| One Analyst Observing Markets since 1968 |
One Analyst Publishing Proprietary Research since 2000 |
One Analyst. Independent. No Committee. No Consensus. |
The Fed’s M2 is monthly, lags by weeks, and it excludes institutional money funds. Meanwhile, it includes non-liquid instruments like CDs. It misses the money that matters most: the funds sitting in brokerage accounts, money market funds, and advisor platforms that convert instantly and seamlessly into stock and bond trades.
Liquidity Trader’s Market Money™ tracks exactly that. Compiled from public data that no one else is assembling, it combines weekly Fed bank deposit data with retail and institutional money fund balances, giving a timelier and more market-relevant read on available buying power than any government measure provides.
Understanding that context, money managers and investors can recognize the conditions that drive markets and make timing decisions with confidence.
Advanced Cycle Analytics provides the second input: Hurst cycle theory applied to the broad market averages every week, identifying where in the cycle the major indices stand, and whether the move is broad or confined to a few big stocks.
The two disciplines together form a complete, coherent view.
Lee Adler's analysis is a more accurate perspective on the real forces of money and liquidity that drive markets. For example, his Market Money™ measure captures brokerage-attached funds, retail and institutional money market balances, and Fed weekly total bank deposit data, giving a more timely and market-relevant read on available buying power than M2 does. This measure is built from public data no one else is compiling.
Beyond that, Adler has developed and refined a host of monetary, fiscal, and government debt measures that give you a clear, proprietary view of how money is created, not just for the markets, but created by the markets. This perspective sets the context for you to understand market trends clearly, in particular, where these trends are headed, and the impacts they will have on the financial markets.
Lee Adler has steadily built on and refined the art and science of market cycle analysis since 1970, when he first became familiar with the seminal work of JM Hurst on stock market cycles.
Starting with hand drawn graphs in 1971, through his initial use of computer charting in 1983, and his adoption of AI tools beginning in 2024, Lee has always been an early adopter of technology to consistently refine the methodology of market timing analysis.
Using his advanced, proprietary technical tools, his work shows you exactly how conventional support, resistance, and trends develop. Those tools then project existing waves forward to show where they are likely to lead in multiple time frames. You get groundbreaking, proprietary Volatility Adjusted Cycle Wave Charts with the proprietary Cycle Wave Composite ™ oscillators, along with concise descriptive analysis, to show you the way.
A 25-year published record means every call is on the tape. Here are the ones worth knowing about before you subscribe.
Warned subscribers while Wall Street consensus held. Deteriorating liquidity conditions were visible in the data long before price confirmed them.
Within weeks of the Fed's first large-scale Treasury purchases, by early April identified that QE would tilt the playing field toward a sustained bull market. Called the turn when fear of bearish relapse was at its peak.
Published direct comparison of Fed balance sheet expansion and equity prices in real time. A framework the broader analytical community adopted several years later.
Reported on how QE directly funded massive Treasury supply — a structural dynamic most analysts missed across the full decade of the program.
Flagged deteriorating conditions before the crash. Then recognized that the Fed's policy response would be powerfully and durably bullish.
I started watching markets as a teenager in the late 1960s. I launched Liquidity Trader in 2000 because I saw a great bubble that was ready to pop, and I wanted to warn investors about it. Conventional analysis was ignorant about the most important forces: the trend of money available to drive asset prices, and the role that speculative cycles play.
In 2009, I was the first to chart the Fed's balance sheet directly against the S&P 500 and publish what it meant in real time. The relationship was obvious once you looked at it together. Most of the analytical community took several more years to look.
I work alone. No team, no editorial board, no institutional pressure to stay close to consensus. You get one analyst's unfiltered read on the monetary conditions and speculative cycles driving markets, backed by a 26 year continuous published record, a record that few services in this space can claim.
Most subscribers take the combined service. The individual components are available separately for those with a specific focus.
The complete service. Macroliquidity analysis and Advanced Cycle Analytics together — the way the framework is designed to be used. Liquidity sets the conditions. Cycles identify the timing.
Individual components — for subscribers with a specific focus:
Federal Reserve tracking, Treasury supply analysis, and systemic liquidity flow. The upstream conditions that drive markets. 3 to 5 reports per month.
Hurst cycle analysis applied to major indices and the Cycle Wave Composite stock screen. Weekly updates on timing and market structure.
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Join subscribers who have relied on Liquidity Trader's independent analysis through every major market cycle since 1999.
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