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Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook

This doesn’t look good.

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Our entry into last week’s 3 mining picks did not go well. They’re all down a little and are threatening to break support. Consequently, I’ve added stops just below those support levels.

If they hold above that, there’s still a good chance of a rally, but if they break, we’ll take our lumps and come back to fight another day. Once or twice a year we see playable profitable rallies, but we never know where and when they’ll emerge. It requires dipping toes in the water whenever the potential appears. Sometimes it plays out and sometimes it doesn’t in this most frustrating of market sectors.

For the week, there were 22 charts with multiple buy signals. There are 13 with multiple sell signals.  But, on Tuesday alone, there were just 2 buys, and 18 sells. It’s not a picture that xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

After reviewing the 22 charts with multiple buys, virtually all performed poorly on Tuesday, and none looked any more promising than the 3 picks already on the list. And like the 3 existing picks, all were in position for possible breakdowns. So there are no new picks this week. Wait till next week. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Stocks Are Even More “Oversold” Versus Liquidity

The thing is, there’s no such thing as “oversold” in a bear market. OK, maybe there is, but it’s at a much lower parameter than that which applied during the 13 year bubble.

Therefore we should not expect the market to turn up from extremes similar to those of the past 12 years. And we should not expect the rebounds to be sustained. They’ll correct the extreme, and then the downtrend to new lows will resume. So, what I wrote previously, recapped below, still applies. Stock prices still look oversold, even more so than in late May when I last updated the CLI.

But the bottom line remains the same. Here’s what it is. Here’s why. And here’s what you might consider doing about it if you want to profit from what lies ahead.

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Publication Schedule

I will be posting a Liquidity Trader Money Trends update later today. I’ll post the Gold Trader update on Wednesday again this week, and then also next week due to the holiday.

I have a busy summer ahead as I get ready to close on my apartment purchase here in Nice in two weeks,  followed by several weeks of renovation. I’ve recently I’ll stick as close as possible to the normal publication schedules but there will be occasional deviations.

Thanks for your patience and support and enjoy your summer too!

Lee

Bulls Have Hope This Week, Bears Wary of Pump

If you believe in signs, miracles, portents, and quantum mechanics, then stock charts and trading screens are for you! Allow me to explain.

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In our search for stocks to add to our swing trade chart picks list, the final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 92 charts with multiple buy signals, and only 5 with more than one sell signal. 3 of the 5 were gold ETFs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 81 buy signals and 0 sell signals. That’s right. Zero sells. So from a bearish perspective there’s nothing to hang our hats on. After last week’s pump, there’s no hope for dump. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As I prepared to eyeball the charts on the final lists of buys and sells, I was thinking that it’s too late to buy, but I tried to keep an open mind. As I went through the charts, I kept seeing the same thing. They all looked as though they had maybe another day or two of upside before hitting a wall of resistance. So I said, “No thanks.”

But then I saw one that I thought, “Here’s one I can hold and hope.” The symbol was xxxx. It was a sign. I put it on the list. Scientific method, right? Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/20/22 Last week, the list had an average gain of 16.4% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 11.2% per week.

The record gain tells us to expect some giveback this week. I have adjusted trailing stops to protect profits. At the same time, I wanted to allow some wiggle room for dead cat bounces because these charts look destined for a lower low within a couple of weeks, if not immediately.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 14.9% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 8.6% per week. That includes picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There was the expected giveback from the week before, but in the end, still a near record performance. That was great, especially considering that everything was short. But because there were signs that the market was sold out the week before, I had tightened the trailing stops. As a result, all 5 of the older picks got stopped out with profits. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The one new pick, xxxx, was a short. Call it luck, or a good job by the screens and my eyes, but it bucked the rally and sold off hard, giving the list a nice boost. As usual, I put it on the list without a stop, but I’m adding one this week to protect the profit, but still allow room for additional price decline. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 10% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 3.8% per week. That’s not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.25%, but trending upward. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 1 open pick and one new pick. The open pick is a short with the symbol xxxx. The new pick is a buy with the symbol xxxx. Hey. I gotta do what I gotta do. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’ve added a stop to xxxx, to protect the profit in case they do, but also allow room for more downside if they don’t. I have added xxxx without a stop in the first week, as usual, because you gotta hold on to xxxx, at least on the first week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’m sorry. I had no choice about that. Because I already had xxxx, I considered adding LIFE, but it was premature. Non-subscribers click here for access.

