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I have been lamenting in recent weeks that market interventions by the POTUS render our cycle-based swing trade picking screens ineffective, if not useless, and I have been thinking out discontinuing them. But April has gotten off to a booming start, reversing much of the March losses.
Don’t be fooled. This is the nature of randomness. The coin flips tend toward 50/50. Last week, chance was on our side. In March it went against us. This week’s gains are NOT evidence that the model still works. It does not. Until the market is no longer subject to presidential intervention and manipulation, the model can’t be trusted.
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