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Navigating Market Risks: Insights from Primary Dealer Positions – January 2025

Lee Adler

Dive into the latest analysis of primary dealer positions and their implications for Treasury and equity markets in 2025. This exclusive report uncovers critical trends in dealer financing, leverage, and hedging strategies, with a focus on key metrics like repo financing volatility and the debt ceiling’s impact on market liquidity. Discover why systemic leverage is growing and how this might influence the timing of the next bear market.

Highlights include:

  • Rising Dealer Leverage: Learn about the risks from record-high fixed-income inventories and imperfect hedges.
  • Repo Market Instability: Explore how wild fluctuations in repo financing could signal deeper systemic issues.
  • Market Outlook: Understand why technical indicators suggest a potential top formation in stocks and bonds.
  • Debt Ceiling Implications: Find out how the government’s cash management strategies could delay market disruptions.

Want the full breakdown of actionable insights and critical signals to watch? Subscribe now to Liquidity Trader for comprehensive analysis and guidance. 👉 Get Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader Delivered Instantly

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Primary Dealer Stress: Big Risks Delayed, Not Denied, in the Treasury and Equity Markets

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Primary Dealer positions and financing indicate elevated risk, but debt ceiling dynamics, and resulting market liquidity conditions should delay the next bear market until later this year. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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S&P 500’s Critical Crossroads: What Lies Ahead for the Markets?

Lee Adler

Are the markets on the brink of a major shift? The current analysis suggests the S&P 500 is hovering around a pivotal support level, and the implications could be a major shock for investors. Will short selling become a viable strategy for portfolio protection and profit?

Key highlights include:

  • S&P 500 Alert: Will it hold the 5800 support area or plunge toward the next target? A potential breakout above xxxx could flip the script entirely.
  • Cycle Analysis: Bearish phases dominate the landscape. Could a rally challenge that, or would it be a setup for a deeper decline?

Our full report dives deep into these market-moving dynamics, using advanced cycle and technical analysis to map out the most likely paths, with specific triggers to alert you.

Curious to learn more? Unlock the complete report to gain actionable insights and prepare for what’s next. Subscribe here to read the full analysis.

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Critical Market Turning Point: What Will S&P 500 Break Below 5800 Mean

Lee Adler

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

As the market nears completion of a major top pattern, here’s what it means for the intermediate and longer term outlook.

Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

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Top Swing Trade Picks & Market Insights: Gold, Footwear, and Short-Sale Opportunities – Jan 12, 2025

Lee Adler

🔗 Subscribers, download the full report here to access this week’s detailed analysis and chart picks.

Oh, Dem Golden Slippers!

This week’s Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks provides a comprehensive look at market trends, offering actionable chart picks for swing trades. Here’s a preview of what our proprietary technical cycle screens uncovered:

  • Market Sentiment Shifts: A significant tilt towards sell signals for the fourth consecutive week, indicating potential opportunities for savvy traders.
  • Long-Term & Intermediate Trends: Key insights from proprietary cycle screens of all actively traded NYSE and Nasdaq stocks, highlight swing trend changes, exclusively for subscribers.
  • Performance Updates: December closed with an average gain of 3.7% over a 29-day holding period, reinforcing the value of disciplined, data-driven strategies.

Stay Ahead of the Market: Our proprietary algorithm continues to evolve, integrating adjustments aimed at enhancing entry and exit timing and reducing noise in trade signals. Subscribers gain exclusive access to expertly curated charts and performance tracking to refine their trading strategies.

🚀 Take your trading to the next level! Subscribe to our Technical Trader service designed for chart traders, and those looking for early warning on fundamentals based opportunities and dangers. Gain access to weekly chart picks, detailed performance tracking, and exclusive insights.

🔗 Visit LiquidityTrader.com and join an elite community of traders maximizing their edge in the market.

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Top Swing Trade Picks & Market Insights: Gold, Footwear, and Short-Sale Opportunities – Jan 12, 2025

Lee Adler

🔗 Subscribers, download the full report here to access this week’s detailed analysis and chart picks.

Oh, Dem Golden Slippers!

