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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

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Stock Market Says, Here Comes the Judge, All Rise

The 6 month cycle up phase reasserted itself last week.

All of the short term cycles up to 13 weeks resychronized with the 6 month cycle upturn. Cycle projections rose across the short term and intermediate spectrum. I also ran the regular quarterly update of long term projections. They also rose.

I should point out that those long term projections first pointed toward the market reaching 3900 last July, and pointing to 4000 in October, when the S&P was at 3300. We should not take the fact lightly that they now point higher still.

The swing trade chart picks list showed a small gain of 1.2% on average with an average holding period of just 4 days, as all but one pick, were new. This weekend I chose 4 new picks which appeared to have good potential for a decent sized swing move. All were buys.

The current screen had an impressive 75 bullish signals against just 8 bearish signals. But that’s less than half of last weekend’s buy signals. This diminution is normal as a trend progresses. The current numbers are still relatively large, suggesting that we remain in the early stages of the move.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Play Ball! Stock Market Swings For the Fences in Season Opener

Friday’s rally appears to support that we’re in the early days of a 6 month cycle up phase. We have been expecting it in this time window.  Ditto for the 10-12 month cycle, which has been trending anyway. Those two cycles should now be in gear to the upside for a few months. This would normally cause shorter cycles to resync from that low, and also to have extended uplegs.

This weekend’s screens of some 9000 listed stocks generated a whopping 163 short term signals from key levels. An equally impressive 155 were on the buy side. Furthermore, three of the sell signals were on inverse ETFs. Therefore 158 signals were bullish. Only 5 were bearish. This suggests a big turn with lots of thrust. It’s consistent with a 6 month cycle upturn.

But I was underwhelmed when I viewed those charts. Most were ambiguous. This doesn’t give me enough to conclude that we’re going to have a sustained power move.

From my visual review, I chose 8 charts which appeared to have good potential for a decent sized swing move. All were buys. If this works out as it should, we’ll get 2 or 3 runners from this group while the rest have small gains or small losses.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

A Little Pullback with Big Implications

The upward path of prices got slammed at midweek, just as the S&P 500 had crossed the centerlines of a couple of channels. The index then fell to below the long-term channel from last year’s low. So this little pullback turns out to be very, very significant. It has led the SPX to a major inflection point.

So now we wait for a signal on what the market will do about it. I have added a few chart picks to take advantage, Most of them are on the sell side. It’s been a while since there have been more short picks than longs.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Rally Is Set to Accelerate if These Benchmarks Trigger

Last week I wrote that the 6 month cycle low setup was forming. Was this rally the beginning of the up phase? While we don’t have 6 month cycle indicator confirmation yet, my best guess is that it was the beginning of the upturn in the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles. And there are signs of potential acceleration. This report shows you the levels that would signal another upsurge, along with the targets for the move, and stock charts that look favorably positioned to participate and potentially outperform.

Chart picks did well last week. With a dozen picks last Monday, all on the buy side, the list was well positioned to take advantage of the rally. Including the short sale that was closed with a loss on Monday’s open, the list showed an average gain of 4.7%, assuming 100% cash basis, no margin or options, with an average holding period of 10 calendar days, as of Monday, March 15.

I am adding 4 new picks, all buys, as of Monday’s open.

The screens generated 27 charts with the kinds of signals I look for. 16 of those were buys. One of the sells was an inverse ETF. Therefore 17 of the 27 signals were bullish. This is somewhat less than each day for the previous week, when buys were running 90-95% of the screen results.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

FREE REPORT – How To Pick Swing Trades

Originally posted on Capitalstool’s Stool Pigeons Wire, where I do a lot of thinking out loud with a few friends. It’s a means of helping me to process and retain information for posterity. 

Yesterday I posted the raw output of the daily technical screen I run of some 8700 listed NYSE and Nasdaq stonks. I pre filter for a minimum price of 6 bucks and minimum average volume of a million shares per day over the past 4 weeks.  The I apply technical filters looking for short term cycle buy and sell signals near key longer period cycle support ranges. There were 34 results yesterday, all but one on the long side.

28 of those ended with a gain from the opening price. Of course one of the losers was the short. The average gain, including the losers, was 2.2%.

