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Category: Fed, Central Bank and Banking Macro Liquidity

Analysis of the major forces of macro liquidity that drive markets. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Fed’s Welfare Program for Wall Street Has Stemmed the Crisis, But Not the Bleeding

The Fed has pumped almost $311 billion into the accounts of Primary Dealers since mid September. Here’s what that has done and what it hasn’t, and why you should be worried.

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Macro Liquidity Is Surging Thanks to Uncle Fedster

The Fed has been pumping money into the system hand over fist since mid September when it restarted QE. It’s working… to a degree. But there are problems.

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Surprise Surprise, The Fed is Buying Whatever The Treasury Is Selling

The Fed is taking up all new Treasury issuance, dollar for dollar.  Must be a coincidence.

Uh…

No…

Here’s what it means and what to do about it.

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Bond Market Is a Ticking Bomb Despite Fed QE New

With QE New the Fed has the tools and the power to push money rates down, and it is succeeding. But it’s not succeeding in the bond market. The crisis is worsening there.  Here’s what’s going on, and what to look for.

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QE New Balloons Fed Balance Sheet

It’s official. QE New has reversed 5 months of previous Fed balance sheet normalization. Here’s what the “new normal” means for your investments. It might not be what you think.

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The New Fed QE Is Here- It’s Permanent, But Is It Bullish?

The Fed’s new TOMO has already hit a quarter trillion. It may not be QE in name, but it is in fact. And make no mistake. Regardless of what they call it, it will become official and permanent. Here’s a look back on how we knew it was coming and a look ahead on what to expect from it for the markets.

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Money Rates Explode (No Surprise To Us) – Fed Must Print or Die

I have been warning for months that once the debt ceiling was lifted the money markets would tighten dramatically. It’s happening. Here’s a rundown of the banking indicators, how they led up to this, what they’re telling us now, and my recommendation on what to do about it.

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Fed Balance Sheet Says The Fat Lady Has Sung

Normalization is dead. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is all she wrote. A little bit of Fed POMO  won’t be enough to save the bond market, or stocks for that matter.

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Stock Market Still Historically Overbought Vs. Macro Liquidity

In July we saw that the market was at a record overbought extreme versus liquidity.  I warned then that the bullishness we saw earlier this summer would be short lived. The market has corrected a bit. This report shows why that warning remains as applicable as ever.

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Danger! Speculative Debt Financing Has Driven The Rally

The uptrend is particularly hot in loans to non bank financial institutions. That is composed largely of margin and repo loans. It’s clear that this borrowing has been a prime driver of the rallies in stocks and bonds. Live by leverage, die by leverage.

The data shows that the end is nigh.

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