4000 is not only a nice round number, but it coincides with technical levels and indications that will tell us in the next few days whether the rally is finished, or whether the bear market is finished.
I’ve made clear that I think that all the speculation about easier Fed policy ahead as the basis for a bull market will prove not only fruitless, but counterproductive. However, I will respect the technical verdict of the market. The judge has sent the jury out to deliberate.
Cycles– Short term cycles entered flat down phases last week, as was due. The 13 week cycle is overdue for a high, with the projection now xxxx. The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between xxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx. Cycle projections now point mostly to xxxxxxx, with the upper range of xxxxx on the 10-12 month cycle only possible if the short term pullback that is due is shallow. Non subscribers click here to access.
Third Rail – Short term uptrend channels remain intact. The key trendline to watch runs from xxxx to xxxx this week. Bears need to break that line to get anything going on the downside. To begin a more significant reversal, they would need a close below a second trendline that ends the week around xxxx. If that remains intact, then the uptrend remains in force. Non subscribers click here to access.
Friday’s close put the S&P 500 just above a long term downtrend line at xxxx. If it stays above this line this week, it would call the bear market into question. Non subscribers click here to access.
Long Term Weekly Chart – 11/14/22 The rally has confirmed a 6 month cycle up phase. There’s a slim chance of a top here if they hold the line at xxxx this week and drive the market lower on the week. Otherwise, there’s running room to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
There are no long term buy signals yet. But that could happen if the rally extends to the xxx area and consolidates there. Non subscribers click here to access.
Monthly Chart – 11/14/22 The upper boundary of the downtrend channel is around xxxx in November. Ending the month above that would suggest a new intermediate uptrend. Closing below that would reconfirm the downtrend. Non subscribers click here to access.
10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. We need to keep an eye on this. It’s an important key as to whether this is still a bear market or not. Non subscribers click here to access.
Cycle Screening Measures – These measures remained in solidly positive territory. However, a negative divergence developed with the market averages. A couple of market down days this week would break the uptrend in this indicator that began over two months ago. However, early week strength would reconfirm the rally, and would also lead to a break in the bear market trend. An extension of the rally this week would also break the longer term bearish trend in the cumulative cycles measure. This is another indicator that we need to watch closely to show whether this is still a bear market, or a new bull market. Non subscribers click here to access.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.