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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Reason to Stay Optimistic on Gold

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The 13 week cycle up phase aborted early and the pullback has negated the base breakout. When that happens there’s usually a recovery before a second high that confirms the top. I want to remain optimistic that this will only result in a mild correction/consolidation. As long as the 10-12 month cycle indicators continue to signal an up phase, that’s where I’ll give the benefit of the doubt.

Here’s what the current up to the minute charts say about that (subscriber version).

The HUI mining stock index 6 month cycle is probably topping out. But with the 10-12 month cycle due to stay in an up phase for at least 12 more weeks, I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to the 6 month cycle down phase playing as a consolidation, rather than deep decline. The parameters to watch on that are here. (subscriber version).

Today, there are 2 buys and 13 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This followed 2 buys and 6 sells last week, on the heels of a flood of buy signals the week before. That suggested the possible onset of a new upleg.  Now we’re in a correction.

Could it be something worse? Maybe, so I’m putting stops on all picks, but with a little wiggle room to allow for a little more dipping and then hopefully recovery. I’ll see on the recovery if it’s too weak, and close out picks where the charts call for it. But for now, I want to give them time to allow for recovery.

Current open picks got crushed with the sector as a whole, ending the week with an average gain of just 14.1% on an average holding period of 41 calendar days. That was down from an average gain of  21% with an average holding period of 34 calendar days.

I didn’t see any charts I wanted to add this week. I will stick with existing picks, with stops added as shown on the table.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Breaks Out, Sets New Targets, Miners Move

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Gold has broken out of a 5 month base, with a measuring implication of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version). There’s resistance at xxxx but cycle projections now point to the xxxx-xxx range.

The HUI mining stock index has broken out of a reverse head and shoulders bottom. The upsloping neckline results in a measured move target of xxxx (subscriber version). There’s not enough data for a 10-12 month cycle projection yet, but if these gains stick, the implied projection would be at least xxxx-xxx .

Today, there are 2 buys and 6 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This followed a flood of buy signals the week before. That suggested the possible onset of a new upleg.  Now we’re in the momentum follow-through stage after the initial surge of buy signals.

Current open picks and one that was sold last week, had an average gain of +21% with an average holding period of 34 calendar days. That compared with +16.3% and an average holding period of 37 calendar days the week before.

I didn’t see any charts I wanted to add this week. I will stick with the ones that “brung us,” with no stops. I’ll close them out of the list when their charts turn less favorable. For now, I give the benefit of the doubt to the upside.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Cycle Projections Hold Good News

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There’s a lot of good news in the cycle projections table (subscriber version). Cycles are in gear to the upside and projections point higher. Now those projections just need to come to fruition. A breakout through xxxx (subscriber version)  should get the ball rolling uphill. Failure to do so within the next couple of weeks would not be good.

Gold made a little progress over the past week but it still needs to clear xxxx (subscriber version) to break out of the trading range. That would essentially end the risk that this year-long consolidation would break down and lead to another downleg in a bear market. Until that upside breakout, the outlook would continue to hold that risk.

On the long term chart of the gold stock index, the neckline of a potential reverse head and shoulders bottom is now at xxxx (subscriber version). Clearing that would be bullish. Failing, and subsequently falling back under xxxx (subscriber version), would be bearish.

Today, there are 24 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a big departure from the small numbers of signals in recent weeks, suggesting the possible onset of a new upleg. I expected to see some charts with good setups but I found only two that I liked enough to add to the list, xxxx  and xxxx (subscriber version). The rest were still below big resistance.

Current open picks and one that was stopped out last week, had an average gain of 16.3% and an average holding period of 37 calendar days.  I will drop (xxxx) as of the opening price on Tuesday and track the two new picks also as of the opening price on Tuesday.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Is in Perfect Equilibrium AND Maximum Uncertainty

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Short term cycles are due for pullbacks or consolidations while the 13-17 week cycle remains in an up phase. Its projection has risen slightly to xxxx (subscriber version). Unfortunately however, the 9-12 month cycle indicators are weakening again, which doesn’t bode well for this up phase. The uncertainty will persist for as long as gold remains locked in the xxxx-xxxx range(subscriber version).

