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The VIrus is the Economy

The Virus Is the Economy

Common sense says that as case numbers increase, tax collections would fall and vice versa, REGARDLESS of whether governments imposed lockdowns. So my expectation was that as governors across the country lifted restrictions, case numbers would rise, and tax collections would fall.

Well here we are.

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Beware of the Rub That Will Irritate Markets

We know that total liquidity is still growing. The Fed is still printing and pumping money into the system at an historic rate. That rate is well above the norms of the original QE back in 2009-10, but well below the peak panic levels of March and April. The Fed has been dialing it back from the extreme pumping it reached at the market bottom in March.

Ay, but theres’s a rub, and it’s not barbecue. It’s an irritant. And the markets won’t like it.

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Wild, Woolly, Illiquid

Last week was wild and wooly. The volatility suggests illiquidity, which at this stage is not bullish. It’s consistent with the idea I’ve espoused in Liquidity Trader reports that the Fed not supplying sufficient liquidity to support an uptrend.

But the technical stuff says, “Ay! Not so fast!”

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These Real Time Charts Show US Economy Contracting Again in June

The data is noisy, and week to week the changes may not mean much. But in some weeks, it’s obvious that it’s part of a bigger trend, whether confirming or indicating change. Even if there are just hints, this information can be incredibly useful. It is useful because it tells us exactly what the big picture is, while Wall Street economists are still scratching their asses and trying to figure out what the government statistician manipulated data means. And the first report from that data is still 13 days away.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENIN NOW, before even the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!