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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Technical Signs Say Doubt This Rally

Friday’s rally felt impressive on top of last week’s backing and filling. But the technical indicators haven’t kept up. That could all change on Monday, but as of Friday’s close, there were still plenty of reasons for skepticism.

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Cycles-  The expected 13 week cycle up phase is xxxx xxxxx . But it’s not yet clear if it will have enough momo to xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 6 month cycle down phase. Monday’s action could go a long way toward answering that question.  The 6 month cycle projection has dropped to xxxx. I’ll respect the projection until the market clears resistance at xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail   A new uptrend channel centerline rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. They’d need to at least break that to signal an end to this phase of the rally. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a trend resistance convergence around xxxx. If cleared, they’d have running room for an immediate move to xxxx. If not cleared, then keep an eye on the downtrend line that drops from xxxx to xxxx this week. Likewise, dropping below xxxx would suggest a fast move to at least xxxx, and if that breaks, then to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   The 18 month – 2 year cycle is has a projection of xxxx, and an idealized bottoming window that starts xxxx and lasts through xxxx xxxx. The 3-4 year cycle has a huge likely bottoming window from xxxx  until xxxx xxxx, with a current projection of xxxx to xxxx. Conclusion, anything goes, with the least likely outcome being a xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx soon. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  Still negative overall but with potential early warning signs of a xx xxxx xxxx xxxx  forming over the next 2-3 weeks. The setup could xxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. A little weakness early this week xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side

Over the 4 days since I last posted the swing trade screens update, the S&P 500 is virtually unchanged. The 8 picks I posted on Tuesday morning, all shorts, have gained an average of 5%. So there’s a possibility that we’re on the right track by being only on the short side here.

I better be, because I’m adding 8 more shorts to the list this week. And I have decided to extend the stopless period from the usual one week to two.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly?

The market is poised to do something big this week. There’s the increased likelihood of a 13 week cycle upturn to give a little lift. But if they fail to get off the ground, a breakdown below xxxx could lead to a resumption of the crash.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-   The 6 month cycle remains in a strong down phase. It has a new cycle projection of xxxx, with a low ideally due in xxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxx xxxxxx. That should skew continue to skew xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xx So while an upturn in the 13 week cycle is xxxxxxxx xxxxxx, it shouldn’t xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail  The market confirmed an intermediate downtrend channel. The top line starts the week at xxxx and has a downslope of xx PPD to bring it near xxxx at the end of the week. They’d need to clear that to break the worst phase of this downtrend. Then they would need to clear xxxx to start a rally. More resistance would then await in the xxxx area. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   The 18 month – 2 year cycle is has a projection of xxxx, and an idealized bottoming window that starts xxxx and lasts through xxxx xxxx. The 3-4 year cycle has a huge likely bottoming window from xxxx  until xxxx xxxx, with a current projection of xxxx to xxxx. Conclusion, anything goes, with the least likely outcome being a xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx soon. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  Still negative overall but with potential early warning signs of a xx xxxx xxxx xxxx  forming over the next 2-3 weeks. The setup could xxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. A little weakness early this week xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Plunging in on the Short Side

I am adding 8 shorts to the chart pick list this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

 

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Market Reaches Do or Die, Right Here

And that’s for both parties to the conflict. Bears could be in charge for a very long time if this breaks down. Bulls would gain only a foothold, nothing more. Here are the keys to the outlook.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Beware! This Swing is Old

For the week ended September 30, there were 19 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, and 35 with second or third sell signals. Bears still had an edge but it was slight, and turns often occur without warning, particularly as a swing ages. And this one is aged.

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Non-subscribers click here for access.

On Friday on a standalone basis there were 13 buys and 9 sells. This is still nothing to get excited about for either side. Without a more lopsided advantage on both the multiple signal look, and the last day look, I want to tread lightly. This decline is already mature, and I’m concerned about a short covering spike, despite the lack of evidence. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I was underwhelmed on both sides. So I’ll stand pat and ride with what remains on the list after two picks hit their trailing stops last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The four remaining picks have gained an average of 4.7% on an average holding period of 7 calendar days as of today (Monday). The normal maximum number of picks is 12, so with 4 currently open, that implies just a 25% capital commitment with the rest assumed to be cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/26/22 Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.

But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen.  Life must be lived! Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now

For example, it could be a stake in the heart depending on whether xxxx holds or breaks.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

The market is extremely weak and in some respects the technical are similar to when the Fed stepped in to save the market in March 2020. But stock prices didn’t begin to rally until 10 days after the Fed first intervened with massive cash injections. So we probably shouldn’t think about a bottom here until the Fed reverses course and pumps in enough cash to make a difference. Non subscribers click here to access.

Unlike in 2020 however, this would be a policy 180. Back then, the Fed was already in a program of “enhancing” the market with QE. It just massively expanded it. I cover these issues in the Money Trends reports. Non subscribers click here to access.