This week’s Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks provides a comprehensive look at market trends, offering actionable chart picks for swing trades. Here’s a preview of what our proprietary technical cycle screens uncovered:

  • Market Sentiment Shifts: A significant tilt towards sell signals for the fourth consecutive week, indicating potential opportunities for savvy traders.
  • Long-Term & Intermediate Trends: Key insights from proprietary cycle screens of all actively traded NYSE and Nasdaq stocks, highlight swing trend changes, exclusively for subscribers.
  • Performance Updates: December closed with an average gain of 3.7% over a 29-day holding period, reinforcing the value of disciplined, data-driven strategies.

Stay Ahead of the Market: Our proprietary algorithm continues to evolve, integrating adjustments aimed at enhancing entry and exit timing and reducing noise in trade signals. Subscribers gain exclusive access to expertly curated charts and performance tracking to refine their trading strategies.

🚀 Take your trading to the next level! Subscribe to our Technical Trader service designed for chart traders, and those looking for early warning on fundamentals based opportunities and dangers. Gain access to weekly chart picks, detailed performance tracking, and exclusive insights.

🔗 Visit LiquidityTrader.com and join an elite community of traders maximizing their edge in the market.

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Macro Liquidity Trends: Insights on Repo, Treasury Actions, and Market Dynamics

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Discover how macro liquidity trends are shaping the financial markets in 2025. From surging bank deposits to the implications of the Federal Reserve’s QT measures, this report uncovers the forces driving stock and bond markets today. Explore the pivotal role of repo lending, Treasury actions, and money market fund balances in sustaining market momentum—or signaling potential shifts ahead. 

 

🔗 Ready to stay ahead of the curve? Access exclusive insights and actionable strategies by joining Liquidity Trader.  Sign up now for expert analysis delivered instantly.

📈 Subscribe Today and start making informed decisions in an ever-changing market.

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Gold’s New Year Momentum: Is a Breakout on the Horizon

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Gold’s recent rally above $2700 has sparked excitement among traders and investors. Could this signal a major shift in long-term trends? Our latest report explores critical resistance levels, potential cycle turn signals, and the implications for mining stocks. With key support levels and momentum indicators in play, January might set the stage for significant moves in gold prices. 📩 Nonsubscribers can click here to access the full report.

Get insider insights into gold’s cycles and what they mean for the market. Access the full analysis and stay ahead of the curve by subscribing now at LiquidityTrader.com.

Stay informed. Stay profitable.

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Withholding Taxes Surge – Could This Signal a Market Breakout?

Lee Adler

Federal tax collection data shows surprising strength – but what does this mean for markets in 2025?

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

December’s spike in federal withholding tax collections reflects broader economic trends that may influence both stock and bond markets. While the numbers indicate resilience, questions remain about how sustainable this growth is and what role the debt ceiling will play in shaping future outcomes. 🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

🔹 By the Numbers:

  • Withheld taxes jumped 13.8% year-over-year by the end of December.
  • Even adjusted for employee compensation inflation, growth remained impressive at 8.8%.
  • Corporate tax collections showed variability – but is this a sign of trouble or just noise?

📈 Charts Show:
Tax collection patterns reveal intriguing cyclical movements. Some trends suggest sustained strength, while others hint at potential shifts ahead.

  • Revenue Growth Cycles – See how recent patterns stack up against historical averages.
  • Short-Term Pullbacks – Are these normal pauses or early warning signs of market retracement?
    🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

💼 What You Should Know:
These tax trends could play a crucial role in shaping market conditions over the coming months. Understanding the underlying drivers could offer key insights – but timing and context are essential.

👉 Curious About What’s Next?
Our premium report dives into the details behind these trends, providing the context and analysis you need to stay informed.

🔗 Unlock Full Access – Subscribe Now for in-depth breakdowns and exclusive insights that can help shape your trading strategy.

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Federal Tax Collections Support La La Land Outlook

Lee Adler

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Federal withholding tax collections were strong in December. Ongoing strong revenue growth could reduce Treasury supply to give the markets xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non-subscribers, click here for the rest of the story.

The debt ceiling is the wild card. As long as it remains in place pending a deal between Congress and the Trump administration, Treasury supply will be reduced. Normally the supply reduction is achieved via T-bill paydowns, with that cash going back to the original holders of the bills, including major investors, dealers, and banks. Strong revenue growth could mean months of T-bill paydowns lasting through May and June from the annual March- April tax bulge.

The bottom line from the tax revenue perspective is that it will continue to xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx market trends, potentially in both stocks and bonds for the duration xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in place. Once xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx, then the Treasury supply problem will return with a vengeance. Until then, the markets remain in La La Land, where all appears well.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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