Category: 1 Macroliquidity™

September’s Treasury data shows headline revenue strength masking a deeper slowdown. Withholding taxes remain in their normal cyclical range, but real growth is flat once wage inflation is factored in. Tariffs are propping up receipts even as they squeeze corporate profits and the deficit widens. Repo financing and basis trades continue to feed the rally. Consider that the bull market is supported by artificial financial engineering, not fundamental economic growth, or even conventional central bank money printing.  

This report shows you the real data, and shows why the consensus tends to be wrong, and suggests the best investment strategy for dealing with the narrative versus the hidden facts.  

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Macro Liquidity Indicators and extreme leverage continue to suggest that the stock market is in a topping phase. 

Primary dealers are propping up record Treasury issuance with no cash cushion left. Every new purchase is repo-financed. Hedge funds are pressing shorts. Net exposures look balanced, but leverage is surging toward the danger zone. Stability here is an illusion — and when it cracks, it will happen fast.

The Treasury’s funding needs, combined with the end of the Fed’s RRP market support fund, stagnant repo activity, and extreme margin leverage, create a setup that looks like a late-stage bull market. The markets are holding for now, but the pillars are stretched, and the risk of a sharp reversal is rising.

The wall was at the top of the liquidity cliff. He dared the market to jump. Today it did. When the market is ready, a catalyst appears. The tariffs, and a weak jobs report lit the match.

Will it have a great fall, or levitate once more?