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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Swing Trade Screens – Buys Overwhelm Sells, It’s Late But One Sector Looks Ready to Roll

The final list of double screened output for last week had 89 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday. There were 24 charts with a second or third sell signals to end the week. Friday on a standalone basis had 67 buy signals and just 8 sell signals.

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It was an overwhelming show of force after 2 weeks when sell signals held the edge. The rally broadened last week. Given the duration of the rally already, I expected to see mostly second wind buy signals, which can be very profitable, but carry higher risk. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. I didn’t see any short side setups to get excited about. The charts with sell signals did not have good bear trend structures, so I demurred on the shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Most of the buys were extended, or approaching or at resistance – not good buy points. But I did find a few that appeared to have running room or breakout potential. I added 5 of them to the list below. 4 were oil and gas or related. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week I had decided to close out 3 shorts at Monday’s opening print. Those are shown on the table below. Another short hit its stop and it too is gone. The 5 picks closed out so far in August have only averaged a hair above breakeven on an average 2 week holding period. This is a poor performance, given the strength of the rally. I kept leaning to the short side, which exacted a cost. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I unfortunately added another short to the list and no longs last week. The result on all open and closed picks to start this week is an average gain of only 6.2% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks. These are shown on the tracking table in the report, along with the charts of open and new picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Yikes!

Last week I described how unbelievably bullish it all looked. That turned out to be correct, and could get worse from here (for bears).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  Cycle projections have risen.  Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phases now project to xxxx. The high on the 6 month cycle is due xxxxxxxx xx to xxxxxxx xx. The 10-12 month cycle high is due in xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx, suggesting a double top. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle projects to only xxxx. Shorter cycle projections suggest an interim high between here and xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  The measured move target of xxxx is now in play. The current meltup channel centerline will go from xxxx to xxxx this week. That needs to be broken to end this phase of the rally. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a cluster of longer term resistance lines from xxxx to xxxx. If they don’t stop this thing the next target would be the March high of xxxx. Yikes! Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The market faces major trend resistance xxxx xxxx at xxxx. If it clears that, it would have clearance to xxxx. An extension of the rally from here would start triggering longer term xxxx xxxxxxx. A rollover now from here would xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The patterns are very similar to March – April 2020, as you can see on the second chart.

If the market drops on Monday, it would set up a 3 step negative divergence that would normally signal that a short term market peak is at hand. But if it keeps going, it would show that cyclical breadth momentum is strengthening, which would suggest significantly more upside.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – One Bad Trade Hurt But the Rest Bailed Us Out for a Win

Looking at the final list of double screened output for last week there were 26 charts with multiple buy signals versus 31 the week before. Four of the buys were inverse ETFs including one bond fund, so the edge to the bear side was even bigger.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Surprisingly there were 59 charts with a second or third sell signal on the week, versus 29 the week before. This is the second straight week with an edge to the sell side. And the edge was much bigger in the more recent week. It may be a tell, but it doesn’t guarantee a reversal. Broad market indicators aren’t signaling a top yet. So we’ll see. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the purpose of this report, the focus is on individual stock swing trade picks anyway.
Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 16 buy signals and 51 sell signals.
I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. Obviously, I expected to find more sells than buys, like last week. Just one problem. Of the shorts that I chose last week, one was a profit killer. Fortunately, there were enough winners to overcome my one really lousy pick. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week 4 picks hit their stops and I will close 3 more as of this morning’s opening print. The result on all open and closed picks to start this week is an average gain of 2.3% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days.  I have added and adjusted stops on the remaining picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts, I didn’t see anything I liked on the buy side. Most of the sells looked too early. And many were bond funds. They looked good, but don’t move enough for our purposes. I only liked one chart on the sell side as a short, XXX. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Fasten Your Seatbelts – Updated Cycle Projections Are Shocking

