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Category: US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

Analysis of new Treasury supply and major demand market segments to estimate market liquidity impacts for bonds and stocks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Everything Looks Great When the US Treasury Pumps Cash Into the Market

The US Treasury continues to pay down T-Bills. That puts cash back into the accounts of the dealers and investors that had held the securities that are being redeemed. That, in turn, continues to stoke demand for longer dated notes and bonds. It has also contributed to the demand for stocks.

In the short run, all this cash makes everything look great, but don’t be misled. Click here to download the report (Subscribers Only)

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We Knew the Treasury Paydowns Would Be Bullish, But What Now?

Last month in the Treasury Supply update (May 16) I wrote that the debt ceiling would continue to force the Treasury to pay down debt, short term T-bills in particular. I said that the paydowns “will continue until the end of Q2. That’s bullish for bonds, and possibly for stocks.”

But then I said that the picture changes radically in Q3. And that has not changed. Here’s what’s happened so far, what’s likely for the third quarter, and then the big change that’s coming. Having this information will help you to continue to take advantage of the market’s big move, and to be ready for when and how it’s likely to change.

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Federal Budget Data is a Bad News-Bad News Story

Tax collections were strong in May except for a dip that coincided with the Nonfarm Payrolls survey. Here’s why that’s unequivocally bad news for the markets and why you need to get ready for a delayed shock reaction.

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Federal Tax Data for May Says Beware of Jobs Surprise

Tax collections suggest jobs and other economic data for May will surprise the market.

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Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. 

Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, June 4 and get the first month free!

This offer applies to first time subscribers only. Quarterly billing will begin on the 31st day unless you cancel before that date. The first 90 days from initial signup are risk free for first time subscribers.

Primary Dealer Positions Bulging, Bloated, and Overstuffed, Could Explode

Primary Dealer positions are record long, record leveraged, and record dangerous.

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Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, May 22 and get the first month free!

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Ticking Time Bomb In The Treasury Market Could Blow Up The World

The Treasury market will look very bullish for a little while. But the aftermath of the forces that look bullish now, will be terrible. Here’s why.

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Treasury Boosts Market With Paydowns Now, But You’ll Be the One Paying the Piper Later

The US Treasury is playing games that make the stock and bond markets look good now. But here’s why you’ll be the one stuck with the bill later, in the form of falling prices.

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Federal Budget Data Reveals Growth But Hides Ticking Time Bomb

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in report

Tax collections for April and real time data into early May showed a strong economy until last week. Then something went wrong.

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Current Federal Withholding Tax Collection Data Give Fed No Excuse To Ease

Withholding Tax Chart - Full sized in report

Withholding tax collections through May 7 remain strong.

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Primary Dealer Positions Are a Black Cloud Over the Market

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Dealer positions look scary. Here’s why, and what to do about it to protect yourself, AND take advantage!

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