Lee AdlerThe pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in.
Friday’s selloff ended the SPX meltup channel and triggered sell signals across timeframes from 4-week through 6-month. This week is the decision point: further downside would invalidate longer-cycle upside projections and raise crash potential; a stabilization would at least delay the next decline. A weak rebound would suggest a deeper decline ahead. Here are the details, and the signs to look out for.
The S&P meltup holds within all uptrend channels with the path of least resistance still up. Longer cycle projections have pulled back and cyclical breadth momentum is weakening. The advance is aging but there’s no sign of top formation other than in momentum, and that alone is insufficient to signal top formation.
The S&P meltup remains solidly within its uptrend channels with the path of least resistance still pointing higher. But the 13-week cycle is in a down phase, manifesting only as a slowing in momentum, due to bottom around xxxxxx. 6-month cycle new signals have flipped to the sell side for an early warning of an approaching high. The question is when, and at what level.
The two remaining picks on the list have an average gain of 47.1% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. They remain a hold, without stops, at least until the next review next week. I am still adding no new picks.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
The two remaining picks on the list have an average gain of 47.1% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. They remain a hold, without stops, at least until the next review next week. I am still adding no new picks.
April’s performance was still negative on closed trades but a significant improvement from March including two big winners that remain open. The two picks remaining on the list have an average 39% gain. The combined result is an average 4.8% gain on an average 29 day holding period, on all picks closed in April and those currently remaining open.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
April has done markedly better than the all-time worst performance of March, but lagged the market. I continue to doubt the efficacy of the model under the current market regime. I again refrain from adding new picks, given the market’s volatility and repeated gaps.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.