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Gold is still trending but cycle indicators suggest growing risk. Mining stock picks have pulled back to hit profit taking trailing stops while 2 picks are still being swung. This report provides a detailed cycle-based analysis, highlighting critical levels and trend shifts that could impact the market.
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The S&P is testing resistance at 6135 after holding support last week. Clearing this level could push it quickly to xxxx, with a measured target at xxxx. Support ranges from xxxx-xxxx, with a close below xxxx signaling an intermediate top.
Key Outlook:
A breakout could see the S&P reach xxxx in March, while a rollover targets xxxx. A close above xxxx would clear the way to xxxx, while a close below xxxx would confirm a top.
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My proprietary cycle screens returned 1094 charts that met ideal major trend buy setup criteria last week. That’s out of 1542 that met minimum price and volume criteria. This doesn’t necessarily imply that a big bull move is coming. It merely means that most stocks had fallen to test major support and rebounded to finish above those support levels. That’s typically a short term bullish setup. This is the second straight such weekly reading. I would judge it to be a single episode spread over two weeks.
2/8/25 After a long bull run, the first pullback to support almost never results in a major reversal, but it could be the start of a topping process that could ultimately result in a subsequent breakdown.
Drilling down, there were 268 stocks that met intermediate buy side criteria and 165 that hit short term buy triggers over the course of the week.
248 charts met ideal major sell criteria on the week, which is an increase from 108 the week before. That means that they rose to long term resistance and were rebuffed. 158 had intermediate term sell setups. 57 hit short term sell triggers.
The weekly numbers were bullish on balance, with buys having a lopsided edge over sells. But there were still apparent opportunities on the short side.
Looking at just Friday’s data among the major and intermediate buy setups, there were 74 short term buys triggered versus 23 sells. 21 of the buys were fixed income securities ETFs. That’s consistent with the conclusion in Liquidity Trader reports
On visual review I liked 3 of the buys and 5 of the shorts as shown on the table in the subscriber report.
Seven existing picks hit trailing stop prices during the week. 6 of them had gains. The average gain was 19.3% with an average holding period of 22 calendar days. Including open picks still on the list as of Friday’s close the list showed an average gain of 11.7% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days versus 7.9% with an average holding period of 13 calendar days the previous week.
I have designated 4 shorts to be covered as of Tuesday’s (first trading day of holiday week) opening prices. Net of those, this week the list starts with 15 open and new picks of which 5 are longs and 10 are shorts.
I am adding or adjusting stops most remaining picks as shown on the table on the next page (subscriber report).
The latest Liquidity Trader – Money Trends Macro Liquidity Report by Lee Adler is now available. Subscribers, click here to download the report.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. Treasury’s supply outlook from February to April 2025, featuring the issuance schedule with estimated net new supply for each issue, as well as the impact of T-bill paydowns, the role of the Fed’s RRP facility, and debt ceiling uncertainties, including a forecast date when the US Treasury will run out of cash.
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Gold’s short-term cycles have entered a trending phase, with mining stocks following suit. This report provides a detailed cycle-based analysis, highlighting critical levels and trend shifts that could impact the market.
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The market is at a critical inflection point, and traders are watching closely. Will we see a breakout to new highs, or is downside risk building beneath the surface?
🔎 Is the S&P 500 testing a make-or-break level?
🔎 Are long-term market cycles signaling a shift?
🔎 What indicators are traders watching right now?
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The market remains rangebound, with key resistance at xxxx and support at xxxx. A breakout could target xxxx, while a failure may lead to xxxx. Long-term cycles indicate a potential xxxx, but no decisive xxxxx signal yet. A xxxxx move xxxx resistance could xxxxx the bull market, while a failure at xxxxx could trigger a significant decline. Watch for confirmation signals xxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers can click here to access a full access trial subscription.
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The latest Technical Trader – Weekly Chart Picks provides a quantitative breakdown of institutional-grade trade setups across equity markets. Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle screens flagged 1,031 major trend buy setups last week, but is this a signal for sustained upside, or the early stages of distribution?
📊 Liquidity & Market Structure – Stocks tested and rebounded off major support, but with a deteriorating buy/sell ratio, is the tape shifting?
📈 Long Setups: 108 Intermediate Buys, 70 Short-Term Triggers – Strength concentrated in select sectors, but conviction remains mixed.
📉 Short Setups: 108 Major Sells, 165 Intermediate Sell Signals – Heavy rejection at resistance zones suggests increased downside risk.
🚨 Friday’s Close: 30 Buy vs. 52 Sell Signals – A growing imbalance in supply/demand dynamics.
🚀 Great short-term entry points can lead to excellent long-term holds. Many institutional trades begin as tactical setups but evolve into high-conviction, trend-following positions. Liquidity Trader’s insights help identify short-term opportunities that can grow into sustainable, long-term winners.
Built for Institutional Capital & Professional Traders
Designed for hedge funds, PE firms, bank trading desks, and portfolio managers, this report is backed by decades of market cycle analysis, liquidity insights, and evolving technical algorithms drawn from Lee Adler’s 60 years technical charting experience assisted by AI.
🔹 Real-time access to institutional-grade setups:
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Our proprietary cycle screens returned 1031 charts that met ideal major trend buy setup criteria last week. That’s out of 1480 that met minimum price and volume criteria. It is an enormous number but it doesn’t necessarily imply that a big bull move is coming. It merely means that most stocks had fallen to test major support and rebounded to finish above those support levels. That’s typically a short term bullish setup. After a long bull run, the first pullback to support almost never results in a major reversal, but it could be the start of a topping process that could ultimately result in a subsequent breakdown.
Drilling down, there were only 108 stocks that met intermediate buy side criteria and just 70 hit short term buy triggers over the course of the week.
There were 108 that met ideal major sell criteria on the week. That means that they rose to long term resistance and were rebuffed. 165 had intermediate term sell setups, which is significantly more than intermediate buys. 131 hit short term sell triggers, nearly double the short term buy triggers.
Looking at just Friday’s data, there were 30 short term buy signals and 52 on the sell side.
Among the major and intermediate buy setups, 21 short term buys triggered versus 4 sells on Friday. So it is a mixed bag overall, not a picture that suggests easy pickings.
On visual review I liked just one of the buys and none of the shorts as shown on the table in the subscriber report.
Two existing picks hit stop prices during the week and one short had been noted to be covered as of the opening price last week. I have designated 1 sell and 1 short cover as of Monday’s opening prices. I am adding stops to the remaining picks. Last week the list showed an average gain of 7.9% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days versus 5.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days the previous week. This week the list starts with 18 open picks of which 6 are longs and 12 are shorts. Last week there were 17 open picks to start, of which 9 were longs and 8 were shorts.
Is the Market on the Brink of a Major Move? The Answer Lies in This Overlooked Data…
Withholding tax collections just made a surprising rebound, signaling a shift that could rock markets in the weeks ahead. But is it a sign of strength—or a ticking time bomb? 🤔
📊 Here’s What You Need to Know:
✅ Tax revenues are surging—what does it mean for liquidity?
✅ Corporate tax collections show record-breaking profits—but will the House and the whales cash out?
✅ The debt ceiling wildcard—how long can the Treasury prop up this market before the dam breaks?
💡 Savvy traders and investors are already positioning ahead of the next big move. Don’t get caught off guard.
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Lee Adler