In view of that context, any  readings of extreme technical weakness might be the precursor to a xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx rally, but there’s no reason to be xxxxxx xxxx stocks yet. On the other hand, it’s a little late in this move to be xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx on a swing trade basis. For nimble scalpers, I’d call it a “maybe.” Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  By one count, the 10-12 month cycle could be at a low, with a potential to turn up for a few months. However, a breakdown below xxxx would suggest that this cycle is early in a down phase, projected to last until at least next xxxx. That would imply the likelihood of much lower prices over the next xxx months. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a tentative 6 month cycle projection of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

A 4 week cycle low is due xxxx xxxx, at just xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If the market bounces early in the week, that scenario is in play. But if the 6-7 week variant is dominant, this week will get xxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxx. That cycle has a projection of xxxx, with the expected low in the last xxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle remains in a xxxxxxxxx window, with a projected low of xxxx-xxxx. With liquidity scarce, there’s potential for a vicious bounce driven by short covering at any time. But the question is whether it will come from this xxxx-xx area, or equally likely xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail To break the 2 steepest downtrend channels the SPX would need to end this week above xxxx. The top line of the third channel will be at xxxx on Friday. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a support convergence around xxxx at midweek. That’s a likely short term pivot area. If it breaks instead, the next target would be xxxx. And if that broke, we’d be looking for xxxx as the next likely target. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The support convergence at xxxx now looks critical. The next target would be xxxx-xxxx if that breaks. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  SPX has broken long term trend support and is now targeting xxxx-xxxx either by the end of October. The xxxx range should now be resistance. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Cycle screening measures plunged to extremes but suggest the possibility of xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx ahead for at least several more weeks. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Getting Shorter, Life Must be Lived!

As of the week ended Monday, September 26 closing prices, there was only 1 chart with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 53 with second or third sell signals. That compares with 64 multiple sells at the end of the week before. For the week, the bears still had it, but that can turn on a dime. On Monday on a standalone basis there were 9 buys and 9 sells. Nothing to get excited about for either side.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The scoreboard for September so far, excluding the two picks still open (+10.5% avg.), shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After visually reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, I found the one buy signal uninteresting. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the sell side, there were quite a few that appeared to have a little running room to the downside, but too little before reaching support. I skipped over those. Ultimately there were 4 that I liked enough to add to the list on the short side. They were xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Do we notice a theme there? The charts are posted below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 15% exposure that I theoretically committed on the existing picks, adding these 4 would bring me to a commitment of about 45% of my trading capital, with the other 55% in cash. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The two existing picks have gained an average of 10.5% on an average holding period of 8 calendar days as of today. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Would be nice to have had more shorts out, but with a schedule of only once a week, sometimes the swing trade turn gets missed, particularly when they happen on a V reversal. These are common at lows but rare at highs. Rare doesn’t mean never, however, and we got one two weeks ago. Non-subscribers click here for access.

But there’s something to be said for spending a few minutes a week on trading, rather than hours in front of a screen.  Life must be lived!  Non-subscribers click here for access.

For  this week, I’m adding 4 picks on the short side as of Tuesday’s opening print. I have added trailing stops to the two existing picks to take them out automatically if the stops get hit. The 4 new picks will have no stops for the first week to give them some breathing room. Diversification will provide some cushion if one of them goes haywire against us.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Stock Market in Crash Mode

The market is in crash mode. That doesn’t guarantee a crash. It merely suggests that conditions are as favorable as they get for one to occur. The crash window will remain open through the xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-  The 4 week cycle projection of xxxx suggests as much. The 6-7 week cycle has joined the down phase, but it’s too early for a projection on that. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle is in a bottoming window, and its projection has been hit. I’d expect xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx from that. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail The market is heading for support indicated around xxxx and xxxx. If those levels give way, the target could be major trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  The support convergence at xxxx now looks critical. The next target would be xxxx if that breaks. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  SPX has broken long term trend support and is now targeting xxxx xxxx either by the end of this month or October. The xxxx range should now be resistance. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Cycle screening measures plunged to extremes but suggest the possibility of additional severe weakness ahead until xxxx xxxxx .Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts

As of Monday, September 19, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals over the past two trading days, and 64 with second or third sell signals.  On Monday on a standalone basis there were 21 buys and 19 sells. Meh. But I found two charts that I liked as shorts.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

This is not a failsafe market indicator. Recall that the September 9 scan was 99 to nothing on the buy side. That turned out to be completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better. Non-subscribers click here for access.

completely wrong for the week. Fortunately, when I eyeballed the charts for buys to add to the list last week, I didn’t like anything, and elected to stand pat. On the other hand, there were some great shorts that the scan didn’t pick up. These moves are just too short in duration for this system to pick up. Trading ranges are meat grinders for swing trades, so the fewer picks in rangebound markets the better.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The scoreboard for September so far shows an average gain of 3.4%, on an average holding period of 15 calendar days. All of the 16 picks closed out so far in September were shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts of this week’s multiple buy and sell signals, once again, I did not see any charts I liked on the buy side. The intermediate trend setups were not conducive to significant upside. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Unlike the prior week, this time there were also some sell side charts to review. There were a few that looked borderline OK to short, but the setups looked a couple of weeks early for that. They are more likely to go sideways or pop a little first. However, as I reached the end of the alphabetical list, I could no longer restrain my bearish proclivities, so I will add xxx and xxx to the list as shorts as of the opening price today, September 20.  I am mentally limiting these to a total of not more than 15% of my trading capital to allow for building up to the normal 12-15 open trades at max.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/1/22 July had been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market until last week. Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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