Time for a Stock Market Six Month Cycle Low

The all important 6 month and 10-12 month cycles are coming into the idealized time window for a low. Whether last week was it is doubtful at the moment. Indicators on cycles all the way down to 4 weeks are not yet on buy signals. 4 week cycle indicators are on the cusp. This report shows you where things stand and what needs to happen to trigger the next big move.

Last week the swing trade chart pick list showed an average gain of 1.2% on an average holding period of 10 calendar days. Unfortunately, one pick was an absolute disaster, crushing the list average. 8 picks were stopped out. 4 remain. One will be closed as of Monday’s open.

Technical screens of 8700 listed issues generated 79 charts with swing trade signals based on Friday’s close. 74 of those were buy signals. Only 5 were sell signals. After visual review of those 79 charts, I have selected 10 additions to the swing trade chart pick list.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes.

I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total

The Treasury is injecting still more cash into the market, on top of the $96 billion it already staged last week. It announced on Tuesday (Feb 23) that it will do a third round of T-bill paydowns, this for $25 billion, settling on March 3. This is on top of the $55 billion that is settling today, February 23, and the $41 billion to be settled on Thursday, February 25.

This means that the US Treasury will have injected a total of $125 billion in cash into the market in a week.

These announcements have done no good so far. The prices of longer term Treasuries continue to crash, as this chart of the 20 year Treasury bond ETF shows. It remains to be seen if the actual settlements of the cash, starting today, will help.

As collateral calls go out to dealers, the selling has begun to impact stock prices, as I have long forecast would occur. The crisis that I have warned about is upon us.

Do not be lulled into a false sense of security by the sanguinity of Jaysus Powell and his henchmen at the Fed and in the Wall Street media establishment.  The financial system is yet a again at an existential crossroads, and the Fed has yet to indicate that it understands the seriousness of the problem that it has caused with its ever larger and larger systemic bailouts and encouragement of ever increasing moral hazard.

At some point the problem becomes too big to rectify.

To stay ahead of these developments read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

The balance of this report is from our last update. 

The Treasury is spending this money out if its $1.6 trillion cash hoard.  Treasury officials are obviously in a panic over the plunge in Treasury note and bond prices that accompanies the surge in the 10 year Treasury yield.

With good reason.

This will have an effect similar to Fed QE. Treasury paydowns put cash directly into the accounts of the dealers, banks, and investors who hold the expiring paper. The paydown of the expiring paper will simultaneously create a shortage of paper in which to reinvest cash.

The Treasury’s goal is to force the former holders of the short term bills to reinvest the cash further out on the yield curve in order to stem the rise in yields and the fall in bond prices.

The injection of $96 billion comes just before the Treasury settles the regularly scheduled net issuance of new notes and bonds at the turn of the month. This cash will help the market to absorb that new paper. Net issuance of that paper will be $174 billion. This was as forecast by the TBAC.

The declining bond prices are crushing the leveraged portfolios of Primary Dealers, with the resulting collateral calls. There’s been an imminent threat of contagion into stocks, and ultimately a systemic crash. We’ve seen vestiges of it in the form of downdrafts in stock prices in recent days. So far, they have not been sustained.

I have been warning about this approaching catastrophe for months. It now appears to be upon us. The Treasury’s injection, and any subsequent ones, will mitigate against that risk for the time being.

See these reports for more details, charts, and explanation, as well as strategy viewpoints.

Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse

Free Report – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Liquidity Trader Subscriber Reports –

Primary Dealers are Already Dead – Free Summary

Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears – Free Summary

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days!

Act on real-time reality!

Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Bear With Me, Here’s Why I Gotta Stay Long

If you are a cranky grizzly like me, you want to be short. Well, trust me, any time someone says , “Trust me,” I don’t trust them. But regardless, I am not shorting. Not even close. The market is going higher. It may even be going a lot higher for a lot longer. That’s what cycle projections and long term indicators are showing at the moment.  That said, my trading horizon is no more than several weeks, and for that we have 13 chart picks that look well positioned for nice moves.

So come along, peek inside, and I’ll show you why, and how we might capitalize prudently.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s weekly swing trade chart picks with Lee Adler’s Technical Trader, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.