The depth of last week’s pullback leaves the strength of the 6 month cycle up phase in the mining stock index in doubt. The chart shows the parameters we need to watch (subscriber version)..

Today, there are 7 buys and 1 sell from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is an uptick after 3 weeks of more short term sell than buy signals, but it’s not broad enough to signal a new upleg.

Current open picks have an average gain of 14.2% and an average holding period of 32 calendar days. I plan on letting these ride through the consolidation phase with the exception of xxxx, which has broken signal lines in the wake of xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version).. . I’ll let it ride as long as it stays above the stop, but if the stop is hit, I’ll remove it.

None of the new buy signals were compelling, therefore no new picks this week.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Report Glitch

I don’t know if this issue is affecting all subscribers, but I did hear from one of you that it is, and I found that it’s also affecting me, as I attempt to download the latest Gold Trader report. I have a temporary workaround. Just right click on this link to the report and select open link in new tab (or window). That will open the login screen and you can open as usual. If you are a new subscriber, just type your user name and password, and click enter and the file should open. If it does not, email me from the support form and I’ll send you the file directly.

Sorry for the inconvenience! I’m working on getting this fixed ASAP.

Lee

Gold Sets Up for Eventual Breakout

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The 13-17 week cycle now has a projection of xxxx (subscriber version), suggesting that xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx (subscriber version) . Both the 9-12 month and 15 month cycle indicators are now constructive for a breakout when xxxx xxxx xxxx.

The mining stock index HUI has broken out of an intermediate term base with a measured move target of xxx (subscriber version). Cycle projections don’t point that high yet, but there’s plenty of time in the 6 month cycle up phase for it to happen. Likewise, the 10-12 month cycle seems to have turned up.  

Today, there are 4 buys and 5 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This is a consolidation phase after 26 buy signals and just 3 sell signal three weeks ago. Current open picks have an average gain of 18.5% and an average holding period of 25 calendar days.   I will let these picks ride without stops again this week. None of the new buy signals were compelling, therefore no new picks this week.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report. 

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Gold Lines Up Potential Bottom

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Gold shows signs of bottoming, but there’s a key parameter that must be met. Short term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx. (subscriber version).

Meanwhile our mining stock swing trade pick list posted a solid performance last week, and shows good potential for more gains. But we need to allow for pullbacks as they build bases. See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Gold Stuck in the Middle While Miners Look Promising

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Gold has been in suspended animation for the past two weeks. Cycle indications are conflicting and motionless. The signal for the next move, even a small one, would be a breakout from the current range of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version).

Meanwhile our mining stock swing trade pick list perked up last week, and shows good potential for more gains. But we need to allow for pullbacks as they build bases. See table and charts (subscriber version).

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Five Mining Picks to Swing

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Short term cycles in the metal are in up phases, but they’d better get more traction or it could mean more trouble ahead. There’s no confirmation of an upturn in longer cycles yet.

But the screens of the mining stocks offered more positive signs, and I picked 5 charts to put on our swing trade chart pick list this week (subscriber version).

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A Few Good Signs from the Gold Miners, But Not the Metal

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Gold is at a critical level, testing trend support at xxxx (subscriber version). Updated cycle projections now point to a low of xxxx-xx, with the time window xxxx (subscriber version). The 9-12 month cycle is still in a flat down phase, but it could get much worse if it breaks xxxx (subscriber version).

The Mining Stocks Index (HUI) 9-12 month cycle momentum has reached the level of past lows since 2017 as HUI ticked the bottom of its major downtrend channel. Failure to hold here would be bearish, with the next target xxx-xxx. Conversely an uptick here would be bullish (subscriber version).

Today’s swing trade screen was unqualified good news for the short term outlook. It yielded 25 buy signals and just 1 sell signal, with 26 stocks rendering no new signals. Since there now seems to be a prospect of some recovery, I chose two of the 25 buys to add to the list this week, shown below (subscriber version).

I have included failsafe stoploss prices for those, and adjusted the stop for one of the existing picks.

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