Lee AdlerApril’s performance was still negative on closed trades but a significant improvement from March including two big winners that remain open. The two picks remaining on the list have an average 39% gain. The combined result is an average 4.8% gain on an average 29 day holding period, on all picks closed in April and those currently remaining open.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
April has done markedly better than the all-time worst performance of March, but lagged the market. I continue to doubt the efficacy of the model under the current market regime. I again refrain from adding new picks, given the market’s volatility and repeated gaps.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
April has done markedly better than the all-time worst performance of March, but lagged the market. I continue to doubt the efficacy of the model under the current market regime. I again refrain from adding new picks, given the market’s volatility and repeated gaps.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
I have been lamenting in recent weeks that market interventions by the POTUS render our cycle-based swing trade picking screens ineffective, if not useless, and I have been thinking out discontinuing them. But April has gotten off to a booming start, reversing much of the March losses.
Don’t be fooled. This is the nature of randomness.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
The market broke its downtrend last week but established a new intermediate downtrend channel, with cycle alignments suggesting an intermediate low forming here. However, failure to mount a significant rally from current levels or a breakdown of key support could still trigger a crash.
Current results are terrible, in fact the worst month since beginning this exercise 9 years ago, and especially since tweaking the algorithms in November 2024.
The list currently has an average loss of -4.3% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. This is an improvement over last week’s 7.2% loss thanks to strong performance of open picks, which have an average gain of 4.6% over 20 calendar days. But it comes after weeks of disastrous model output, and my selections. I question whether the model can provide reliable output, in a market that has more government interventions than possibly ever.
The S&P 500 remains confined within a narrow downtrend channel, with indicators signaling major trend weakness. While a news-driven rally is under way this morning, if the index fails to sustain gains and if key support levels fail to hold this week, this would be a potential crash setup.