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Lee Adler’s

Lee Adler’s

MacroliquidityTM – Two Charts that Should Shake Your Confidence

Lee Adler

This report features two charts that tell a coherent and sobering story. Repo financing that has quietly fueled this rally is plateauing in exactly the pattern that has preceded every major correction of the last few years. At the same time, junk bond spreads are sitting within a hair of their tightest levels in three years, which is precisely the condition that leads to an eventual unwind that is violent instead of orderly.

I have warned for months that the wave of Treasury supply set to hit in July would open a window of extraordinary risk. Below, these two charts, which you won’t see anywhere else, show why the calm on the surface is the least reassuring thing about this market.

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Liquidity Blowoff – The Final Stage

Lee Adler

The Treasury market is facing a dangerous convergence of forces as a massive wave of new supply hits a financial system fueled by a final, parabolic surge in money growth. Other asset classes, particularly stocks, depend on a stable Treasury market foundation. While stock markets have remained buoyant, the underlying mechanics that have driven years of asset price inflation are reaching a stage of extreme, perhaps terminal, excess.

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Breakout or Fakeout: The S&P’s Triangle Breakout Targets

Lee Adler

The S&P 500 broke out of its multi-week triangle pattern, but there’s reason to be cautious and treat this as an opportunity to reduce risk. Those reasons are explained and illustrated in the report. The Dow remains stronger, though that strength is concentrated in a handful of heavily weighted names. Most cycles are still nominally pointed higher, but signals in the most important intermediate cycle are troubling, and indicators across several timeframes are sitting inconclusively near neutral. The question is which way they are more likely to break in both the short and intermediate term.

This report explains the setups, and points out the levels where you should be prepared to act.

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Perfect Equilibrium Market Has a Double Secret Handshake

Lee Adler

The S&P 500 remains pinned in a tightening triangle pattern, with cycle indicators split between an exhausted 6-month uptrend and fresh strength in the underlying cycle screens, leaving this week’s close as the to be tie-breaker for the next directional move. Here’s what the data shows about the likely outcome. Is it true that flat is, as flat does, or are there hidden signs and portents?

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Revenue Rot Meets Spending Surge: Treasury Supply Goes Gargantuan

Lee Adler

The federal budget deficit is running far ahead of the CBO’s $1.7 trillion fiscal 2026 forecast, driven by collapsing corporate tax receipts, court-ordered tariff refunds, and a surge in outlays that official war cost figures cannot explain. Treasury supply is already at record levels and the market’s capacity to absorb what’s coming will be severely tested. So will Fed Chairman Warsh’s stated goal of reducing the Fed’s market footprint.  This report has the details, and implications for professional investors.

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Triangle Pattern Signals Perfect Equilibrium Price, Market Can Now Shut Down

Lee Adler

The S&P 500 remains pinned in a tightening triangle pattern, with cycle indicators split between an exhausted 6-month uptrend and fresh strength in the underlying cycle screens, leaving this week’s close as the to be tie-breaker for the next directional move. Here’s what the data shows about the likely outcome. Is it true that flat is, as flat does, or are there hidden signs and portents?

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Triangle of Indecision: No Tell Yet, Cycle Projections Map Slight Upside

Lee Adler

The pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in.

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