were shorts. I have adjusted stops on the open picks.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 3 picks plus the 5 conditional picks. The 3 existing picks are all short (tank-gawd). The 5 new picks are also shorts, of course.

I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new picks have limit entry prices, they don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week to any that are opened based on hitting their limit prices.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

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Remain Calm, All Is Hell

All hell has broken loose overnight on Sunday night, Monday morning. The S&P futures are already trading at 3820, which is the bottom of the broad intermediate downtrend channel on this chart. The May low has already been broken on the futures. This market is going lower.

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Cycles- If the market stays below xxxx this week, it would mean that the slopes of t he bigger waves are accelerating to the downside. The 6 month cycle lower edgeband will be at xxxx this week. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle should have a dead cat bounce at some point this week. Short term cycles are due to xxxxx xxxx this week. But any xxxxxxx should be followed by xxxx xxxxxx xxxxx over a protracted period. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx. There’s no 13 week cycle projection yet. The 4 week cycle projection points to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

13 week and 6 month cycle lows are ideally due in xxxxxxxxxxxx. Any rebounds before that should be xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx. The downtrend must be xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Rule Number Two – The trend is your friend. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – There are two critical support lines around xxxx. If the market breaks xxxx, this could turn into something the likes of which we have not seen since October 1987. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market is headed for a test of major support in the xxxx-xxxx range this week. Breaking that range would imply a long term measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The target should be approximately xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate crashed last week. This breaks the previous short term and intermediate term bullish patterns. 6 month cycle measures are both firmly on the sell side. This will take some weeks to repair, and it is likely to get worse before that repair begins.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Like Pulling Gold Teeth

The trading range goes on and on, but our two mining picks are doing ok.

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Swing Trade Screens – Dipping A Short Toe Before the Next Big Wave

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 18 charts with multiple buy signals, and 57 with more than one sell signal. On Friday alone there were just 20 buy signals and 113 sell signals.

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Those two stats suggest a weak week. But as I pointed out in this week’s market update, the broad market indicators suggest that the up phase should still have a little life before it rolls over. With that context, I said that I’d be cautious about adding shorts.

With 57 sells to choose from, it was hard to resist picking short sales. There were a few that I liked. They’re probably a little early, but the risk reward potential over time seems good. So I chose 3 to add to the list as of Monday’s opening price, xx, xxx, and xxxx. Each would seem to have a bearish narrative as well. Not that that matters, but it enhances my comfort level with the choices.

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Not that that matters, either. 😁

Last week, the list had an average gain of 8% with an average holding period of 2½ weeks, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.3% per week.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Last week’s overall performance was down from +11% with a similar holding period, in the previous week. We expected this.

5/31/22 We have to be careful though. We’ve seen previously that when the list has double digit gains, the stocks on the list have reversed sharply. So I continue to tighten stops to close out the pick at an opportune time and protect profits.

Three picks did hit their stops last week. All were longs. One had a nice gain, but it was canceled out by two losers. Five picks remain open. Four have gains. I have again adjusted stops on the open picks.

Meanwhile, picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That works out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. The 3 longs all came since May 16.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 8 picks including the 3 new picks. The 5 older picks are all longs. The 3 new picks are shorts.

I’ve again adjusted stop levels to protect profits and close out picks as they age. The new picks don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.


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Here’s Why It’s Too Soon to Go Short Again (Mostly)

I may regret this headline when I go through the chart pick screens this morning, but at least we have a context. If a chart is ambiguous, I want to come down on the side of caution in terms or whether or not to short. At the same time, xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx, xxx the individual setup would need to be very powerful for me to want to try to board the bull train at this stage of the rally. Besides, we’re already on it.

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Cycles- Short term cycles are due to top out between xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxx, with projected highs of xxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. But it’s too early for the 13 week and 6 month cycles to top out and roll over. Ideally that would happen in xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxx.

Of course we don’t live in an ideal world, so we need to be alert for signs of an earlier peak.

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Third Rail Channels – Potential intermediate term trend resistance starts the week at xxxx and drops by approximately 15 points per day to xxxx on Friday. If that’s cleared, then the target would be resistance around xxxx-xx. Below xxxx-xx, there’s nothing but air to around xxxx.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The turn in late May suggested an intermediate bottom. The rally is also what I call a “return to the scene of the crime,” where the market rallies back to the area of a technical breakdown. The rally could extend to xxxx without negating the negative implications of the breakdown. Any higher would call that into question.

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Monthly Chart – The SPX stabilized above a long term uptrend line at xxxx at the end of May,. If it breaks , the target would be approximately xxxx. If it holds look for resistance around xxxx.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate formed a double peak with the March high. However, the number remains strongly positive; the short term pattern xxxx xxxxxxx, and the intermediate term pattern xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. The market would need to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Monday and/or Tuesday to xxxxxxxxxx short term xxxxxxxxx pattern.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May

Federal tax collections plunged in May, withholding taxes in particular. Those worried about a slowing economy now have real data to back them up. In fact, the consensus of worried economists isn’t worried enough. That consensus is for a gain of 328,000 jobs, versus 428,000 in April. But regardless of what the BLS’s, seasonally adjusted, randomized, and otherwise statistically tortured non farm payrolls report shows, the reality is much worse.

