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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Bears Last Custard Stand

The major cycle technical bear case may already be dead. This week is probably the last chance for bears to reassert themselves and regain the upper hand. Otherwise, indications will tilt toward a 3-4 year cycle low is behind us.

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That doesn’t mean that a major secular upleg is ahead. I would expect something along the lines of a late 1960s, early 70s cycle bull move that merely retests the 2021 high. But this is conjecture. December is the month where one side or the other must prove itself. As of now, bulls have the edge, but if the month ends with the S&P 500 below xxxx, bears get the ball again. Non subscribers click here to access.

In the short run, my trading posture would be to xxxx xxxx dips and xxxx xxxxx rips, but not to xxxx them yet. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles- The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between now and xxxxxxx xx. Cycle projections have now risen to xxxx-xxxx. If they clear resistance in the xxxx-xxxx zone, I would take that projection as a given. If they don’t, then we watch day to day for signs of whether it’s a top or consolidation. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – Bears need the SPX to end the week below xxxx to have a shot at reversing the rally. Ultimately, a breakdown below xxxx would be required to get anything going on the downside. If resistance in the xxxx-xxxx is cleared, the next target area would be around xxxx, and if that’s broken then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The surge in 10-12 month cycle momentum suggests that the market will make a run at xx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That in turn could trigger a cascade of longer term buy signals on 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators. This week seems like the bears’ last chance to make a stop and regain the upper hand. Non subscribers click here to access.

Updated long term cycle projections suggest that the bottom is behind us. There’s still time for reversion to something more consistent with a bear market if the rally reverses and ends December weaker than xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx . That’s a big if. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The rally needs to end December below xxxx, or the bear case will be in trouble, at least in the short run. Clearing that level would imply a target of the trendline at xxxx or the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Bullish short and intermediate term patterns established in early November have yet to be broken. A couple of down days would be needed this week to break that trend. Likewise, continued strength would be a bullish indication for the longer cycles.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts)

For the week ended November 25, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 54 sells. 3 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 43 bullish and 57 bearish signals. That’s the second consecutive week of a bearish tilt in new signals, and a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side two weeks before.

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Bear in mind that this is but a fraction of the 1300-1400 issues that normally meet the minimum screening criteria of price of $6+ and average volume over a million per day for the past 4 weeks. Therefore the past two weeks of small numbers of sell signal pluralities did not overcome the bullish thrust of two weeks before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

11/21/22 This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I again reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I again came up empty on the buy side. I was equally unimpressed with the sell signals, but there were two that I liked enough to add to the list for this week. All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with 3 longs and 7 shorts. I added or adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, we saw good performance, but it is tenuous. There were 7 winners and 1 loser. The average gain was 5.4% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

November has been a struggle. On picks closed out this month, the list has shown an average loss of 1.9% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. If there are profits this week, that will even out somewhat. Over the past 12 months, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear

4000 is not only a nice round number, but it coincides with technical levels and indications that will tell us in the next few days whether the rally is finished, or whether the bear market is finished.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

I’ve made clear that I think that all the speculation about easier Fed policy ahead as the basis for a bull market will prove not only fruitless, but counterproductive. However, I will respect the technical verdict of the market. The judge has sent the jury out to deliberate.

Cycles– Short term cycles entered flat down phases last week, as was due. The 13 week cycle is overdue for a high, with the projection now xxxx. The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between xxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx. Cycle projections now point mostly to xxxxxxx, with the upper range of xxxxx on the 10-12 month cycle only possible if the short term pullback that is due is shallow. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – Short term uptrend channels remain intact. The key trendline to watch runs from xxxx to xxxx this week. Bears need to break that line to get anything going on the downside. To begin a more significant reversal, they would need a close below a second trendline that ends the week around xxxx. If that remains intact, then the uptrend remains in force. Non subscribers click here to access.

Friday’s close put the S&P 500 just above a long term downtrend line at xxxx. If it stays above this line this week, it would call the bear market into question. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – 11/14/22 The rally has confirmed a 6 month cycle up phase. There’s a slim chance of a top here if they hold the line at xxxx this week and drive the market lower on the week. Otherwise, there’s running room to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

There are no long term buy signals yet. But that could happen if the rally extends to the xxx area and consolidates there. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – 11/14/22 The upper boundary of the downtrend channel is around xxxx in November. Ending the month above that would suggest a new intermediate uptrend. Closing below that would reconfirm the downtrend. Non subscribers click here to access.

