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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

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This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes.

I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total

The Treasury is injecting still more cash into the market, on top of the $96 billion it already staged last week. It announced on Tuesday (Feb 23) that it will do a third round of T-bill paydowns, this for $25 billion, settling on March 3. This is on top of the $55 billion that is settling today, February 23, and the $41 billion to be settled on Thursday, February 25.

This means that the US Treasury will have injected a total of $125 billion in cash into the market in a week.

These announcements have done no good so far. The prices of longer term Treasuries continue to crash, as this chart of the 20 year Treasury bond ETF shows. It remains to be seen if the actual settlements of the cash, starting today, will help.

As collateral calls go out to dealers, the selling has begun to impact stock prices, as I have long forecast would occur. The crisis that I have warned about is upon us.

Do not be lulled into a false sense of security by the sanguinity of Jaysus Powell and his henchmen at the Fed and in the Wall Street media establishment.  The financial system is yet a again at an existential crossroads, and the Fed has yet to indicate that it understands the seriousness of the problem that it has caused with its ever larger and larger systemic bailouts and encouragement of ever increasing moral hazard.

At some point the problem becomes too big to rectify.

To stay ahead of these developments read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

The balance of this report is from our last update. 

The Treasury is spending this money out if its $1.6 trillion cash hoard.  Treasury officials are obviously in a panic over the plunge in Treasury note and bond prices that accompanies the surge in the 10 year Treasury yield.

With good reason.

This will have an effect similar to Fed QE. Treasury paydowns put cash directly into the accounts of the dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest cash.

The Treasury’s goal is to force the former holders of the short term bills to reinvest the cash further out on the yield curve in order to stem the rise in yields and the fall in bond prices.

The injection of $96 billion comes just before the Treasury settles the regularly scheduled net issuance of new notes and bonds at the turn of the month. This cash will help the market to absorb that new paper. Net issuance of that paper will be $174 billion. This was as forecast by the TBAC.

The declining bond prices are crushing the leveraged portfolios of Primary Dealers, with the resulting collateral calls. There’s been an imminent threat of contagion into stocks, and ultimately a systemic crash. We’ve seen vestiges of it in the form of downdrafts in stock prices in recent days. So far, they have not been sustained.

I have been warning about this approaching catastrophe for months. It now appears to be upon us. The Treasury’s injection, and any subsequent ones, will mitigate against that risk for the time being.

See these reports for more details, charts, and explanation, as well as strategy viewpoints.

Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse

Free Report – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Liquidity Trader Subscriber Reports –

Primary Dealers are Already Dead – Free Summary

Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears – Free Summary

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Bear With Me, Here’s Why I Gotta Stay Long

If you are a cranky grizzly like me, you want to be short. Well, trust me, any time someone says , “Trust me,” I don’t trust them. But regardless, I am not shorting. Not even close. The market is going higher. It may even be going a lot higher for a lot longer. That’s what cycle projections and long term indicators are showing at the moment.  That said, my trading horizon is no more than several weeks, and for that we have 13 chart picks that look well positioned for nice moves.

So come along, peek inside, and I’ll show you why, and how we might capitalize prudently.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Mealy Mouthed Technical Analyst Gets Punched in The Mouth

Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” OK, so the market didn’t quite punch us in the mouth last week, but it did lull me to sleep last weekend. No worries. This week, there were so many charts with buy signals, I’m going all YOLO.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

If you want to join the fun and see the 15 new stocks on the list, click below.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Last Week Won’t Lead to a Crash – Yet

There were lots of sell signals last week, but this isn’t the big one. Yet. We just need to be prepared for it.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Cycle Analysis Target Projections Point Higher Still

Near term cycle projections have risen as the relentless mania just trends right along. We may as well take advantage, right? I’ve added a couple of swing trade chart picks that look well positioned to do just that.

What about all those sell signals? Failed again. Short sellers are setting themselves up as targets in a carnival shooting gallery. That’s typical of an entrenched mania.

When and where will it end? I’ve posted near term and longer term projections based on current trends and cycles.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Lots of Signals, Mostly Sells, Means Good Shorts Ahead

Short term cycles have topped out and concurrent down phases are ideally due to last 2-3 weeks. With weak upward momentum in the 6 month cycAle, the potential exists for a significant downdraft. That, in turn would signal the onset of a 6 month cycle down phase. This is the best shot that bears have had for a turn in the tide since August-September.

As a result, I’m shifting my focus to be alert for more swing trade chart picks on the short side.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

How to Play the S&P Heading for 4200

This report shows why that’s the target, and adds a few more swing trade picks to take advantage.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Projections Point Higher, So When Will Shorts Start Working?

Cycle configurations remain bullish. I have updated cycle projections for both the short and intermediate term, and the long term. There’s no respite in sight for bears yet, but a few more shorts than usual showed up in this week’s chart picks. Here’s what that could

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are for informational purposes, aimed at a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.