That reality is tax collections—actual hard data, in real time, and not statistically massaged. And they were down. Big time.

This means that, if reported accurately, subsequent economic data reports will be weak. They should show economic contraction. So the economy is contracting but inflation isn’t yet. Bad combination. But it’s not enough to give the Fed an excuse to reverse policy.

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The Fed typically isn’t quick enough on the trigger to respond to economic trend changes, and it has not yet shown any propensity to rescue the financial markets in this cycle.

I’ve warned about this before. Eventually weakening financial markets would trigger economic weakening. These two facets of the monetary coin are tied at the hip. Central bank tightening triggers visible effects first in the financial markets. But nearly concurrent effects, or at most slightly lagging, occur in economic activity. They’re just not as visible and as obvious at first. Mostly because economic data lags. But also because the initial economic changes are more subtle than the more visible changes in stock and bond prices and yields.

Furthermore, government agency statistical manipulation of the data adds a random element that often creates the misimpression that the economy is doing better or worse than it is. We don’t have that problem with the tax data. It is what it is.

Now we have the first real, hard data that shows that the economy is in fact weakening, along with the financial markets. But we have yet to see any evidence that inflation is coming down.

The Fed is now in that Catch 22 phase that we knew had to come. And because of the fraudulent way that the Federal Government economic reporting agencies report inflation, the popular inflation gauges will lag as inflation moderates.

The Fed will follow the reported data, so it will be slow to respond to disinflation, when it comes, just as it was slow to respond to inflation, even after it was obvious. The Fed just refused to believe. It will likely be equally disbelieving in accepting the first signs of disinflation.

So the adverse monetary conditions are likely to persist until after financial markets have passed the point of no return. Don’t pin your hopes on economic weakness to rescue the markets. Stay focused on monetary policy, and on liquidity. This report show exactly what the real data is telling us. It shows the impact of that, the implications for the trends of stock and bond prices, and it gives you clear analysis about what to do about it to protect, and even grow your capital under these conditions.

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Gold, Not a Good Look

There’s no reason for panic, yet. But a new 9-12 month cycle projection is scary.

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Quantitative Tightening is Here, and the Effect Will Be Devastating

At its May meeting, the Fed announced the beginning of its program to shrink its balance sheet. That program is colloquially known as QT or Quantitative Tightening. It will begin with reductions of $30 billion per month in its Treasury holdings, and $17.5 billion per month in its MBS holdings. That will last through August. Then in September it plans to go to $60 billion per month in reductions of Treasuries, and $35 billion in reductions of MBS.

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For comparison, under Janet Yellen’s attempt to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet in 2017-2019, the peak monthly reduction was $30 billion per month in Treasuries, and $20 billion in MBS.
That resulted in plenty of havoc in the markets, and Powell was forced to abandon the process in 2019.

This new attempt is a big deal, because through this program, the Fed will actually pull money out of the banking system at a time when the system is already under duress. Inflation is raging, and bond prices have been plummeting, and yields surging, for 22 months. Banks have hidden losses on their books from that. Those losses will start to be recognized as the Fed puts additional pressure on the system.

Stocks have also been cratering. Financial markets are likely to become even weaker than we have already seen as the Fed embarks on this additional level of tightening. As stock and leveraged bond portfolios decline in value, there will be margin calls. And that will exacerbate the situation.

Not only will the Fed now not be the biggest buyer of Treasuries in the market, it will force the US Treasury to issue even more supply. By demanding that the Treasury repay a portion of the money that the Fed lent it via its purchases of Treasury securities, the Fed will force the Treasury to sell more debt to the public to raise the cash to repay the Fed. That cash will then be extinguished. It will leave the banking system and be gone. Poof. Just like that.

At the same time the Treasury will continue to need cash to fund its regular outlays.

Recently, the TBAC (Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) has raised its forecast for tax revenue and lowered its estimate of Treasury supply. As usual with economic forecasts, they are backward looking and ignore current, actual conditions. The booming tax revenue trend that we saw beginning over a year ago is already showing signs of weakness in the economic component that is hidden by the inflation component. If revenues are not up to expectations, Treasury supply will increase beyond the modest levels that the TBAC expects. But even those levels are sufficient to pressure the markets.

The money to repay the Treasury’s debt to the Fed will have to come from somewhere, and that somewhere will be investors, banks, and dealers. They’ll need to liquidate other securities, and other assets of all kinds.

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This report will show you in charts and clear discussion, how we got here, where we are, exactly where the markets are headed, and what you can do about it to protect your assets, and even grow your capital in the dangerous, even deadly, months ahead. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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