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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

When Hope Is Not a Good Thing

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I would call today’s big picture cycle screening data for the mining stocks an unqualified disaster, were it not for the fact that the two longer time frames barely dropped below neutral. Moreover, the short term numbers reached a deep sell side extreme. So all is not lost yet. But another down week would crush any hopes of a near term rebound.

When all feels hopeless is usually when a bottom arrives. Right now feels semi hopeless. Maybe not a good thing.

Today’s mining stocks short term swing trade screen yielded 7 buy signals and 7 sell signals, with 38 stocks rendering no new signals. It’s not a recipe for a trouncing, but also not one that inspires confidence. I looked at the charts of the 7 buy signals and the setups promised no more than a dead cat bounce. So I let the dead cats lie.

The last 3 of the picks from August 24 got stopped out last week. The 3 new picks were all losers on the week, but the charts are not broken. At least not yet. There’s still still a reasonable chance of a rebound. I have added stops to those, just below support levels. The table and charts are in the subscriber version.

As for the metal itself, it looks set up for a little bounce here that should carry back to xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version). Then we’ll see. If they hang around up there, it would be a good sign that the worst is over. An immediate rollover would not be.

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Constructive Signs for Gold Digging

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The cycle picture is hazy. The table at left (subscriber version) is my best guess. A short term low is due, but at a lower projection. The would-be 13-17 week cycle up phase has gone nowhere, despite a new projection that points higher. If it doesn’t get out of this range soon, it would suggest the possibility of a wicked down phase ahead. If the price holds above the May-August downtrend line as shown on this chart (subscriber version), that would be constructive

HUI gold stock index has been rangebound at the lows for the past month. It still needs to clear xxx (subscriber version) to complete an intermediate term bottom. If successful, it would indicate a new 6 month cycle up phase. The measuring implication would be around xxx (subscriber version).

In the cycle screens of the mining stocks, short term cycles got crushed but the two longer time frames held up ok over the past week. That suggests a pullback in a longer up phase. It tells us to stay the course for now with any longs that haven’t been stopped out, and keep an eye out for new entries.

In the chart picks screen, today’s screen yielded 20 buy signals. There were 4 sell signals. This is a nice balance from a bullish perspective. Last week there were 43 sell signals which was a red flag, but as I wrote then, “The intermediate trend structures still hold the prospect of further gains.” Ditto this week. On reviewing the charts of the stocks with buy signals, I found a few that I liked and will add to the list as buys as of today’s opening print. They are XX, XXX, and XXX. See charts below (subscriber version).

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Gold’s Setup Has All Kinds of Potential

This report tells what the potential is, and how to spot its likely attainment.

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Here’s What Happens When Gold’s Cycles Are at Cross Purposes

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It’s decision time for this rally as gold rests in the downtrend area around 1810. The 6-7 week cycle projection is xxxx (subscriber version only), but they would need to push through resistance around xxxx (subscriber version). Cycles remain at cross purposes, which is conducive to xxxxxxxxxxxxx (subscriber version) .

HUI needs to clear xxx (subscriber version)  to complete an intermediate term bottom. If successful, the measuring implication would be around xxx.

Today’s screen yielded only 1 short term buy signal. Yesterday’s downtick began triggering sells with 6 of the 52 stocks in the screen flipping sell side switches. The intermediate trend structures still hold the prospect of a near term upturn. So I’ll stick with the 5 charts on the list (subscriber version), but won’t add any new ones today.

This report includes the cycle projections for short to long term time frames, and swing trade mining picks. Get ready for the big move now!

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This Could Be the Start of Something Big for Gold

Gold is on the cusp of signaling a possible intermediate cycle low. A daily close above the trendlines at xxxx (subscribers only) would be a good start to confirming that. Short term cycles are in up phases, with a new projection of xxxx (subscribers only). That suggests that something bigger is afoot. But a failure to clear xxxx would be a warning sign that the down phases in the 9-12 month and 13 week cycles are not yet complete.

This report includes the cycle projections for short to long term time frames, and 4 new swing trade mining picks to add to the one already on the list. Get ready for the big move now!

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Gold’s Rebound Increases the Risk

It’s too soon to tell if this is repair or consolidation, but the risks are high, and the downside targets remain in place for now. We still have one mining pick in hand. It isn’t barking but isn’t rolling over. It’s the best chart of a bad class.

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Gold is Facing the Kiss of Death

The scary part of this week is the premature failure of the 13 week cycle up phase. It confirms the down phases in bigger cycles and sets up a kiss of death. This report shows how, along with price and time targets for the short, intermediate, and longer term.

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Gold, Chicken or Egg

Cycle juxtaposition expresses as range or does the range cause the juxtaposition. This report gives the parameters that will signal change. Meanwhile, there’s still that one lonely mining pick.

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Be Careful of that Yellow Stuff

Gold remains at risk despite a positive sign in the miners yesterday.

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Gold’s Elevated Cyclical Risk Is Right Now

Gold has been rangebound and mining stocks have looked terrible. Both are entering periods of elevated risk.

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