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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Mildly Bullish Outlook for Gold Holds

Still not enough evidence to overturn my bottom call from two weeks ago. Holding 4 miner longs as swing trades.

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Over the past week the sector generated 3 charts with repeat buy signals and 21 with repeat sell signals. Not a good sign, but these are short term signals. This follows a preponderance of buy signals for the past 4 weeks. Therefore, for now, I consider it a normal corrective phase. And Friday alone had a much better look with 12 buys and only 2 sells. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Upon visual review, I did not like any of the 3 stocks that were buys, so I stood pat on the 4 picks already on the list. All held gains, with an average gain of 14.9% on an average holding period of 3 weeks.  I adjusted the stops to trailing stops. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Averages assume 100% cash, no margin, no options. The use of margin or options will magnify both gains and losses. See disclaimer below the charts. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands

There’s not enough evidence for the umpires to overturn last week’s call on the field, but neither was there enough to confirm. Therefore the call stands.

Until it doesn’t. Meanwhile, gold is making progress toward completing a 9-12 month cycle low. There’s still risk of a pullback toward a test of the lows over the next xxxx xxxxx  xxxxx or so. On the other hand clearing xxxx should get things rolling toward xxxx.

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Over the past week the mining stock sector generated 23 charts with repeat buy signals and still 18 with repeat sell signals. The mining stocks lagged the sharp turn in the metal. But there has been a preponderance of buy signals for the past 3 weeks, so some reduction in buy signals and increase in sell signals is to be expected. The fact that there’s still a preponderance of buy signals is a positive sign. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Upon visual review, I selected just one chart to add to the list. xxx. I’m not enamored with the idea of buying stocks that are still in downtrends, even if there are hints of reversal. For now, I’m only comfortable with the level of exposure we already have on this list. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Gold Has Made a Bottom

The price has broken out of a tight 3 week reverse head and shoulders. The implied measured move target is only xxxx. Cyclicality would be favorable for an additional advance from there, after consolidation. This outlook is not carved in stone. There’s still a risk of a lower low on the 9-12 month cycle. To confirm the bullish view, the price needs to be above xxxx by the second half of August.

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Over the past week the mining stock sector generated 14 charts with repeat buy signals and just 3 with repeat sell signals. That’s a good performance, especially after the previous week when there was also a preponderance of buy signals. It’s not an across the board thrust, but we’ll take what we can get. This is the first sign of a bottom, so signs of tentativeness are to be expected.

Upon visual review, I selected two charts to add to the list this week, XXX and XXX.

The two picks added last week are up an average of 3%.

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Catch a Falling Knife

Gold’s short term cycles have entered up phases but they haven’t shown anything so far and aren’t likely to. The longer swing cycles have yet to indicate that they’ve bottomed, and they still have lower projections. There’s still risk that they’ll be reached over the next month or two.

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Over the past week the mining sector generated 19 charts with a second or third buy signal on Monday, and no multiple sell signals. Sounds good, right? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Uhh…. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This market reminds me of the old Perry Como song. “Catch a falling knife and put it in your pocket. Never let it stab your leg.” Bottom picking for counter trend rallies in bear markets is not my favorite pastime. But given that any bottom could lead to a big rally, I will put one big toe in the water, and steel myself for its amputation. So, from my bottom picking perspective, I’ll go with XXX, tracking it as of the opening price on Tuesday. And, what the hell, XXX has room to pop, with nice positive divergences in the indicators, so I’ll add that as well. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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More Bad News Ahead for the Golden Boys

The 6-7 week cycle low is overdue and the 4 week cycle low was due yesterday, but everything else says there’s more bad news ahead.

The mining stocks look no better. For the past week, there were just 2 charts with final buy signals after earlier ones, and 4 with  a final sell after earlier sell signals. Those low numbers suggest no thrust, but the downtrend is well established. In the week before there were 22 with multiple sell signals.  Here’s what I’m doing now.

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Gold’s Worst Projections Are Happening

Last week’s warning signs came to fruition. Here’s how much worse it’s likely to get. Once that happens, it should be a good buying opportunity.

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For the past week, there were 8 charts with multiple buy signals. There are 22 with multiple sell signals. The 8 buy signals were mostly on Friday, and they got soundly reversed on Tuesday, when there were just 3 buys and 22 sells.

The patterns look desperate. Is it a capitulation? Too soon to say, but I’m staying away, for now.

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Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook

This doesn’t look good.

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Our entry into last week’s 3 mining picks did not go well. They’re all down a little and are threatening to break support. Consequently, I’ve added stops just below those support levels.

If they hold above that, there’s still a good chance of a rally, but if they break, we’ll take our lumps and come back to fight another day. Once or twice a year we see playable profitable rallies, but we never know where and when they’ll emerge. It requires dipping toes in the water whenever the potential appears. Sometimes it plays out and sometimes it doesn’t in this most frustrating of market sectors.

For the week, there were 22 charts with multiple buy signals. There are 13 with multiple sell signals.  But, on Tuesday alone, there were just 2 buys, and 18 sells. It’s not a picture that xxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

After reviewing the 22 charts with multiple buys, virtually all performed poorly on Tuesday, and none looked any more promising than the 3 picks already on the list. And like the 3 existing picks, all were in position for possible breakdowns. So there are no new picks this week. Wait till next week. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Is There Life on Mars, or in the Precious Metals?

Gold remains in a state cycle juxtaposition. Cycles facing opposite directions with none having thrust result in trading ranges. We were expecting this, but it’s still surprising. While a breakdown below xxxx would imply a target in the mid xxxx range there’s no sign that that outcome is imminent. But there’s a xxxxx that the longer swing cycles could xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx in the July-August window.  X xxxxx breakout xxxxx xxxx would be needed to xxxx the likelihood of that happening.

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Last week’s performance among the mining stocks was again underwhelming but it did produce a couple of charts of interest that will be added to the chart pick list as of Wednesday’s opening price. They are xxx, xxx, and xxx. Charts below (in the report).

For the week, there were only 7 charts with multiple buy signals including one in the past 2 trading days. There are 15 with multiple sells including one in the past two trading days. So overall that doesn’t inspire confidence that the sector is ready to move. But, on Tuesday alone, as the whole market rallied, the precious metals sector saw 29 buy signals and only one sell signal. If there are more buy signals this week, the pick list should grow.

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Gold Stares Into the Abyss and Doesn’t Like What It Sees

Gold is now working on a test of the low. Obviously, it needs to hold, otherwise, this could get a lot worse over the next few months. For example, a breakdown below xxxx would imply a target in the mid xxxx range.

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The screens for short term swing trades were again terrible over the past week. Unlike the above screens, which evaluate current cycle status, these screens look only for new signals indicating a change of short term trend. Looking back over the past week, there were only 3 charts that made the cut on the buy side. Conversely, there were 15 Sells. That’s not a good ratio, although not as bad as the previous week when the score was 3 buys to 35 on the sell side.

The last step in the process is to eyeball the charts on the buy side. One of the 3 was a penny stock. I’m not interested. One of the other two (xxx) was a falling knife setup at support. Sorry, no interest. The other (xxxx) might be a base. Might not. It isn’t a terrible setup, but wasn’t solid enough to entice me in this environment.

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Like Pulling Gold Teeth

The trading range goes on and on, but our two mining picks are doing ok.

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