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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

On the week, buy signals overwhelmed sell signals, thanks to Friday’s rebound, but they had the lead earlier in the week as well. The final score for the week was 186 Buys to 125 Sells. That compares with the prior week’s  235 Buys to 147 Sells and 114 Buys to 118 Sells the week before that. However, on Friday alone, there were 101 buys and just 13 sells. This suggests an up week ahead.

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The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 48 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 3 on the sell side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 3 buys and no shorts. For the second straight week, all the buys were in the energy business.

Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 3 buys. The rest were short sales. Two picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I elected to close out one on Monday’s open. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 1.9% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks in May have so far averaged a gain of 2.9% on an average holding period of 11 days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen to often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days. The 5 picks closed out in May so far had an average gain of 4.3% on and average holding period of 12 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 23 picks including the 3 new ones. 17 of the 23 picks are short sales.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

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Market Rebound Still Leaves Crash Risk Intact

Friday’s rally brought the market back above downtrending support lines, but did not break any significant trend resistance lines. I must assume that the bearish intermediate trend remains in force until more evidence to the contrary.

Here’s what we need to look for, including downside price and time projections and key resistance levels that must be broken to break the downtrend. Barring those breakthroughs, crash risk remains. (Non subscribers click here to access).

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Buys Beat Shorts in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

There were more buys than sells in last week’s daily screens. That may be because there so many charts that had triggered sell signals in the prior three weeks, and they were still playing on the sell side. But whatever the cause, the final score for the week was 235 Buys to 147 Sells. That compared with 114 Buys to 118 Sells the week before. However, on Friday alone, there were just 44 buys and 71 sells. Most of the time, Friday tends to set the tone for the next week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.
I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The final lists this week resulted in 43 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 17 on the sell side. Again, the plurality of buy signals may have merely begin that there were so few charts that had not already gone to the sell side in recent weeks.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 3 buys (all oil and gas related) and 4 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below.

Last week we started with 21 picks on the list. There were no buys. 21 were short sales. That was an unprecedented tilt in number and unanimity. Five picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.8% with an average holding period of 9 days.

I’d like to repeat that every week. Pretty soon we’d be talking real money. 😋

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen too often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days. The 5 picks closed out in May so far had an average gain of 4.3% on and average holding period of 12 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 23 picks including the 7 new ones. 20 of the 23 picks are short sales.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

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Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Big Tops Lead to Big, Bad Bear Markets

This market is in the process of completing a huge top. Bear markets that are preceded by huge top patterns tend to last at least 18 months and may go on for as long as 30 months before reaching a final bottom. 1929-33 was an outlier at 42 months. That one lost 90%. We’ve had a couple of 50% off sales in the past 90 years since then.

Cycles – The 13 week cycle appears to be in a down phase headed for a low in xxxx xxxx or the xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx, with a projection range of xxxx-xxxx (Non subscribers click here to access). 6 month and 10-12 month cycles seem to be in down phases that are out of sync with where they should be. That implies that the next longer cycles are in bear markets and are skewing the big intermediate swing cycle waves lower for longer.

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Third Rail Chart – The market would need to end the week above xxxx to break the 4 crash channels currently defining the trend. And even if they are clear of xxxx on Friday, that only gives them room for a bigger bounce while not completing a reversal pattern (Non subscribers click here to access)

On the other hand, a daily close below xxxx would open the floodgates on the downside. The proximate target would then be xxxx, and below that xxxx. Such a breakdown would complete an enormous top pattern with a conventional measured move target of xxxx (Non subscribers click here to access).

Long Term Weekly- The 3-4 year cycle top is nearly complete. A breakdown below xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) would confirm. This also looks like a 7 year cycle top. Confirmation will lag.

Monthly Chart – Trend support broke at the end of April. They’d need to end May above xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) to recover within that channel. Trend support is indicated around xxxx in May. If that doesn’t hold, then the target would be a support convergence around xxxx, with the next target xxxx if that fails.

Cycle Screening Measures –  These measures rebounded a bit last week but remain negative overall, and in a xxxxxxxxxx (non subscribers click here to access) pattern on the chart..

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens Yield A Boatload of Short Sales

Last week’s daily screens were surprisingly neutral for the week as a whole. The final score for the week was 114 Buys to 118 Sells. However, many of those buys were inverse funds, so that there was still a modest tilt to the sell side. And on Friday alone, there were just 12 buys and 44 sells, a negative sign for this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreened that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 32 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 131 on the sell side. However, of the 32 on the sell side, 15 were inverse funds. That means that nearly 90% of the charts that made the final cut were on the short sale side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose no buys and 13 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below. While I don’t track this number, the 13 picks on the short sale side were certainly a record.

Last week we started with 13 picks on the list. 5 were buys, 8 were short sales. Four picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I closed another as of the opening New York price last Monday. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.4% with an average holding period of 10 days.

April was a challenging month. Picks closed out in April had an average gain of 0.9% with an average holding period of 10 calendar days. Yep, it was choppy. March was the first full month where I used multiple days of screening. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we will start with 21 picks on the list including the 13 new ones. All 21 picks are short sales. That’s a first. If there’s a V-shaped reversal, it’s gonna leave a mark.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table in the report. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Market Outlook Going from Bad to Worse, Fast

Downtrend channels are steepening as liquidity dries up, and wave amplitude increases. It is violent, and could be increasingly so to the xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 6 month cycle up phase was truncated early. An initial downside projection points to xx-xxxxx (non subscribers click here to access). Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle lows are ideally due from xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

The 13 week cycle low is ideally due xxxx xx to xxxx xx (non subscribers click here to access), with a new projection of xxxx. The 6-8 week cycle low is due xxxx, with the projection range reaching xxxx

The premature failure of the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phases have set up a test of a support convergence around xxxx (non subscribers click here to access). Breaking that would suggest a crash that could be similar to that of xxxxxxxxxx, or even worse.

