Lee AdlerTo fade, or not to fade, that is the question
Monday’s pre market rally has set up a critical turning point for the intermediate term market outlook. How the market closes today should point the way whether to hold long, or bail out.
Resistance is futile, or is it?
I have reversed the usual posting order this week, posting the lengthy and detailed Macroliquidity™ report on Monday instead of later in the week as…
The market is holding just under resistance, with the S&P 500 stalling at a multiple trend convergence zone and support suggested just below. Longer-cycle indicators show signs of a top, while the 6-month cycle remains uncertain. Short-term cycles are in a down phase, though a 4-week bounce is expected to begin from a low due xxxx xxxx xxxx. The Dow, VIX, and cycle screening data all have cautionary setups, although the market’s long-term uptrend channel remains intact.
The market is holding just under resistance, with the S&P 500 stalling at a multiple trend convergence zone and support suggested just below. Longer-cycle indicators show signs of a top, while the 6-month cycle remains uncertain. Short-term cycles are in a down phase, though a 4-week bounce is expected to begin from a low due xxxx xxxx xxxx. The Dow, VIX, and cycle screening data all have cautionary setups, although the market’s long-term uptrend channel remains intact.
The market is holding just under resistance, with the S&P 500 stalling at a multiple trend convergence zone and support suggested just below. Longer-cycle indicators show signs of a top, while the 6-month cycle remains uncertain. Short-term cycles are in a down phase, though a 4-week bounce is expected to begin from a low due xxxx xxxx xxxx. The Dow, VIX, and cycle screening data all have cautionary setups, although the market’s long-term uptrend channel remains intact.
The rally slowed last week after the market punched through major resistance to make new highs. The structure of the rally is intact, despite the slowing, but under the surface there are signs from the cycle screens that the advance is deteriorating. Meanwhile cycle projections still point higher across the board. They are consummations devoutly to be wished by some, and dreaded by others. For us, they are maximum potential indications. Indicator signals, and breaks of the key support or resistance will be the signs to tell us whether to stay in, bail out, or go short.
Last week’s geopolitically driven breakout confirmed the intermediate-term uptrend, creating a meltup channel in the S&P 500. Cycle projections have moved higher across the board. The short-term technical setup favors further gains. The longer-term trend remains bullish until major support levels shown in the report are broken.
Friday’s rally kept the S&P 500 in a rangebound pattern now three months old, with cycle work pointing toward xxxxxx formation stretching into September-October even as a longer-term path to xxxx stays on the table if resistance gives way.
The S&P 500’s triangle breakout failed immediately last week, and cycle, momentum, and breadth indicators are lining up around a synchronized outcome. This week’s action around key support levels should clarify what that outcome is likely to be. This report describes the criteria to watch, and what to expect if they are triggered.
The S&P 500’s triangle breakout failed immediately last week, and cycle, momentum, and breadth indicators are lining up around a synchronized outcome. This week’s action around key support levels should clarify what that outcome is likely to be. This report describes the criteria to watch, and what to expect if they are triggered.
The S&P 500 broke out of its multi-week triangle pattern, but there’s reason to be cautious and treat this as an opportunity to reduce risk. Those reasons are explained and illustrated in the report. The Dow remains stronger, though that strength is concentrated in a handful of heavily weighted names. Most cycles are still nominally pointed higher, but signals in the most important intermediate cycle are troubling, and indicators across several timeframes are sitting inconclusively near neutral. The question is which way they are more likely to break in both the short and intermediate term.
This report explains the setups, and points out the levels where you should be prepared to act.