Category: 2 – Advanced Cycle Analytics

The S&P 500 broke out of its multi-week triangle pattern, but there’s reason to be cautious and treat this as an opportunity to reduce risk. Those reasons are explained and illustrated in the report. The Dow remains stronger, though that strength is concentrated in a handful of heavily weighted names. Most cycles are still nominally pointed higher, but signals in the most important intermediate cycle are troubling, and indicators across several timeframes are sitting inconclusively near neutral. The question is which way they are more likely to break in both the short and intermediate term.

This report explains the setups, and points out the levels where you should be prepared to act.

The S&P 500 remains pinned in a tightening triangle pattern, with cycle indicators split between an exhausted 6-month uptrend and fresh strength in the underlying cycle screens, leaving this week’s close as the to be tie-breaker for the next directional move. Here’s what the data shows about the likely outcome. Is it true that flat is, as flat does, or are there hidden signs and portents?

The pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in.

The S&P meltup holds within all uptrend channels with the path of least resistance still up. Longer cycle projections have pulled back and cyclical breadth momentum is weakening.  The advance is aging but there’s no sign of top formation other than in momentum, and that alone is insufficient to signal top formation.

The two remaining picks on the list have an average gain of 47.1% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days. They remain a hold, without stops, at least until the next review next week. I am still adding no new picks.

The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.