Third Rail Chart – To break the crash they’ll now need to at least break a trendline running from xxxx to xxxx this week (non subscribers click here to access). On the other hand, if they break the February low of 4214 this could xxxx xxxx xxxx, xxxx. Minor support is indicated around xxxx and xxxx. A more likely target would be around xxxx on May xx. But it could just as easily get there by xxxx xxx xxxxxx if the market breaks down on Monday.

Long Term Weekly- The 3-4 year cycle top is nearly complete. A breakdown below xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) would confirm. This also looks like a 7 year cycle top. Confirmation will lag.

Monthly Chart – Trend support broke at the end of April. They’d need to end May above xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) to recover within that channel. Trend support is indicated around xxxx in May. If that doesn’t hold, then the target would be a support convergence around xxxx, with the next target xxxx if that fails.

Cycle Screening Measures – All measures are weak and support a xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx term outlook.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip Flop

No surprise, last week’s daily screens tilted to the sell side. The final score for the week was 148 Buys to 187 Sells. That’s still a lot of buys, but that was Monday to Wednesday. That got reversed and then some on Thursday and Friday.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

On Friday alone, there were just 19 buys and 144 sells That bodes ill for this week.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday for the holiday shortened week. I then rescreened that output, for additional signals in the progression on Wednesday and Thursday. The final lists this week resulted in 67 chart pick candidates on the buy side and just 8 on the sell side. Slim pickings for shorts this week.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose no buys and 7 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below.

Last week we started with 8 picks on the list. 6 were buys, 2 were short sales. Two picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I will close another as of the opening New York price this morning. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.2% with an average holding period of 12 days.

Picks closed out in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Picks closed out in April so far have had an average gain of 0.8% with an average holding period of 11 days. Yep, it has been choppy.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we will start with 12 picks on the list including the 7 new ones. 4 are buys. 8 are shorts. I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table in the report (non-subscribers click here for access). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Ugly Whipsaw Revives Crash Potential in Stocks

The market did an abrupt about-face after breaking out of a crash channel to begin the week. That about-face put the market right back in that channel.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – Shorter cycles are still in gear to the downside. A 6-8 week cycle low is still due by xxxx xx (non subscribers click here to access) within a projection range dropping to xxxx-xxxx. The incipient potential up phase in the 10-12 month cycle seems to have aborted. The 6 month cycle up phase is also on the verge of a possible early failure. A breakdown in price this week would imply xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx.

Third Rail Chart – To break out of the crash channel they’ll need to clear 3 resistance levels. This week, they are around xxxx xxxx and xxxx (non subscribers click here to access). To break the intermediate downtrend, they would need to clear xxxx. They would merely need to break xxxx by the end of this week to keep the crash channel intact. If it were to happen sooner, that would signal acceleration of the downtrend.

Long Term Weekly- The 3-4 year cycle is in a top phase, but it still has an unmet projection of xxxx that can’t be ruled out until the top breaks down. That would require a weekly close below xxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

A 7 year cycle top is due this year in a projection range of xxxx-xxxx(non subscribers click here to access).

Monthly Chart – Trend support is around xxxx in April. If that breaks, the next target would be the trendline around xxxx-xxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate whipsawed violently last week. Notably, it made both a xxxx high and a xxxx low within the space of two days. The pattern is now xxxxxx for both the short term and intermediate term (non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip to Buy Side

Last week’s daily screens tilted to the buy side, going against weakness in the market averages. The final score for the week was 97 Buys to 37 Sells. That reversed 3 straight weeks with a plurality of sells.  Prior to this 3 week run, buy signals had held the edge for 3 weeks.  Cycles!

However, on Thursday April 14 alone, there were just 6 buys and 33 sells, portending a soft start for this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.
I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday for the holiday shortened week. I then rescreened that output, for additional signals in the progression on Wednesday and Thursday. The final lists this week resulted in 67 chart pick candidates on the buy side and just 8 on the sell side. Slim pickings for shorts this week.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 4 buys and no shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below (Non subscribers click here for access).

Last week we started with 9 picks on the list. 3 were buys, 6 were short sales. Five picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.8% with an average holding period of 11 days.

Picks closed out in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Picks closed out in April so far have had an average gain of 1.8% with an average holding period of 11 days.

It would be nice if we could annualize these numbers, but reality doesn’t work that way.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we will start with 7 picks on the list including the 4 new ones. 6 are buys. 2 are shorts.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (non-subscribers click here for access). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Stocks Are Not Breaking Bad

We’re on the doorstep of massive T-bill paydowns over the next 4 weeks, that are a bullish influence every year at this time. But stocks aren’t acting like it. Or are they? Surprisingly, cyclical breadth momentum indicators are not acting as badly as the market averages.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

What’s it mean? The market still looks xxxx xxxxx xxxxx (non subscribers click here to access), but that xxxx looks like it will come from xxxx xxxx first. There’s little sign of an immediate collapse, just a xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxxx, then finally, the rally that fools the majority.

Here’s how it should play out (Non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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