Menu Close

Author: Lee Adler

Bears Last Custard Stand

The major cycle technical bear case may already be dead. This week is probably the last chance for bears to reassert themselves and regain the upper hand. Otherwise, indications will tilt toward a 3-4 year cycle low is behind us.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

That doesn’t mean that a major secular upleg is ahead. I would expect something along the lines of a late 1960s, early 70s cycle bull move that merely retests the 2021 high. But this is conjecture. December is the month where one side or the other must prove itself. As of now, bulls have the edge, but if the month ends with the S&P 500 below xxxx, bears get the ball again. Non subscribers click here to access.

In the short run, my trading posture would be to xxxx xxxx dips and xxxx xxxxx rips, but not to xxxx them yet. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles- The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between now and xxxxxxx xx. Cycle projections have now risen to xxxx-xxxx. If they clear resistance in the xxxx-xxxx zone, I would take that projection as a given. If they don’t, then we watch day to day for signs of whether it’s a top or consolidation. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – Bears need the SPX to end the week below xxxx to have a shot at reversing the rally. Ultimately, a breakdown below xxxx would be required to get anything going on the downside. If resistance in the xxxx-xxxx is cleared, the next target area would be around xxxx, and if that’s broken then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The surge in 10-12 month cycle momentum suggests that the market will make a run at xx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That in turn could trigger a cascade of longer term buy signals on 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators. This week seems like the bears’ last chance to make a stop and regain the upper hand. Non subscribers click here to access.

Updated long term cycle projections suggest that the bottom is behind us. There’s still time for reversion to something more consistent with a bear market if the rally reverses and ends December weaker than xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx . That’s a big if. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The rally needs to end December below xxxx, or the bear case will be in trouble, at least in the short run. Clearing that level would imply a target of the trendline at xxxx or the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Bullish short and intermediate term patterns established in early November have yet to be broken. A couple of down days would be needed this week to break that trend. Likewise, continued strength would be a bullish indication for the longer cycles.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold is Having a Bull Movement

Gold is making orderly progress toward a year end or Q1 2023 target of xxxx-xxxx on the daily chart. Charts of the miners look full of potential as they emerge from massive bases. I have added a few more miner picks to the swing trade list.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund

Last month’s discussion of the US Treasury doing bond buybacks on the heels of a reeling bond market has faded into the background, thanks to a well timed bond market rally. The mere talk of buybacks reignited fixed income animal spirits, if there is such a thing. Now we can get back to the discussion of the one thing that actually matters for sustaining hope induced rallies.

Cash.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

That’s because the rallies so far have been based on hope, rather than fact. All of the talk, all of the speculation, about when the Fed will start easing is just that. Talk. But in the market, ultimately, only money talks. For market prices to rise in the face of ever increasing supply of new securities, there needs to be more money available to fuel the demand to absorb that supply. Otherwise, in the immortal words of Randolph Duke, “Prices will fall.” Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

We focus on the Fed as the all powerful Lord of money. The Fed mostly giveth, but since March, the Fed hath been takingeth awayeth. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But there are other sources of temporary money. Not the least of which are the financial assets, especially US Treasuries, themselves. Once created, they become collateral for credit which can fuel rallies that last much longer than most of us expect. But only for as long as prices are rising. Because once that stops, sellers start tiptoeing to the exits. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Eventually, prices rise to resistance levels where sellers appear, including dealers and others who want to build short positions. Without new capital, whether central bank money, or fiscal largesse, or profits, which are then added to capital, (as opposed to extinguishing debt or spent on consumption), all rallies must fall by the wayside. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Which is where this one should go. Because the sources of quasi permanent money like Fed QE just aren’t there right now. However, there are a couple of potential sources that are so huge, and so liquid, that we need to be cognizant of them. They are the Fed’s RRP slush fund, that so far has remained over $2 trillion. And the US Treasury’s piggy bank, that has been hovering around $600-650 billion, which is where the Treasury wants to hold it for a “rainy day.” Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Such a rainy day might be another debt ceiling impasse, coming to a theater near you next year. Or it might be a bond market meltdown. The last chapter of that long running bear market brought out the talk of the Treasury doing a big series of buybacks of longer term paper, to keep the rise in long term bond yields at bay. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

