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Category: 3 – Gold Trader

Weekly update of precious metals stocks and ETFs and the price of gold itself, featuring Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis, with market trend opinions and stock picks. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Good News On Gold

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The good news is that cycle projections are rising and all point higher. There are also some promising  picks among the miners. We’ve had 3 on the list already, and they’ve been moving up.

See, analysis, table of picks and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Publication Schedule Note

I have unfortunately gotten a few days behind schedule on publication this week. I am currently working on a Primary Dealer update which I’ll post tomorrow, at least in part. I will post the Gold Trader update on Wednesday instead of the usual Tuesday.

This week, I’m in the process of getting ready to end my extended stay in Warsaw, to finally realize my long term plan to move to Nice, France next next Monday. That has involved finding a place to stay temporarily. I intend to settle there after these two years of moving around Europe. So I’m also looking for a place to buy once I get there. All of the preparations for the move have been time consuming.

As an aside, if you ever want to come to the South of France, I know it fairly well, particularly Nice and its immediate environs. I would be happy to chat with you about it, and would love to meet if we have the opportunity. You can reach me by the contact form on the support page.

Meanwhile, I’m also in the process of selling my home in Florida. I’m personally managing that remotely. That’s also setting me back time wise.

The last time I sold a house in Florida, I top-ticked the market for my house type in my neighborhood in mid 2005. Hopefully, I’ll be as lucky this time. Last time I sold, I did so directly without an agent. Today, with Zillow, the commissioned sales agent becomes mostly unnecessary. With online selling so prevalent today, and someone available to let prospective buyers in, it’s well worth it to have buyers contact me via a website.

The downside is that getting the information out, and taking calls has interrupted my workflow, which is frustrating because I want to give you consistent, high quality service. So I do apologize for being a few days later than usual in getting these reports out to you. I’ll do my best to stay as close to the regular schedule as I can during these transition weeks.

And I’ll try to make up for what I can’t do in quantity, by increasing the quality!  😁

As always, thanks for your patience and support!

Lee

Gold Positioned To Pop

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Gold There are signs of cycles getting in gear to the upside, but no sign of thrust yet. Initial upside projections point to xxxx – xxxx (in subscriber version).  Gold needs to clear xxxx to break the 13 week cycle MA and signal at least a little more upside in the short run.

On the very long term monthly chart, gold remains above a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx range (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI has broken its 6 month cycle MA. Here’s what that implies for the outlook (in subscriber version)..

On the ultra long term monthly chart, HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. With HUI ending December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target is xxxxxxxx in the first quarter of 2022. It faces major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – The numbers surged over the past week but 6 month cycles remained deeply negative. That needs to show much more improvement for us to have confidence that there will be an extended rally. But this is a start. So I’m continuing to nibble.

I’ve tweaked the method to use screens from each day of the past week instead of just the last day of the weekly period. Charts that show up more than once, with buy signals yesterday are preferred. From that list I pick those with structures I like. This week I’m adding one to the list as shown below.  I’m staying with the existing picks, and allowing breathing room with no, or very loose stops. Currently open picks show an average gain of 9.4% on an average holding period of 3 weeks.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

What the Signs of Emerging Gold Would Be

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Gold Cycles remain mixed with still no sign of an imminent breakout from the trading range. Here are the levels to watch.for signs of emergence (in subscriber version).

On the very long term monthly chart, gold remains above a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx range (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI has broken its 6 month cycle MA. Here’s what that implies for the outlook (in subscriber version)..

On the ultra long term monthly chart, HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. With HUI ending December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target is xxxxxxxx in the first quarter of 2022. It faces major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – Short term screens for chart pick purposes did a little better. They’re more sensitive, more oriented toward swing trade timing than the longer cycle screens which have done so poorly. 12 of the 51 charts screened had signals, and 11 were on the buy side. I liked one of them enough to add to the list as shown on the table.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

When Boring Isn’t Bullish – Gold

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Gold Boring trading ranges are often long term bullish. But this is gold. Cycles remain mixed with still no sign of an imminent breakout from the trading range. Short term, the most likely direction is xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).

On the very long term monthly chart, gold nears the end of December at a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI is holding precariously at the 6 month cycle MA. xxxx xx xxxxx are the parameters to watch this week for signs of big trouble.

On the ultra long term monthly chart HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. If HUI ends December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target could be xxxxxxxx in the first quarter of 2022. Even if above xxxx, it would still face major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – Two weeks ago, we added 3 picks to the list, and they’ve done ok as shown in the table below.

Today, there were 4 buys and 31 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Monday’s action. The rest had no signal. The big edge to the sell side isn’t a good sign. Even the 4 charts with buy signals weren’t inspiring. So I added no new picks.

Because of the weakness in the screening data and the fact that most stocks remain in longer term downtrends. I’ve added tight stops to the existing picks.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Holiday Wishes and Publication Schedule

I want to wish you and your family Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy Holidays, and Happy Festivus, the holiday for the rest of us.

I will celebrate by looking around Warsaw for an open Chinese restaurant where I can get takeout. I won’t be eating in this year (I wonder why).

