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Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

Category: 1 Macroliquidity™

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 3-5 in depth reports each month. Click here for subscription information. 

Macroliquidity™ – Wall Street and the Plumber’s Crack

Lee Adler

The US Treasury prints money via the intercession of the Lord, whose name is Repo. That mechanism is on the cusp of breaking. Repo growth has stalled and is testing a critical uptrend line. Hedge funds are again unwinding basis trades. Dealers are forced to absorb massive supply with institutional buyers constrained to a fraction of issuance. The ever-rising sea of money needed to keep the Treasury market and stocks afloat on rising levels, has stopped rising. Crash risk is elevated and proximate.

This report shows why, how long we have, and what to look for in the data.

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Crash Risk Was Proximate. Now It’s Here

Lee Adler

The US Treasury prints money via the intercession of the Lord, whose name is Repo. That mechanism is on the cusp of breaking. Repo growth has stalled and is testing a critical uptrend line. Hedge funds are again unwinding basis trades. Dealers are forced to absorb massive supply with institutional buyers constrained to a fraction of issuance. The ever-rising sea of money needed to keep the Treasury market and stocks afloat on rising levels, has stopped rising. Crash risk is elevated and proximate.

This report shows why, how long we have, and what to look for in the data.

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Ever Growing US Federal Budget Deficit Leads to Never-Ending, Crushing Treasury Supply

Lee Adler

The federal budget deficit is running far ahead of the CBO’s $1.7 trillion fiscal 2026 forecast, driven by collapsing corporate tax receipts, court-ordered tariff refunds, and a surge in outlays that official war cost figures cannot explain. Treasury supply is already at record levels and the market’s capacity to absorb what’s coming will be severely tested. So will Fed Chairman Warsh’s stated goal of reducing the Fed’s market footprint.  This report has the details, and implications for professional investors.

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The Liquidity Pump is Stalling: Crash Risk is Now Proximate

Lee Adler

The US Treasury prints money via the intercession of the Lord, whose name is Repo. That mechanism is on the cusp of breaking. Repo growth has stalled and is testing a critical uptrend line. Hedge funds are again unwinding basis trades. Dealers are forced to absorb massive supply with institutional buyers constrained to a fraction of issuance. The ever-rising sea of money needed to keep the Treasury market and stocks afloat on rising levels, has stopped rising. Crash risk is elevated and proximate.

This report shows why, how long we have, and what to look for in the data.

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Monthly Treasury Supply Issuance Schedule Explodes

Lee Adler

Sell in May and go away is coming early this year.

Supply Tsunami, Arriving Early War spending blew a $142 billion hole in the usual April budget surplus. T-bill paydowns ended weeks before they normally do. The market must now absorb supply that dwarfs anything seen in comparable prior periods. Are you ready? This report replaces what the TBAC formerly published for us. It shows the bi monthly supply schedule of net coupon issuance and an estimate of the gargantuan T-bill supply that lies ahead. 

The unprecedented level of supply will lead to an unprecedented outcome. 

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Macroliquidity™ – Is the “Invisible Monster” About to Implode? The Systemic Warning of the First Order

Lee Adler

The US Treasury is effectively acting as a massive money printer, but the transmission belt connecting debt issuance to stock market gains is beginning to slip. While seasonal tax revenue provides a temporary liquidity “firehose,” structural regime changes in the Treasury and repo markets suggest a long-term bear market is looming, once seasonal Treasury bill paydowns generated by the March-April tax windfall, subside in late May.

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