OK, I’m really sorry this time. I won’t do it again. I promise.

All active picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

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Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

The Spike Is Here, So Here’s What to Expect

We got the V bottom and spike rally that I was worried about last week. This rally has started a lot like the last two spikes, gaining 275 points in 4 days. The March rally kept going another 150 points. The May rally was exhausted at that point. I’m leaning toward this one xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx  xxxxxx x  x x. I would not xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx clear signs that xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.

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As far as whether it’s too late to scalp the upside, I’ll let you know when I run the screens and have looked at the individual charts. Might be a few laggards to ride.

Cycles- This does not look like a new 13 week cycle up phase. The cycle high is ideally due on xxxxxxxxxx. The upside projection of xxxxxxxx was xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s no sign that the 6 month cycle has turned up yet, and its cycle projection has dropped to xxxxxxxxx. Therefore we should still look for a xxxxxxxxxxxxx once this short term up phase xxxxxxxxxxxxx. I would not xxxxxx this rally, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx possible scalp on a stock by stock basis. That depends on the screens digging up any that still have the potential for a pop, or more pop. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – This is headed for the trendline convergence at xxxxxx, where it “should” pivot. If not, then xxxxxx. And if that didn’t hold, then the next target would be around xxxxxxxxxx.

The last spike was good for 348 points from low to exhaustion. The one before that, however, was good for 475 points, with a 1 day pullback about 2/3 of the way up.

This rally has traversed 276 points so far. Based on the last two rallies, and the similar speed of this one, it suggests that this one xxxxxxxxxxxxo, and maybe xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – It’s not yet clear whether longer cycles have turned. The market still needs to end a week above the xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and above xxxxxxxxxxxxxx resistance. The latter is at xxxx. Clearing that would give the market a good chance of making it back to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The market is back above a long term support trend convergence at 3720. Breaking that at the end of June would suggest that the bear market is about to get much worse. Staying above it would mean that they’ll muddle along in a range for a while longer.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate rebounded sharply from a deep extreme without the usual positive divergence that normally precedes an extended rally. It’s more supportive of the idea of a dead cat on a skewer.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Is There Life on Mars, or in the Precious Metals?

Gold remains in a state cycle juxtaposition. Cycles facing opposite directions with none having thrust result in trading ranges. We were expecting this, but it’s still surprising. While a breakdown below xxxx would imply a target in the mid xxxx range there’s no sign that that outcome is imminent. But there’s a xxxxx that the longer swing cycles could xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx in the July-August window.  X xxxxx breakout xxxxx xxxx would be needed to xxxx the likelihood of that happening.

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Last week’s performance among the mining stocks was again underwhelming but it did produce a couple of charts of interest that will be added to the chart pick list as of Wednesday’s opening price. They are xxx, xxx, and xxx. Charts below (in the report).

For the week, there were only 7 charts with multiple buy signals including one in the past 2 trading days. There are 15 with multiple sells including one in the past two trading days. So overall that doesn’t inspire confidence that the sector is ready to move. But, on Tuesday alone, as the whole market rallied, the precious metals sector saw 29 buy signals and only one sell signal. If there are more buy signals this week, the pick list should grow.

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We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Nothing has changed since I last updated this Fed QT report three weeks ago. I have updated all the charts and details in the body of the report.

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Short term reaction rallies, and dead cat bounces notwithstanding, the intermediate outlook, and longer term, remain bearish, pending xxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That will follow the coming crash, not precede it. Anyone holding out for that xxxxxx xxxxxxxx is likely to get crushed, battered, steamrolled, destroyed, decimated, and cooked. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Holding and hoping is not a strategy. When Wall Street tells you not to panic, they may as well be deer frozen in the headlights of an oncoming train. Smart people don’t panic. They just calmly get the hell out of the way. Cash, despite it being depreciated by inflation, still has utility. When opportunity presents itself, you’re going to need it to take advantage.

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This report will show you in charts and clear discussion, how we got here, where we are, exactly where the markets are headed, and what you can do about it to protect your assets, and even grow your capital in the dangerous, even deadly, months ahead. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Swing Trade Screens – Tank Gawt We’re Not a Long-Only Entity, Poor Bastids

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in just 4 charts with multiple buy signals, and only 20 with more than one sell signal. Considering that we start with a universe of over 10,000 issues, these numbers are minuscule. It tells us that the market is extended on the downside and due for a respite from the selling.

