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Ponzi Much? Understanding Treasury Debt and Market Fragility

The US government will sell T-bills this week in exactly the amount that it withdrew to pay interest on the Federal debt on November 15. Coincidence? I think not. But while it makes a point, the real issue is in the ability of an extended financial system to withstand the drumbeat of Treasury supply. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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That system is at an all-time record in size and in relation to stock prices, moving relentlessly in the same upward direction as the Treasury issues more and more debt. The fragility seems to be able to grow endlessly. The game can go on until it can’t. Our job here is to be on the lookout for any signs that it is reaching that point. It’s getting closer but we haven’t yet reached that inflection point. This report shows you what to look for in the charts of the crucial banking and liquidity indicators.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Short-Term Gold Miner Buys for Gold Bull Market

We got the short term low, but there should still be more work to do for 13 week and 6 month cycle lows to complete. The long term uptrend remains intact. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

As of November 7 the list was empty and I added nothing last week, so avoided the post election carnage. But we were empty-handed for yesterday’s rally. It triggered 41 short term buys.  After applying long term structural and intermediate trend filters, there were 4 that were still standing. I chose 3 from that list and a 4th that also looked promising, to add to the list for this week. They were xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Charts in subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails.  Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Effective Trading Strategies: Buys and Sells This Week

There were 611 short-term sells and 222 short-term buys in the screens this week. After applying long term and intermediate term filters, there were 20 buys and 23 sells. The overwhelming number of short term sell signals were filtered out by the longer term cycle status and trend structures. In other words, to the screening algos, they looked too early to short. But we’ll be watching. We already have several on the list. No doubt there will be more in the weeks and months ahead. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On visual review I liked 3 of the buys and added them to the list. I chose none of the short sale candidates this week. To view the list and charts of open picks, non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On visual review there were 17 buys that I liked. That was too many to add to the list so I chose 6 that I liked best. I chose 4 to add as shorts.

Including open picks as of November 15, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 5.6% on average holding period of 15 calendar days. That was down slightly from 5.8% the previous week, but with a reduction of the average holding period from 21 calendar days to 15. 

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails. If you use those services, please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Quiet But Ominous Signs of Early Bull Demise

Signs of a potentially extended up phase have disappeared. The up phases in cycles from 13 weeks to 10-12 months are now tenuous, with most indicators for those cycles nearing a flip to the sell side. Here are the signs you should look for. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Melts 11/12/24

Gold melted down, but it can resolidify.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – More Buys and a Few Shorts- Link Corrected

There were 308 short-term buys and 245 short-term sells in the screens this week. After applying long term and intermediate term filters, there were 92 buys and 73 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On visual review there were 17 buys that I liked. That was too many to add to the list so I chose 6 that I liked best. I chose 4 to add as shorts.

Including open picks as of November 11, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 5.8% on average holding period of calendar days. That gain was up from +2.7% the previous week, on an average holding period of 22 calendar days the prior week.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Swing Trade Screen Picks – More Buys and a Few Shorts- Link Corrected

There were 308 short-term buys and 245 short-term sells in the screens this week. After applying long term and intermediate term filters, there were 92 buys and 73 sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On visual review there were 17 buys that I liked. That was too many to add to the list so I chose 6 that I liked best. I chose 4 to add as shorts.

Including open picks as of November 11, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 5.8% on average holding period of calendar days. That gain was up from +2.7% the previous week, on an average holding period of 22 calendar days the prior week.

To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Here’s Why Lower Treasury Supply Ahead is Bullish or Super Bullish

Treasury supply is scheduled to moderate over the next 3 months but there will still be moments of pressure on the markets. How the new government treats the debt ceiling reimposition on January 2 is a wild card. If it treats the debt ceiling as inviolable, then it will pay down T-bills for a few months until it runs out of cash. Those paydowns would be bullish. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

3-2-1 Liftoff

The election lit the fuse for the market to return to the correct 6 month cycle path after signs of a premature top. We weren’t fooled. We had rightfully questioned those signs and had seen that short term cycle upturns were due. Now it looks like they’re headed a few percent higher. Here’s exactly how much and when to expect it. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Don’t Be Misled By October Tax Collections Collapse

Federal withholding tax collections stalled in October. The jobs report mirrored the tax collections for a change. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

According to economists, external factors were to blame for the slowdown. For once, I won’t quibble. These included the 2 hurricanes that pounded Florida and the Southeast, and the Boeing strike. That strike will continue to impact year to year comps for as long as it lasts. Hopefully, there will be no more hurricanes. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

10/4/24 If revenue continues this red-hot growth, it’s even possible that the November TBAC forecast will show at least a small reduction in expected Treasury supply. That’s something to keep in mind with the 10-year Treasury Yield breaking its 6-month downtrend today. This is a shift toward greater bearishness that I think is reasonable, but that could change come early November if the Treasury shocks the market with a supply reduction. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

That outlook came to pass, with a small reduction in expected supply for the next 3 months. I will consider that in greater depth along with a detailed supply schedule estimate in a report to follow in a few days. The biggest wildcard, however, is the re-imposition of the debt ceiling on January 2. If past debt ceiling episodes are any guide, the Treasury xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx. Those paydowns are normally a xxxxxxxxxxx influence. That would start in January. More on that in the next report. Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!