I try not to argue with the market. Contrary to the belief of some Wall Street seers, the market is never wrong. It’s always right about the only thing that matters. The price. The price is the price. Nothing that you or I, or anyone else thinks about it will change that. It is what it is. There’s a reason for Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. It’s because in terms of trading, it’s all that matters.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Last week I talked about the need to suspend disbelief because Wall Street is theater. We need to believe But I’m having trouble believing these updated projections, just as I’m having trouble believing the Phillies winning every day lately. But I won’t argue with them. I’ll just shake my head and say “Hard to believe, Harry,” hearing Rich Ashburn’s deadpan drawl in my brain.  So until the market decisively tells us otherwise, you gotta believe this. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles We are looking at a projection of xxxx on the 6 month cycle, with a high due xxxxxxxx xx- xxxxxxxx xx. The 13 week cycle high is now overdue and the projection for that cycle now matches the 6 month cycle projection.  The 6-7 week cycle now points to a projected high of xxxx with the high overdue. Only 4 week cycle indicators are currently suggesting a down phase. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  Uptrend channels haven’t been violated yet. A meltup channel starts the week at xxxx and has an upslope of 24 points per day to end the week at xxxx, That should be broken easily. A daily close below xxxx would be required to trigger a bigger short term trend reversal. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The 10-12 month cycle bottom looks xxxx. The market is now entering an area of what should be massive resistance from xxxx to xxxx. 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators have not yet turned xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The cycle screening aggregate stayed strong all week for the second straight week. It has formed a negative divergence with the market averages indicating fewer stocks participating, but so far, there’s xxxx xxxx that xxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxx. We need a xxxx xxxx xxxx for a sell signal. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But…

We had them, but unfortunately, also had a few shorts that ate up much of what would have been phenomenal profits last week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at the final list of double screened output for last week there were 31 charts with multiple buy signals versus 54 the week before. 3 of those were inverse funds, which means that there were only 28 bullish signals. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were 29 charts with a second or third sell signal on the week, versus 14 the week before. Adding the 3 buy signals on the bearish ETFs makes 32 bearish signals. The fact that there were more bearish than bullish short term signals is surprising, if not shocking. Non-subscribers click here for access.

These numbers remain quite small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The rally did not have a broad based thrust. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 33 buy signals and 52 sell signals. Obviously, a bearish tilt. How is that possible with such a big move in the averages? Monday will be interesting. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. I did not expect to find many buys because the market has already moved for two weeks. I did find one that looked interesting, XXX. To buy XXX or not to buy XXX. That is the question. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I wasn’t finding much that I liked on the short side until I got toward the end of the alphabet. I had just seen a headline in the Wall Street Journal about how great luxury brands were doing, so when XXX showed up in the sell side selections, I gladly added it to the list. I also added XXX, and XXX. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. But the 7 picks that were still open at the end of the month had an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. The month should have been better, but I had those shorts last week, and they hurt us. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We had no stop-outs last week. This week we start with those 7 open picks, of which 4 are buys and 3 are shorts. I have added or adjusted stops on all existing picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I will add 1 buy and 3 shorts to the list.  The picks are shown on the table below (See report). Charts are below that. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question

Wall Street is largely theater, so we need to be able to suspend disbelief if we want to invest and trade successfully.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles- All cycles remain in gear to the upside, but cycle highs are due xxxxxxx xxxxxxx in all cycles up to 13 weeks duration. Cycle projections of xxxx-xx on the 13 week and 6 month cycles, and xxxx on the 4 week cycles have yet to be hit, so an xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx is still possible. But it should be the xxxx xxxxxx for xxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 10-12 month cycle high isn’t due until xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. So we could be in for a lot of xxxxxxxx xxx and xxxx for the next xx xxx months. Unless the market xx xx xxx this week, from a technical perspective the bias should be to the xxxxx for xxxxx months. That’s xxxxxxx xxx the liquidity backdrop. Non subscribers click here to access.

What to do! Non subscribers click here to access.

Hold on to your hats and be nimble.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  The market now faces trend resistance at xxxx. If they clear that, the next trend resistance channel line is indicated around xxxx early in the week, headed for xxxx later in the week. Non subscribers click here to access.

Closing above xxxx would result in a conventional measured move target of xxxx. A daily close below xxxx would be needed to suggest even the possibility of a short term downside reversal. Non subscribers click here to access.

