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Author: Lee Adler

Gold in Them Thar Hills

Gold is in the process of a big base breakout with a new measured move implication that’s even higher than the last one. Miners look even better, and I have added a couple to the swing trade pick list.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Low Conviction

It wasn’t a good week for the list. All but one pick got stopped out, mostly as intended, but the end result was an average gain of 1.4% with an average holding period of 12 calendar days last week. And that win was all due to one big winner.

That left just one pick open, a buy that did not participate in Friday’s rally, but whose chart still appears to have potential. In spite of that, I’ve added a stop just below the low, just in case.

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For picks closed out in December, the average gain was 1.8% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days, that is, half a month. Since January 2022, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. I went off course in October, in particular, and November, and the list got hammered, but December saw a bit of recovery. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have recently tweaked the screening methodology over the past two weeks for the purpose of improving overall performance, but there are no guarantees. This is an ongoing experiment. You should make your own judgments accordingly. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, for the week ended January 6, even with Friday’s strong tape there were just 5 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 28 with second or third sells. However, that includes Thursday’s sell signals. Most of those whipsawed on Friday. This data doesn’t have a strong bias either way. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The only charts that I liked were two picks on the short side, which are noted on the table below (subscriber report). All picks closed out last week, along with the one that wasn’t, are also shown on the table below. After adding the new picks, there will be 1 buy and 2 shorts.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week, along with the six that weren’t, are shown on the table below. After adding the new pick, there will be 1 buy and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

You Think That Was The Bottom? Think Again

They called it a goldilocks jobs report. Strong jobs creation, softening wage and salary inflation. The shorts got crushed. I know. I was one of them. Too early, or just wrong? But guess what. All of the indicators, so far, say that this was a reaction rally in an intermediate term bear market top. It should begin to burn out this week.

Furthermore, if most of the shorts covered in the buying panic on Friday, who will buy on the way down? The only thing Wall Street’s professional bulls are short of is cash. Once this rolls over and starts down, it could be a long wait for buyers to show up in size again.

That said, I will honor the market’s message this week. Here’s what you need to look at to know whether to be long or short.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Withholding Taxes Are Soaring

Federal withholding tax collections soared last month and continued to do so in the first few days of January. I wondered if this was an anomaly, but correlated data supports it. Regardless of what the BLS reports this morning, which is always a crapshoot, there is no doubt that there was a jobs boom in December. Sooner or later that will show up in the jobs data. The Fed won’t like it, and neither will the market. But whether it will be this morning, or in next month’s data that this surprise shows up, I don’t know.

What I do know, and what you should know is the following. These are real, hard facts that you can act on.

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Gold Has Begun a Cyclical Bull Market

Gold is now attacking significant resistance after a big base breakout. 4 Year Cycle indicators have turned bullish. Miners are lagging, but I have on big pick to ride the wave in the sector.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – New Year R&R

The list showed an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days last week. I had tightened stops with the intent of closing out trades. As a result, 16 of the 22 picks did get closed out. Six remain open for this week. I have added or adjusted stops on those, with the intent to close them out of the list if stops are hit.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

For picks closed out in December, the average gain was 1.8% with an average holding period of 15 calendar days, that is, half a month. Since January 2022, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. I went off course in October, in particular, and November, and the list got hammered, but December saw a bit of recovery. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have tweaked the screening methodology over the past two weeks in hopes of avoiding a repeat of October-November, and for the purpose of hopefully improving overall performance, but there are no guarantees. As always, I attempt to recognize and respond to the need for tweaks. This is an ongoing experiment. You should make your own judgments accordingly. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile, for the week ended December 30, applying the additional filters, there were just 2 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 10 with second or third sells. I did not like any of the sells as shorts. They were mostly rangebound noise type signals. Of the two buys, one had an impressive chart, and I added that one to the list (shown below), despite it being a biotech, a sector which I normally avoid. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new pick will start without a stop, as usual. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week, along with the six that weren’t, are shown on the table below. After adding the new pick, there will be 1 buy and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Here’s Where Short Term Signals Either Confirm Bullish Or Else

The technical picture is a mixed bag this week. It leans bullish in the short run, but still toppy to bearish over the intermediate term. That could all change on Tuesday. Here’s what to look for.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Overloaded with Broad Market Shorts and Oil and Gas Longs

Sticking to the method that I developed for this exercise finally paid off last week. The list returned to solid profitability for the week, after a frustrating quarter. For the week, the list showed an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of just 6 calendar days.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

But the market is still rangebound. Until that changes and there’s a trend breakout where we can hold winners for more than a millisecond, it will continue to be a dogfight in this theoretical attempt to extract meaningful swing trade profits week in and week out.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Holiday Wishes from Lee to You

With the holidays here, I know that you and your fellow subscribers will be busy with more important things, so I will also take the opportunity for a little down time.

I will post a swing trade chart picks update this weekend. Then I will take a few days to relax and enjoy the season before resuming regular publication after New Year’s Day.

I wish you and your families the Merriest Christmas and Happiest New Year, Happiest Hannukah, Kwanza, and Festivus for the rest of us.

I want to thank all of you for helping me to have a very good year. Here’s to a good 2023!

Lee

Composite Liquidity Still Bearish, No End in Sight

The US Treasury has been pumping a gusher of cash into the market ecosystem in December, but Composite Liquidity remains flat. And that, my friends is bearish.

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The Treasury continues to need a hundred billion a month or so in funding that it gets by selling long term debt into the market. That constant new supply of debt that it sells in the market puts a lid on any attempted bullish moves in either stocks or bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The components of macro liquidity are still not conducive to being able to fully absorb that supply, and therefore put in a bottom to the liquidation of stocks. Liquidation of stocks will continue to be a necessary feature of absorbing the constant supply of Treasuries (not to mention increased debt issuance by other sovereigns).

In that context, every rally in stocks is a gift to short sellers. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As I discussed in the last review, it’s not useful in this environment to view the market as oversold. In this report I show you the charts that give the reasons for this view. And I propose both strategies and tactics to take full advantage of this environment. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!

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