Lee AdlerWithholding tax collections rose year-over-year as of June 2, but the underlying trend has been weakening since December. Despite a short-term rebound, the muted bounce points to recession risk, especially given disruptions from tariffs.
May was a month of underperformance but June is off to a positive start. As of the close on June 3, the average gain of stocks on the list was 3.6% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days Buy signals predominated over the past week, but this looks like a setup for a final stage rally, with higher than usual risk.
The Treasury’s aggressive T-bill paydowns have acted as synthetic QE, injecting liquidity into the financial system and fueling a powerful stock market rally since April. This has all been foreseeable, and has played out as forecast. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is now declining rapidly, and that will lead to big problems.
A critical test is underway: if the market clears xxxxx xxxxx, projections as high as xxxx would still be viable. A failure at xxxx, however, would open the door to reversal across multiple time frames. The models xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xx key thresholds. Traders should be alert for confirmation either way.
Top formation is due xxxx xxxxxx on short-term cycles. The intermediate uptrend is still intact, and will remain so provided that a pullback holds above xxxx. More fireworks look likely through the summer, with a xxxxxx xxxxx high expected in the xxxx xxxxx time frame. 4 mining picks added to the chart pick list last week got off to a good start.
The markets are playing Tariff Whack a Mole while the cycle model runs in the background, drowned out by all the market noise. The markets are thin, and the tariff news pops up randomly and repeatedly to move prices a long way in an instant.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
Another Presidential tariff twist triggered a sharp rally in Europe on Memorial Day. So far, it doesn’t change any of the conclusions in this report, which was drafted before the rally. We must become accustomed to moves driven by increasingly frequent external noise, sometimes pro-cyclical and sometimes counter, and fostered by an increasingly thin market. This move appears countercyclical relative to cycles up to 13 weeks, and within a topping process of the 6-month and longer cycles. The resistance levels cited in the report would need to be broken to signal a material change in the short-term outlook.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
This rally has been a grinder. Since it began, setups have been harder to trust, in a market driven more by headlines than structure. I’ve been too cautious, as short-term waves reversed with near unprecedented ferocity. But the charts are starting to look more normal. This week, I found five shorts I liked and 3 longs. This is still cycle-based with rigorous questioning of setups, while finding more that I’m comfortable adding to the list.
The market is still riding a powerful meltup, and short and intermediate-term cycle projections are pointing even higher than they were last week. The Moody’s downgrade has triggered a pullback this morning, but the selloff must follow through to break trend. Otherwise, the index remains on course for potential exhaustion targets above xxxx—even as the Cycle Wave Composite and long-term structures warn that this remains a topping process.
AI Agent Directed By Lee AdlerThe current Macro Liquidity Report lays out the mechanics behind the current rally and the conditions that will reverse it. T-bill paydowns have injected over…