Today at Malbork Castle, Malbork, Poland
Today at Malbork Castle, Malbork, Poland 12/22/21 

I want to thank you especially for allowing me the privilege of doing this work that I love, for you for the past 21 years. Whether you’ve been a subscriber for the past 21 days, but especially if you’ve been around for most or all of those years, your interest and confidence in me is a gift that I always appreciate! I hope that you enjoy and learn nearly as much from my reporting as I do from doing it.

I know that you will probably be enjoying the coming days with your families and hopefully not paying much attention to the markets. I’ll use that opportunity to take a break myself over this week. There will be no Liquidity Trader, Technical Trader, or Gold Trader posts between now and New Years weekend. Regular publication will resume in the New Year, with a bevy of reports. So be sure to stay tuned for that.

If anything strikes me as noteworthy over the coming week, I’ll throw up some quick comments on the Capitalstool message board and in my Twitter feed.

So to you and yours, Happy Holidays! See you in the New Year!

Lee

PS. I apologize for the fact that if you subscribe to more than one of the services, you have gotten this email once for each of them.  Sorry for clogging the inbox! 😁

Gold Shows Every Sign of Doing This Now (and Forever)

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Gold shows all the signs of going nowhere fast. Cycles are juxtaposed and the price is locked in a tight range. The 13 week cycle is due for an upturn in the next xxxx (in subscriber version), which would be conducive to a run to at least xxxx, but it would need to clear xxxx to get a real bull move started.. A breakdown below xxxx would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around xxxx.

On the very long term monthly chart, gold nears the end of December at a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx (in subscriber version).

HUI – The 13 week cycle appears to have joined shorter cycles in an up phase. It’s ideally due to last 6-10 weeks but is due to remain flat. There’s no sign yet that longer cycles will turn xxxx (in subscriber version), .  On the long term weekly chart HUI is holding precariously at the 6 month cycle MA.

On the ultra long term monthly chart HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. If HUI ends December below xxxx (in subscriber version). The target could be xxxxxxxx in the first quarter of 2022. Even if above xxxx, it would still face major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – There are 11 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. The rest had no signal. I looked at the charts, and, in a change from recent weeks, there were 3 charts where I liked the setups. I’ll start tracking them as buys as of this morning’s open.

New Buys: xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, (in subscriber version).

There were no open picks over the last week as the last one had been stopped out. Picks closed out over the past month had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Gold Trader Publication Schedule Note December 21, 2021

This report will be posted on Wednesday morning, December 22, instead of Tuesday this week. I’m  traveling today.

See you Wednesday! And if I don’t see you before, Merry Christmas and happy holidays! Thanks for your support!

Lee

Gold Hangs By a Thread on the Eve of Destruction

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Weak short term cycle up phases are in danger of early breakdowns  The 13 week cycle is due to remain in a down phase for xxxx (in subscriber version), with a projection of xxxx (in subscriber version). A breakdown below xxxx  would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around 1650.

Gold begins December below a couple of key trendlines on the monthly chart. It would need to end the month comfortably above xxxx to reduce the risk of another slide that could carry into the xxxxx. Conversely, if it ends the month above xxxx, that would be a bullish sign.

As for the mining stocks, The short cycle up phase is in danger of an early breakdown, as the 13 week cycle down phase targets xxxx – xxx (in subscriber version).

There are 13 buys and 3 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. The rest had no signal. I looked at the charts, and, once again, these buy signals did not impress me as anything more than a dead cat bounce that would probably fizzle out. I decided to wait for better setups before re-entering. This may require some patience.

The last remaining pick from the most recent group hit its stop over the past week and was closed as of the stop price with a loss of 4.4%. Previous picks closed out over the past month had an average gain of 13.4% on an average holding period of  48 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Reason for Hopeful Pessimism on Gold

It’s not great, but there are benchmarks that would signal that this pattern may be turning bullish.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Short term cycles have turned up. The 4 week cycle projection is a nice target, but there are no guarantees here. It would certainly be helpful to the bigger picture if it is reached. The 13 week cycle still has some vulnerability for 3-6 more weeks. A breakdown below xxxx (in subscriber version) would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around xxxx.

Gold begins December below a couple of key trendlines on the monthly chart. It would need to end the month comfortably above xxxx to reduce the risk of another slide that could carry into the xxxxx. Conversely, if it ends the month above xxxx, that would be a bullish sign.

As for the mining stocks, the shortest cycles rebounded due to the rally of the past 2 days, but that wasn’t enough to keep the 6 month cycles from falling to the sell side. 13 week cycles remained at more than 90% on the sell side. With 6 month cycles now negative and not yet extreme, any bounce xxxx xxx xxxxx xx xxxxxxxx (in subscriber version).

There are 34 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. I looked at the charts, and these buy signals did not impress me as anything more than a dead cat bounce that would probably fizzle out. I decided to wait for better setups before re-entering after closing all but one of the picks that had been on the list in previous weeks.

The 7 picks closed out from November 2 through December 2 had an average gain of 9.9% with an average holding period of 43 calendar days. Not bad considering how uneven the performance of the sector has been.

1 pick hit its stop over the past week and was closed as of the stop price with a gain of 23.4%. That left just one pick on the list, hanging on with a loss of 1.2%. I’ve tightened the stop on that one.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

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