Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Headline Corrected

The market pulled back to the bottom of projected cycle channels last week. A decline would signal that those channels are beginning to turn lower, although not necessarily down in absolute terms. There would be a basis for xxxxxx xxxxxx on swing trades.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On the other hand, if the market firms up from here, then there would be room to run to xxxx or higher over the next xx-xx weeks. That would be a setup for picking up long positions for a trade.   Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

There’s no sign of meaningful downside from the cycle picture, even though a late 6-month cycle down phase remains a possibility. Here’s what to look for next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 10-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxx xxx. A down phase hasn’t materialized. While there’s still time, it may not, due to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in April.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – . The SPX could be making a double top, but Thursday’s high exceeded the earlier high by a hair. If they’re going to top out, they usually miss by a hair. The odds favor xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If they take out the high, there’s immédiate clearance to xxxx, rising to xxxx at the end of the week.   Non subscribers click here to access.

There are a couple of trend support lines at xxxx-xxxx on Monday which would need to be broken for a pullback to happen. The first support area is at xxxx. Only if that’s broken would we get the beginnings of a bigger top pattern.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – 3/24/24 An updated 3-4 year cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due in 2025.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – A strong March turned long-term momentum to the buy side, signaling a likely 7-year cycle up phase. The top of the uptrend channel is around xxxx in April. If cleared, the next trend resistance and target would be roughly xxxx. The upper channel line would become support. For now, xxxx is support.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

March has been a good month so far. The average gain for picks closed out this month, and those still open as of March 23, was 16.3% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days.  Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

In lieu of my visual review of dozens, if not more than 100, charts generated by the raw data from the screens, I have developed an algorithm overlay that will now make the (almost) final selections. My judgement wasn’t that good anyway.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

This method is mechanical and non-judgmental. However, I still review the reduced output for any charts that are generating signals from already extended trends. They probably have more to run, but when they turn, those turns could be fast and violent. This is a risk to be avoided given the weekly publication interval. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

That weekly interval keeps things simple for both of us, a goal to be desired but not often attained. In this case, the method is complicated, and takes place behind the scenes. The goal is that the output should be simple to follow. While I post a table with specific signal indications, I also post the charts of the new buy and sell short picks are posted so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output of buy and sell triggers in several time frames. The second filters those for intermediate trend. Previously, I reviewed that output visually. I now apply a third filter instead. It’s a filter of short-term signal triggers as of the day before publication. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

This week’s screens generated 24 charts on the buy side and 91 on the sell side on the first pass. On the second pass there were still 24 on the buy side 87 on the sell side. In the screen of final short-term triggers on Friday, there were 3 buys to 7 sells. I excluded charts that were extended in their trends. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into the week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. 3 longs and 2 shorts hit their stops during the week leaving 1 short and 5 longs at Friday’s close. I am adding 3 short sales and 2 buys to the list assuming a half position at the opening price and half at the closing price. That means that the list will start the week with 7 longs and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I have adjusted trailing stops for all existing picks. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

List performance was surprisingly stable from the week before given that the previous week was already at a record level for this exercise. The average gain was 13.8% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. That compares with an average gain of 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days in the previous week. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

This week’s swing trade screens generated 23 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 31 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I’ve developed an additional algo to take the place of visual review for weeding out chart patterns that are not attractive low risk entries here. The net result after that overlay left just 6 charts on the buy side and 13 on the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

These are very small numbers so I won’t draw any broad market conclusions from that. However, the fact that the numbers are small confirms what we already sensed. This advance is elderly, and is therefore prone to loss of balance and falls. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into the week with 13 open picks, including 10 longs and 3 shorts. Two picks were stopped out and I have no new additions this week. We’ll thus go into the next week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Performance was adversely affected this week by one stock that crashed after having been one of the best performers. This is part of the game, and a drawback of only doing this exercise once a week as opposed to daily. On the other hand, a weekly period has the advantage of avoiding overtrading. There’s no perfect time frame, but doing it weekly allows the trader time to live life rather than staying glued to a trading screen every day. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

The culprit in this case was xxx which surprised traders on a revenue “miss” and a weak forecast. It had been uptrending beautifully. Then there were technical warning signs earlier in the week, but unless I go to a daily schedule, which is not on my horizon, then we have to roll with it when sheet happens. That’s the reason why I like to have enough picks to spread risk, so that if one goes really bad, it’s not a killer. And this wasn’t, given that the list still had a record average gain. Voila! The more the merrier. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

By the way, a stop would not have helped since the price opened on a huge gap down, well below any reasonable stop level I may have guessed at. I’ve now indicated a stop just below major trend support. If the uptrend holds, I’ll let this ride, week to week. If not, bye-bye. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I’ve also indicated stops on all but one of the other picks for the purpose of taking profits. Virtually all of these picks are ready to “age out.” Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I reviewed the charts produced by the screens after the application of the new test for suitable setups. I did not like the patterns on either the buy side or the sell side. Even after applying the new filter, there was still nothing that I would consider a low risk, high reward entry setup. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

On the sell side, most were in uptrends, and while they may have peaked, they will be bouncy on the way down as they hit trend support. Again, not ideal entries. I’ll look for sell signals on the rebounds to lower highs for better shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Swing trade screens generated 32 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 28 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Thursday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance improved from the week before. The average gain was 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. It compared with an average gain of 7.4% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days, the previous week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list’s current performance has reached a level where it has maxed out in the past, suggesting some drawdown ahead. But there’s only one outright sell signal. I’m adding a tight stop to that chart. See table below for all particulars. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This morning, I reviewed all of the charts produced by the screens. Here’s what I came up with for the week ahead. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!