10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. We need to keep an eye on this. It’s an important key as to whether this is still a bear market or not. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – These measures remained in solidly positive territory. However, a negative divergence developed with the market averages. A couple of market down days this week would break the uptrend in this indicator that began over two months ago. However, early week strength would reconfirm the rally, and would also lead to a break in the bear market trend. An extension of the rally this week would also break the longer term bearish trend in the cumulative cycles measure. This is another indicator that we need to watch closely to show whether this is still a bear market, or a new bull market. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Cautiously Bearish

For the week ended November 18, there were 48 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 75 sells. 4 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 44 bullish and 79 bearish signals. That’s a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side the week before. That apparent strength fizzled in mid week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I came up empty on the buy side. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Most of the shorts looked premature. They still appear to have some bouncing to do before they roll over. But I liked 5 of them enough to add to the list. That will give it some balance, adding 5 shorts to the 5 longs still on the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I was cautious despite the huge number of buy signals. I added two longs to the list. They did poorly, and I’m looking to limit the losses by adding tight stops. The charts have deteriorated and I’m not willing to give them much more wiggle room for potential rebounds. I’m also cutting one other loser as of the opening price this morning, and tightening stops on the rest. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Stock Market Is Grinding Through Resistance

The question is whether resistance or upside momentum will win. The answer will come this week. Here are the directional signals.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Few Good Longs, No Good Shorts

For the week ended November 11, there were 173 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 19 with second or third sell signals, and one of those was a bear ETF, so the net score would have been 174 to 18. That is as lopsided as I’ve ever seen. There were too many buys to visually review all, and we already had longs on the list so I started with the sells, and then looked at as many buys as I had time for.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

In looking at the charts with sell signals, I saw only one that looked remotely interesting.  It was a Brazilian airline preferred stock. No thanks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Among the sampling of buys that I reviewed virtually all had already moved to just below resistance. Not ideal entry points. I found two that I liked enough to add to the list, as shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed

Suddenly the whole technical picture looks bullish. It makes me think that they’ve repealed Rule Number One.

But they haven’t of course. There may be enough technical momentum to keep the rally going for a bit longer, and cycle projections point that way. But ultimately, the reality of ever tightening liquidity must prevail.

The question is when. Cycle analysis says be on the lookout at any time over the next 7 weeks.  If all goes according to Hoyle, we will be able to read it in the technical indicators.

Here are the current price and time projections for where to look for the highs to develop.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks –100% Buys – Yikes!

For the week ended November 4, there were 35 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 48 with second or third sell signals. I visually reviewed the charts, and saw mostly rangebound whipsaw signals. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were 2 charts that I liked enough on the buy side to add to the list.  I added those without stops. There were a couple on the short side that I wanted to pull the trigger on, but there was something about each of the setups that I didn’t like. So I chose not to pick those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

3 shorts and 1 buy hit their stops last week. Including the new picks, that leaves the list with 7 picks, all longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Yikes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks picks are shown on the table below (subscriber version) with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

What To Do About an Anxiety Ridden, Conflicted Market

A number of technical signs say that the bulls have the upper hand here. But those signs aren’t uniform. And I don’t trust them because they violate the First Commandment of Investing. Thou shalt not fight the Fed. Prepare to meet thy maker if thou dost.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  Multiple cycles look to be headed in xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx over the next few months. xxxxxx the probability of a near term breakout xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 10-12 month cycle has ideally entered a xxxxx phase lasting through December. Any strength this week would indicate xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx that could carry back to the xxxxx-xxxxxx range before a xxxx in this cycle. Non subscribers click here to access.

On the other hand, any xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx this week would suggest that this cycle is topping out now. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, 6 month cycle indicators are on the razor’s edge of confirming that xxxxxx xxxxx xxx x xx. Any xxxxxx this week should trigger clear xxxxxxx signals. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   A weekly close above xxxx would break the 6 month cycle line, signaling an up phase in that cycle, with an initial target of around xxxx on this chart. Failure to be clear of xxxx at the end of the week would suggest that the 6 month cycle down phase remains intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Trend resistance will begin November at xxxx, after it appears that the SPX will end October above expected resistance around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The cycle screening aggregate plunged into negative territory, but it did not break the bullish short term or intermediate term patterns. The market would need to weaken further this week for that to happen. None of the negative divergences have formed that typically precede a significant downturn and moving average and cumulative versions of these indicators remain mildly bullish.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Adding a Few Buys While Meat Grinder Chews Up Shorts

It happens. Signals whipsaw, particularly in rangebound markets that I refer to as meat grinders. This has been one of those.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The last set of sell signals was wrong. I went with them wholeheartedly, and digging out has proven to be problematic, with a string of losses that wiped out a month’s worth of gains. I’m still trying to right the ship here, but recovery has been elusive so far. So I am proceeding with caution in looking at this week’s output. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week ended October 31, there were 51 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday, Friday and Monday, and 39 with second or third sell signals I visually reviewed the charts, in both groups, and saw mostly rangebound whipsaw signals. While some of the shorts seemed to have a little running room, the setups weren’t ideal for big moves, so I demurred on those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were 4 charts that I liked enough on the buy side to add to the list. I added those without stops. That will leave us with 8 picks, including 2 shorts and 6 buys. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Meanwhile I closed out 14 picks on the short side last week mostly by hitting stops with a few that I had set to trigger as of the opening price last Monday. The end result, including 3 picks left open, was an average loss of 4.9% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All picks close out last week along with open and new picks picks are shown on the table below with charts following. I adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

 

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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