 Long Term Weekly Chart –  The 10-12 month cycle bottom looks xxxx. The market is now entering an area of what should be massive resistance from xxxx to xxxx. 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators have not xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xxxx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The aggregate indicator has formed a negative divergence xxx the strength of the numbers is very xxxx. The last time the indicator made a pattern like this was from xxxxx xxxx- xxxx xxxx. I need not remind you what happened during that period. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Surprise, Surprise – A Few Shorts

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 54 charts with multiple buy signals, and 14 with more than one sell signal. That’s bullish, but doesn’t suggest major thrust. These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. Furthermore, a preponderance of these signals were in fixed income funds and high yield stocks.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s still a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 35 buy signals and 19 sell signals. These are low to middling numbers. While bullish, they do not suggest a broad, powerful rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria expecting to find a few buys. I did. Two to be exact. But I found 3 that had nice setups on the short side. Go figure. All 5 picks are shown in the charts and table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

July has been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market. We managed not to get chewed up by mostly staying away. So far this month only two picks have been closed out for an average loss of 2.6%. The two remaining open picks have an average gain of 3.7%. That compares with 12 closed picks in June for an average gain of 10.1%.

This week we start with 2 open picks, both buys and will add 2 buys and 3 shorts. We had no stop-outs last week.

The picks are shown on the table below. Charts are below that. Because of my late posting today, I will track the new picks with an opening price of their 12 noon New York price.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Gonna Take You Higher, But Not Too Much

Cycles- The bottoming process in the longer intermediate cycles xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx  as short term cycles got in gear to the upside last week. This doesn’t mean that we’re in for a long and winding xxxx xxxxxxxx phase.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

A 4 week cycle high is due xxxx xx to xxxxxx xx, with the projection xxxxxxxxx xxx. However, the 6-8 week and 13 week cycles point to a range of 4xxx-xxxx, with a high due as late as xxxxxx xx. So the market still has a bit xxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxx over the next week. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Beyond that, the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles have xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx. A 6 month cycle high is due xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxxxx, with an initial projection of xxxx. That’s probably not the last word on that. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – If they clear xxxx, the initial targets would be xxxx, and then xxxx. Only if they break those would xxxx be likely as the next target. If they pull back, support is at xxxxx and xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – This chart now suggests but doesn’t confirm a 10-12 month cycle xxxxxxx. Longer term cycle indicators remain bearish. Resistance is suggested around xxxx, and if cleared, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – If they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal but is still above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The numbers were strongly positive all week, even Friday, after the pullback. Last week I said that the intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. With persistently positive numbers for a month now, I’d call it manic. But until the numbers go negative for more than a few days, then the mania will remain in force. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

.Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 13 charts with multiple buy signals, and 35 with more than one sell signal. That’s surprising considering Friday’s strength, but the field of buy signals from earlier in the week was tiny.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 47 buy signals and 21 sell signals. Again, these are relatively low numbers. Just as the sell side edge was too small to get excited about last week, the same is true of the buy side edge this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, so I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. The buy signals all looked like rangebound setups that were only good for a scalp at best. I said, “Skip it.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

The sell side was no better. Most of the charts were too ambiguous to do anything. They still look a few weeks away from good short side setups. So we sit tight this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase

The cycle setup this week is a picture of juxtaposition, with the edge to the bulls. That’s because a hybrid of the two longer cycles seems to be in the bottoming process here. But short term cycles are mixed and opposed to one another. That suggests that the market won’t be able to get out of its own way. xxxx is more likely than a xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.

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Third Rail Channels –   The market is “triangulating.”  XXXX is the critical level. A close above that would open the way for a move to the XXXX area. On the other hand, a close below XXXX on Monday would keep the sharpest downtrend channel intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – A weekly close above XXXX this week would signal a 6 month and possible 10-12 month cycle upturn. The target would then be around XXXX. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached but it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to classical technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. However, a 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phase should xxxxx for a xxxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxxx lasting into xxxxxxxxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxxr.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting just above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The short term pattern is xxxxxxx. The intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. I’m a liquidity analyst, not a shrink. I won’t try to make sense of it. However, a couple of the moving average indicators for these measures are now at pivotal points on their charts. If this morning’s market xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If this rally is a bottle rocket and the market ends lower through Tuesday, the xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx . Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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