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But there’s no sign of it yet, other than the market seeming to be virtually sold out. There are just too few stocks that have made the turn to power a meaningful rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were 23 buy signals and 4 sell signals. These are, again, small numbers. The tilt to the buy side suggests that xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So as I prepared to eyeball the charts on the final lists of buys and sells, I was thinking, “Oh boy, those 4 buys must be something special.” I was chomping at the bit to get some longs on the list in preparation for a dead cat bounce, or more. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I looked at the charts and… meh. One was a well known air package delivery service that looked more like a short setup than a long. One was a biotech, which I avoid like the plague. One was a bakery that moves about a point a year. And one was a minor TV network and content provider. That chart looked good for maybe a 5% move. Not worth the risk here. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So that meant no buys. Then I looked at the 20 final sells. A couple of gold miners showed up, which was disheartening. I won’t short gold miners. I did find one chart that was interesting enough to add as a short. It was xxxx, with a limit price. As with last week’s short side picks, entry will be conditioned on trading at the limit price at some point during the week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I had 5 conditional short sale picks with sell limit entry prices. Two of them, xxx and xxx got hit, and I added those as shown on the table below. The other 3 never traded near their limit prices. Too bad. They would have been KA CHING, had I just done the usual market price at open. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Is there a lesson in that? Uh… No. If you’re looking for a curveball, and get a fastball instead, eh, that’s baseball. Credit to the pitcher. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 16.4% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. That worked out to an average gain of 11.2% per week. Normally that includes picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. Last week, there were no closeouts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

The record gain tells us to expect some giveback this week. I have adjusted trailing stops to protect profits. At the same time, I wanted to allow some wiggle room for dead cat bounces because these charts look destined for a lower low within a couple of weeks, if not immediately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This week we start with 5 picks plus the 1 conditional pick. The 5 existing picks are, once again, all short. The 1 new pick is also a short, so the list is still 100% short. I would expect that to change imminently, but I’ll follow the signals and evaluate the charts without bias, to the extent possible. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new pick has a limit entry price, it does not have a stop. I’ll add one next week if this pick is opened, based on hitting its limit price. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All active picks are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Watch Out For a V Bottom

But bear market V bottoms end with different results than bull market V bottoms. The warning applies for a reason other than the one we are accustomed to.

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Cycles- Short term cycles are due to bottom now. The 4 week cycle projection of xxxx is done. The projection on cycles of 6-8 weeks points to xxxx. So the most obvious scenario would call for a xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx now, followed quickly by xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Longer cycles are all pointed down, with lows xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx, with a 6 month cycle projection currently pointing to xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The market would need to end this week above xxxx to get anything going on the upside. Conversely, an early week daily close below xxxx would immediately target xxxx, and if that did not hold, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market broke critical support at 3700 last week. Trend support is around xxxx this week. If that breaks, the next target area would be around xxxx, then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The S&P 500 fell below a long term support trend convergence at xxxx. The next
support level is around xxxx, and below that, xxxx. Long term momentum has edged to a 15 month
low, but has not broken its uptrend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate extended its crash to reach its lowest point since February 2020, during the Covid Crash. It’s the first time it has been below -2000 since then. This suggests that the market is within xxx to xxx months of a bear market low, but xxx xxx xxx xxxxx xxx. Even 1 month is enough time for massive damage. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees

Gold is now working on a test of the low. Obviously, it needs to hold, otherwise, this could get a lot worse over the next few months. For example, a breakdown below xxxx would imply a target in the mid xxxx range.

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The screens for short term swing trades were again terrible over the past week. Unlike the above screens, which evaluate current cycle status, these screens look only for new signals indicating a change of short term trend. Looking back over the past week, there were only 3 charts that made the cut on the buy side. Conversely, there were 15 Sells. That’s not a good ratio, although not as bad as the previous week when the score was 3 buys to 35 on the sell side.

The last step in the process is to eyeball the charts on the buy side. One of the 3 was a penny stock. I’m not interested. One of the other two (xxx) was a falling knife setup at support. Sorry, no interest. The other (xxxx) might be a base. Might not. It isn’t a terrible setup, but wasn’t solid enough to entice me in this environment.

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