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Crash Risk Was Proximate. Now It’s Here

Lee Adler 1 Macroliquidity™ June 9, 2026

The US Treasury prints money via the intercession of the Lord, whose name is Repo. That mechanism is on the cusp of breaking. Repo growth has stalled and is testing a critical uptrend line. Hedge funds are again unwinding basis trades. Dealers are forced to absorb massive supply with institutional buyers constrained to a fraction of issuance. The ever-rising sea of money needed to keep the Treasury market and stocks afloat on rising levels, has stopped rising. Crash risk is elevated and proximate.

This report shows why, how long we have, and what to look for in the data.

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Meltup Channel Broken – Intermediate Term Cycle Signals Turn Conditionally Bearish

Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics June 8, 2026

Friday’s selloff ended the SPX meltup channel and triggered sell signals across timeframes from 4-week through 6-month. This week is the decision point: further downside would invalidate longer-cycle upside projections and raise crash potential; a stabilization would at least delay the next decline. A weak rebound would suggest a deeper decline ahead. Here are the details, and the signs to look out for.

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Gold Hangs In the Balance of Possible Huge Decline

Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader June 5, 2026

Gold continues to hover at its 200 day MA. A break of 4400 should lead to a test, but then it gets potenitally really ugly. …

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Ever Growing US Federal Budget Deficit Leads to Never-Ending, Crushing Treasury Supply

Lee Adler 1 Macroliquidity™ June 3, 2026

The federal budget deficit is running far ahead of the CBO’s $1.7 trillion fiscal 2026 forecast, driven by collapsing corporate tax receipts, court-ordered tariff refunds, and a surge in outlays that official war cost figures cannot explain. Treasury supply is already at record levels and the market’s capacity to absorb what’s coming will be severely tested. So will Fed Chairman Warsh’s stated goal of reducing the Fed’s market footprint. This report has the details, and implications for professional investors.

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Meltup Persists, But Cyclical Breadth Momentum is Negative

Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics May 31, 2026

The S&P meltup holds within all uptrend channels with the path of least resistance still up. Longer cycle projections have pulled back and cyclical breadth momentum is weakening. The advance is aging but there’s no sign of top formation other than in momentum, and that alone is insufficient to signal top formation.

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The Liquidity Pump is Stalling: Crash Risk is Now Proximate

Lee Adler 1 Macroliquidity™ May 28, 2026

The US Treasury prints money via the intercession of the Lord, whose name is Repo. That mechanism is on the cusp of breaking. Repo growth has stalled and is testing a critical uptrend line. Hedge funds are again unwinding basis trades. Dealers are forced to absorb massive supply with institutional buyers constrained to a fraction of issuance. The ever-rising sea of money needed to keep the Treasury market and stocks afloat on rising levels, has stopped rising. Crash risk is elevated and proximate.

This report shows why, how long we have, and what to look for in the data.

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Golden Calf Could Be Expensive

Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader May 27, 2026

Cycles remain in gear to the downside, with a new 13-week cycle projection pointing to xxxx, with a low due from late June to late July.

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Meltup Near an End, But Churn Tilts Higher – Dangers Looming in the Darkness

Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics May 26, 2026

The S&P meltup remains solidly within its uptrend channels with the path of least resistance still pointing higher. But the 13-week cycle is in a down phase, manifesting only as a slowing in momentum, due to bottom around xxxxxx. 6-month cycle new signals have flipped to the sell side for an early warning of an approaching high. The question is when, and at what level.

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The Bill Comes Due: Treasury Supply Shock Meets a Vanishing Buyer Base

Lee Adler 1 Macroliquidity™ May 22, 2026

In this brief update bulletin: The Treasury’s bill issuance just swung $124 billion in a single week versus year-ago. The repo market isn’t keeping pace, and foreign central banks are walking away. The crunch is here.

The unprecedented level of supply will lead to an unprecedented outcome.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks and Results – May 18, 2026

Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics May 18, 2026

The two remaining picks on the list have an average gain of 47.1% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. They remain a hold, without stops, at least until the next review next week. I am still adding no new picks.

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Meltup Intact, But Cracks are Forming

Lee Adler 2 - Advanced Cycle Analytics May 18, 2026

The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.

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Gold’s Trend Position Is Increasingly Tenuous

Lee Adler 3 - Gold Trader May 15, 2026

Cycles are in gear to the downside, except for the 4 week cycle, which has extended beyond its ideal bottom window. The 6-7 week cycle projection of xxxx is an outlier for now, but if projected channel support around xxxx breaks, this could turn into a steep, fast decline to much lower levels. The next support area is around xxxx.

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