Lee AdlerThe market is holding just under resistance, with the S&P 500 stalling at a multiple trend convergence zone and support suggested just below. Longer-cycle indicators show signs of a top, while the 6-month cycle remains uncertain. Short-term cycles are in a down phase, though a 4-week bounce is expected to begin from a low due xxxx xxxx xxxx. The Dow, VIX, and cycle screening data all have cautionary setups, although the market’s long-term uptrend channel remains intact.
The rally slowed last week after the market punched through major resistance to make new highs. The structure of the rally is intact, despite the slowing, but under the surface there are signs from the cycle screens that the advance is deteriorating. Meanwhile cycle projections still point higher across the board. They are consummations devoutly to be wished by some, and dreaded by others. For us, they are maximum potential indications. Indicator signals, and breaks of the key support or resistance will be the signs to tell us whether to stay in, bail out, or go short.
Last week’s geopolitically driven breakout confirmed the intermediate-term uptrend, creating a meltup channel in the S&P 500. Cycle projections have moved higher across the board. The short-term technical setup favors further gains. The longer-term trend remains bullish until major support levels shown in the report are broken.
Friday’s rally kept the S&P 500 in a rangebound pattern now three months old, with cycle work pointing toward xxxxxx formation stretching into September-October even as a longer-term path to xxxx stays on the table if resistance gives way.
The S&P 500’s triangle breakout failed immediately last week, and cycle, momentum, and breadth indicators are lining up around a synchronized outcome. This week’s action around key support levels should clarify what that outcome is likely to be. This report describes the criteria to watch, and what to expect if they are triggered.
The S&P 500’s triangle breakout failed immediately last week, and cycle, momentum, and breadth indicators are lining up around a synchronized outcome. This week’s action around key support levels should clarify what that outcome is likely to be. This report describes the criteria to watch, and what to expect if they are triggered.
The S&P 500 broke out of its multi-week triangle pattern, but there’s reason to be cautious and treat this as an opportunity to reduce risk. Those reasons are explained and illustrated in the report. The Dow remains stronger, though that strength is concentrated in a handful of heavily weighted names. Most cycles are still nominally pointed higher, but signals in the most important intermediate cycle are troubling, and indicators across several timeframes are sitting inconclusively near neutral. The question is which way they are more likely to break in both the short and intermediate term.
This report explains the setups, and points out the levels where you should be prepared to act.
The S&P 500 remains pinned in a tightening triangle pattern, with cycle indicators split between an exhausted 6-month uptrend and fresh strength in the underlying cycle screens, leaving this week’s close as the to be tie-breaker for the next directional move. Here’s what the data shows about the likely outcome. Is it true that flat is, as flat does, or are there hidden signs and portents?
The S&P 500 remains pinned in a tightening triangle pattern, with cycle indicators split between an exhausted 6-month uptrend and fresh strength in the underlying cycle screens, leaving this week’s close as the to be tie-breaker for the next directional move. Here’s what the data shows about the likely outcome. Is it true that flat is, as flat does, or are there hidden signs and portents?
The pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in.
The pre-market rally on Monday needs to prove itself. Short-term cycles haven’t confirmed an upturn. Cyclical breadth momentum has yet to break a pattern of lower highs and lows, and the 6-month cycle is in a topping window. The technical picture shows no sign of crash risk which has been foreshadowed in the liquidity analysis. But the upside from here looks limited. Here’s how much and how long with the data, proprietary charts, and analysis you need to decide whether to play, trim, short, get out or get in.
Friday’s selloff ended the SPX meltup channel and triggered sell signals across timeframes from 4-week through 6-month. This week is the decision point: further downside would invalidate longer-cycle upside projections and raise crash potential; a stabilization would at least delay the next decline. A weak rebound would suggest a deeper decline ahead. Here are the details, and the signs to look out for.