Traders overreact to the news that investors must ignore.
Friday’s rally kept the S&P 500 in a rangebound pattern now three months old, with cycle work pointing toward xxxxxx formation stretching into September-October even as a longer-term path to xxxx stays on the table if resistance gives way.
Yet again, Trump changed his mind over the weekend, triggering a gap up in the S&P futures overnight, which is mostly holding this morning.
These flip-flops are meaningless to the intermediate and long term trend. Though they matter a lot to traders, they are not ultimately determinative in the big picture. That’s the core premise behind cycle work going back to Hurst’s Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing (1970), which kickstarted my analytical career and development of the theory which I added over the ensuing 5 decades.
Short term noise causes outsized distortion that may exaggerate or counter normal cyclicality. Even Hurst calculated that cycles only accounted for 22% of price motion. The rest, he said, was due to fundamental trends, with short term movements generated by news, which I call news-noise.
As my market worldview evolved, “fundamental trend” translated to Macroliquidity™, particularly over the past 20 years. The present liquidity situation, with the implications of a never ending Treasury supply tsunami that must be funded month after month, holds the key to the intermediate and long term future. It is the driver around which market cycles, and outside influences that cause distortion, will fluctuate.
The short term frustrates, but it’s important to stay focused on the big picture. This report covers the particulars of the triggers to look for and the resulting targets in price and time.
Legacy (pre April, 2026) Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.
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Then click to download Advanced Cycle Analytics August 3, 2026 (Membership Required: Integrated Edge or Macroliquidity™)
This report includes the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, conventional price targets, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
Get the complete Advanced Cycle Analytics analysis with:
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Precise S&P 500 price targets and timing through 2026-2027
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Full-cycle matrix with short, intermediate, and long-term projections
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Cyclical Breadth momentum screening diagnostics of all S&P 500 stocks across all short and intermediate term timeframes
Limited to 40 new subscribers at current pricing. Access the full report and align your positioning with the technical trend and cycle probabilities.