That talk, and the belief among some investors that bonds had gotten cheap, and that a recession was coming, triggered speculative, leveraged buying of bonds again. So the bond market was off to the races. Amazingly, stocks haven’t melted down under the strain of that bond market buying. But this rally in both stocks and bonds looks pretty much like the last one and the one before that. All of which has led to a nowhere market. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

It reminds me of 1973. Back then, in the early years of the Great Inflation, the market kept hitting lows and rallying, hitting lows, and rallying, and rallying again. It didn’t go down much all year, but it didn’t make any progress in those rallies. Early 1974 was more of the same, until the bottom dropped out that summer. The market just treaded water for over a year before it drowned. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

I’m not saying that this market will do the same thing. Maybe Wall Street is so smart today, and has so many tools, that it will successfully anticipate the Fed’s policy reversal. The front running might then lead to a real bull market when the Fed opens the floodgates. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But think about this. If the markets refuse to go down; if stocks and bonds continue to bounce around, then what incentive does the Fed have to ease policy? If the Fed was so prescient in seeing this inflation coming—not—then what makes the Street think that the Fed will be able to foresee a brewing financial calamity. Like the last time, the Fed saw nothing until it was too late. Like this inflation. The Fed saw nothing until it was too late. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Nope, I’m skeptical. Historically, the Fed has always been slow in recognition, driving in the rear view mirror, reactive, rather than proactive. It never seems to understand the forces it unleashes with policy responses that have grown increasingly insane with madmen like Greenspan, Bernanke, and Powell at the helm. Only Yellen shrank the balance sheet, but Powell reversed her, showering unprecedented largesse on his banker overlords and cronies. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Until he was blindsided by the consumer price inflation that he caused with his monetary outburst. It’s an ugly, sad saga that we have chronicled here for two decades, and that we’ve used as the basis for understanding and forecasting the markets with some degree of success. And which I hope to continue by simply observing and reporting the trends in the data. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

In that regard, in this report, let’s take a look at whether there’s any sign that money managers are about to pull cash out of that $2 trillion RRP fund to buy bonds or stocks, or anything for that matter. And xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx.  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That’s right, stocks and bonds. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

That helps to explain the rallies and holding actions in the two asset classes. And it is a warning to bears that the next major downleg in this bear market, if that’s what this still is, may be many months away, similar to the 1973-74 experience. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

It means stock traders should give a thought to buying the dips AND selling the rips. Both trading from the long side, and short selling, will require good market timing through technical analysis, as the market bounces around in shorter swings than we would like. Flat rangebound trends are likely to remain the rule, not the exception. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

As for whether its ok to start buying and holding for the longer run, xxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxx. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Get the rest of this dope, amply illustrated, with beautiful color charts suitable for framing, including a clear forecast on what to expect and what to do about it, in the complete subscriber version of the report. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts)

For the week ended November 25, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 54 sells. 3 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 43 bullish and 57 bearish signals. That’s the second consecutive week of a bearish tilt in new signals, and a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side two weeks before.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Bear in mind that this is but a fraction of the 1300-1400 issues that normally meet the minimum screening criteria of price of $6+ and average volume over a million per day for the past 4 weeks. Therefore the past two weeks of small numbers of sell signal pluralities did not overcome the bullish thrust of two weeks before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

11/21/22 This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I again reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I again came up empty on the buy side. I was equally unimpressed with the sell signals, but there were two that I liked enough to add to the list for this week. All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with 3 longs and 7 shorts. I added or adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, we saw good performance, but it is tenuous. There were 7 winners and 1 loser. The average gain was 5.4% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

November has been a struggle. On picks closed out this month, the list has shown an average loss of 1.9% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. If there are profits this week, that will even out somewhat. Over the past 12 months, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear

4000 is not only a nice round number, but it coincides with technical levels and indications that will tell us in the next few days whether the rally is finished, or whether the bear market is finished.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

I’ve made clear that I think that all the speculation about easier Fed policy ahead as the basis for a bull market will prove not only fruitless, but counterproductive. However, I will respect the technical verdict of the market. The judge has sent the jury out to deliberate.

Cycles– Short term cycles entered flat down phases last week, as was due. The 13 week cycle is overdue for a high, with the projection now xxxx. The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between xxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx. Cycle projections now point mostly to xxxxxxx, with the upper range of xxxxx on the 10-12 month cycle only possible if the short term pullback that is due is shallow. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – Short term uptrend channels remain intact. The key trendline to watch runs from xxxx to xxxx this week. Bears need to break that line to get anything going on the downside. To begin a more significant reversal, they would need a close below a second trendline that ends the week around xxxx. If that remains intact, then the uptrend remains in force. Non subscribers click here to access.

Friday’s close put the S&P 500 just above a long term downtrend line at xxxx. If it stays above this line this week, it would call the bear market into question. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – 11/14/22 The rally has confirmed a 6 month cycle up phase. There’s a slim chance of a top here if they hold the line at xxxx this week and drive the market lower on the week. Otherwise, there’s running room to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

There are no long term buy signals yet. But that could happen if the rally extends to the xxx area and consolidates there. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – 11/14/22 The upper boundary of the downtrend channel is around xxxx in November. Ending the month above that would suggest a new intermediate uptrend. Closing below that would reconfirm the downtrend. Non subscribers click here to access.

10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. We need to keep an eye on this. It’s an important key as to whether this is still a bear market or not. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – These measures remained in solidly positive territory. However, a negative divergence developed with the market averages. A couple of market down days this week would break the uptrend in this indicator that began over two months ago. However, early week strength would reconfirm the rally, and would also lead to a break in the bear market trend. An extension of the rally this week would also break the longer term bearish trend in the cumulative cycles measure. This is another indicator that we need to watch closely to show whether this is still a bear market, or a new bull market. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK

The pullback over the past week looks like a healthy correction in a 9-12 month cycle up phase.  I added two more picks to our miner swing trades list, bringing the total to four.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Cautiously Bearish

For the week ended November 18, there were 48 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 75 sells. 4 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 44 bullish and 79 bearish signals. That’s a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side the week before. That apparent strength fizzled in mid week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I came up empty on the buy side. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Most of the shorts looked premature. They still appear to have some bouncing to do before they roll over. But I liked 5 of them enough to add to the list. That will give it some balance, adding 5 shorts to the 5 longs still on the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I was cautious despite the huge number of buy signals. I added two longs to the list. They did poorly, and I’m looking to limit the losses by adding tight stops. The charts have deteriorated and I’m not willing to give them much more wiggle room for potential rebounds. I’m also cutting one other loser as of the opening price this morning, and tightening stops on the rest. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Stock Market Is Grinding Through Resistance

The question is whether resistance or upside momentum will win. The answer will come this week. Here are the directional signals.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late

That’s right. Inflation is dead. But it doesn’t matter, because the Fed won’t pull the stake out of its heart until it’s too late. I’ll get to that below (in the subscriber report, non subscribers, click here to read this report) but first, let’s talk about the interest rate bogeyman. It’s a fake issue, a diversionary tactic. Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Interest rates don’t matter in terms of policy effects on the markets. They are merely a meter of monetary tightness. That tightness is Fed policy, and market interest rates, T-bills in particular, continue to post warning signs about that day in and day out. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The Street and its captured handmaiden media mouthpieces keep talking about the Fed raising interest rates. But the Fed has never actually raised rates. It has simply rubber stamped the increases that have already happened in the money markets to the meaningless Fed Funds target rate. And it hasn’t done a very good job of keeping up with market increases. Non subscribers, click here to read this report. 

The evidence shows, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, that the market keeps outrunning the Fed’s rubber stamp. Regardless of all the bullish speculation on when the Fed will pause, or slow down its rate increases, or whatever it is that the Street wants investors to believe, the fact is that monetary conditions are still tightening, and will continue to tighten. And that will keep a lid on the markets. Rallies will continue to make lower highs, to be followed by lower lows. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The best meter of those conditions are short term Treasury bill rates, and those are still rising. This simple measure of the market shows clearly that the demand for short term funding continues to be greater than the supply of ready cash. Last week, both the 13 week bill rate and the 4 week bill rate hit new highs, as the Treasury repeatedly came to market with massive new T-bill offerings. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But that’s only the beginning of this horror story. The rest is in the report, including the evidence that inflation is already dead, and why it doesn’t matter. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Golden Surprise

Gold has broken out of a base that has a conventional measured move target that suggests a bigger move ahead. So do cycle projections. In the mining sector, I’ve added two picks to the swing list.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

 

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

%d bloggers like this: