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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Watch Out For a V Bottom

But bear market V bottoms end with different results than bull market V bottoms. The warning applies for a reason other than the one we are accustomed to.

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Cycles- Short term cycles are due to bottom now. The 4 week cycle projection of xxxx is done. The projection on cycles of 6-8 weeks points to xxxx. So the most obvious scenario would call for a xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx now, followed quickly by xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Longer cycles are all pointed down, with lows xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxx, with a 6 month cycle projection currently pointing to xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – The market would need to end this week above xxxx to get anything going on the upside. Conversely, an early week daily close below xxxx would immediately target xxxx, and if that did not hold, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market broke critical support at 3700 last week. Trend support is around xxxx this week. If that breaks, the next target area would be around xxxx, then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The S&P 500 fell below a long term support trend convergence at xxxx. The next
support level is around xxxx, and below that, xxxx. Long term momentum has edged to a 15 month
low, but has not broken its uptrend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate extended its crash to reach its lowest point since February 2020, during the Covid Crash. It’s the first time it has been below -2000 since then. This suggests that the market is within xxx to xxx months of a bear market low, but xxx xxx xxx xxxxx xxx. Even 1 month is enough time for massive damage. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Yes, More Shorts But There Are Limits, You Know

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 5 charts with multiple buy signals, and 118 with more than one sell signal. Of the 5 buys, 4 were inverse funds. Therefore the signals were actually bearish. And the final one was a precious metals ETF. Now, there’s a ringing endorsement for this market!

Meanwhile, on Friday alone there were just 5 buy signals, which, likewise, were all inverse ETFs and a gold ETF. There were 85 sell signals on Friday.

This is like the previous Friday, which also had an overwhelming preponderance of sell signals.

With 118 sells to choose from today, I found plenty of short sale candidates. The problem is that the market got way ahead of us this morning. So I whittled the list down from more than a dozen to just 5, and I will only start those if they hit a limit price equivalent their low price on Friday. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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I would not want to follow the usual procedure of just adding them as of Monday’s opening price. Even though they would be likely to work out well over a few weeks, there’s a good chance that Monday’s open will be near the low of the day. An ensuing face ripping dead cat bounce would put these deep in the hole to start if entered on the open. So the entries will be conditioned on trading at those limit prices at some point during the week. Then I’ll adjust on the fly next Monday.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

Last week, the list had an average gain of 8.4% with an average holding period of 18 calendar days, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.2% per week.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Five picks hit their stops last week. All were longs. The average gain on the picks that hit stops was 9.3%. Three picks remained open. All were shorts. I have adjusted stops on the open picks.

Picks closed out so far in June have averaged a gain of 7.1% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days. That works out to an average of 2.2% per week. Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 3 picks plus the 5 conditional picks. The 3 existing picks are all short (tank-gawd). The 5 new picks are also shorts, of course.

I’ve added stop levels to existing picks, to protect profits and close out picks as they age. While the new picks have limit entry prices, they don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week to any that are opened based on hitting their limit prices.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

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Remain Calm, All Is Hell

All hell has broken loose overnight on Sunday night, Monday morning. The S&P futures are already trading at 3820, which is the bottom of the broad intermediate downtrend channel on this chart. The May low has already been broken on the futures. This market is going lower.

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Cycles- If the market stays below xxxx this week, it would mean that the slopes of t he bigger waves are accelerating to the downside. The 6 month cycle lower edgeband will be at xxxx this week. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 13 week cycle should have a dead cat bounce at some point this week. Short term cycles are due to xxxxx xxxx this week. But any xxxxxxx should be followed by xxxx xxxxxx xxxxx over a protracted period. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx. There’s no 13 week cycle projection yet. The 4 week cycle projection points to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

13 week and 6 month cycle lows are ideally due in xxxxxxxxxxxx. Any rebounds before that should be xxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx. The downtrend must be xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. Rule Number Two – The trend is your friend. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – There are two critical support lines around xxxx. If the market breaks xxxx, this could turn into something the likes of which we have not seen since October 1987. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market is headed for a test of major support in the xxxx-xxxx range this week. Breaking that range would imply a long term measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The target should be approximately xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate crashed last week. This breaks the previous short term and intermediate term bullish patterns. 6 month cycle measures are both firmly on the sell side. This will take some weeks to repair, and it is likely to get worse before that repair begins.

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Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Dipping A Short Toe Before the Next Big Wave

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 18 charts with multiple buy signals, and 57 with more than one sell signal. On Friday alone there were just 20 buy signals and 113 sell signals.

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Those two stats suggest a weak week. But as I pointed out in this week’s market update, the broad market indicators suggest that the up phase should still have a little life before it rolls over. With that context, I said that I’d be cautious about adding shorts.

With 57 sells to choose from, it was hard to resist picking short sales. There were a few that I liked. They’re probably a little early, but the risk reward potential over time seems good. So I chose 3 to add to the list as of Monday’s opening price, xx, xxx, and xxxx. Each would seem to have a bearish narrative as well. Not that that matters, but it enhances my comfort level with the choices.

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Not that that matters, either. 😁

Last week, the list had an average gain of 8% with an average holding period of 2½ weeks, including picks closed during the week, and those still open on Friday. That worked out to an average gain of 3.3% per week.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Last week’s overall performance was down from +11% with a similar holding period, in the previous week. We expected this.

5/31/22 We have to be careful though. We’ve seen previously that when the list has double digit gains, the stocks on the list have reversed sharply. So I continue to tighten stops to close out the pick at an opportune time and protect profits.

Three picks did hit their stops last week. All were longs. One had a nice gain, but it was canceled out by two losers. Five picks remain open. Four have gains. I have again adjusted stops on the open picks.

Meanwhile, picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That works out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. The 3 longs all came since May 16.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 8 picks including the 3 new picks. The 5 older picks are all longs. The 3 new picks are shorts.

I’ve again adjusted stop levels to protect profits and close out picks as they age. The new picks don’t have stops. I’ll add them next week.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.


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Here’s Why It’s Too Soon to Go Short Again (Mostly)

I may regret this headline when I go through the chart pick screens this morning, but at least we have a context. If a chart is ambiguous, I want to come down on the side of caution in terms or whether or not to short. At the same time, xxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx, xxx the individual setup would need to be very powerful for me to want to try to board the bull train at this stage of the rally. Besides, we’re already on it.

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Cycles- Short term cycles are due to top out between xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxx, with projected highs of xxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. But it’s too early for the 13 week and 6 month cycles to top out and roll over. Ideally that would happen in xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxx.

Of course we don’t live in an ideal world, so we need to be alert for signs of an earlier peak.

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Third Rail Channels – Potential intermediate term trend resistance starts the week at xxxx and drops by approximately 15 points per day to xxxx on Friday. If that’s cleared, then the target would be resistance around xxxx-xx. Below xxxx-xx, there’s nothing but air to around xxxx.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The turn in late May suggested an intermediate bottom. The rally is also what I call a “return to the scene of the crime,” where the market rallies back to the area of a technical breakdown. The rally could extend to xxxx without negating the negative implications of the breakdown. Any higher would call that into question.

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Monthly Chart – The SPX stabilized above a long term uptrend line at xxxx at the end of May,. If it breaks , the target would be approximately xxxx. If it holds look for resistance around xxxx.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate formed a double peak with the March high. However, the number remains strongly positive; the short term pattern xxxx xxxxxxx, and the intermediate term pattern xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. The market would need to xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Monday and/or Tuesday to xxxxxxxxxx short term xxxxxxxxx pattern.

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Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

A Great Week for Swing Trade Screen Picks

Last week, the list had an average gain of 11.2% with an average holding period of 2½ weeks. It was a very good week indeed. We have to be careful though. We’ve seen previously that when the list has double digit gains, the stocks on the list have reversed sharply. So I continue to tighten stops to close out the pick at an opportune time and protect profits.

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The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Last week, 4 picks hit those stops. 3 were shorts put on in early May. The gains on those were 1.1%, 23.3%, and 28.1%, with an average holding period of 3 day. One pick was a natural gas play that whipsawed and still looks good, so I put it back on the list.

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 24 charts with multiple buy signals, and 7 with more than one sell signal.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day.  I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. I didn’t see any worthy of adding to the list, on either the buy side, or the short-sale side. We’re in an in-between stage where nothing looks particularly interesting either way. So I’ll ride the ones what brung us as shown on the table below.

Picks closed out in May have so far averaged a gain of 3.4% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. There have been 25 closed picks. All were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

This week we start with 8 picks including the one rebuy. All 8 are longs. Six are direct energy plays.

I’ve adjusted stop levels to protect profits and close out picks as they age.

All active picks and those closed last week are shown on the table below. Charts of open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 6 longs and 17 shorts. I set one to be covered on Monday’s open. 13 others hit their stops during the week and were closed out. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 3.6% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks closed out in May have so far averaged a gain of 1.4% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen too often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 11 picks including the 2 new ones. 8 of the 11 picks are longs. Only 3 remain short. If the market crashes this week, I’m sorry, but we’ll miss it and hopefully the 8 longs being mostly energy and one precious metal, won’t be among the casualties.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that (subscriber report only).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Shot from Guns, This Market Looks Like Puffed Rice

Did I misread the technical indicators last week? I was leaning bearish because of them, even though the liquidity analysis was warning of an oversold reaction rally being imminent. So was the 13 week cycle setup. But the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles still looked bearish. I allowed for a short term rally, but with the proviso that I did not expect it to amount to much, because the longer cycles were still pointing down. “A 13 week cycle low is due in late May or the first half of June, with the projection of 3800-3820 now done. The up phase shouldn’t amount to much with both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles in down phases.”

Fortunately, the chart pick list, which is born of a more mechanistic process that doesn’t allow for much thought pollution from me, was 100% long by mid week last week. The longs that I added early in May are doing really well. Maybe too well. I’ll get to that in the upcoming chart picks update.

As for the broad market as of now, the question is whether the rally will amount to more than “not much.”

This report lays out exactly what to look for, for the answer, including a new price target for the 6 month cycle high, and expected time frames for the 13 week, 6-8 week and 4 week cycles. It shows which price targets have been met, and which haven’t.

Non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Even Steven in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in a near tie. There were 28 charts with multiple buy signals, and 27 with more than one sell signal.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. The charts were as equivocal as the numbers suggested. There were no screaming buys or sells, but I took flyers on XXXX and XXXX on the Buy side. I chose no shorts. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 6 longs and 17 shorts. I set one to be covered on Monday’s open. 13 others hit their stops during the week and were closed out. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 3.6% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks closed out in May have so far averaged a gain of 1.4% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen too often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 11 picks including the 2 new ones. 8 of the 11 picks are longs. Only 3 remain short. If the market crashes this week, I’m sorry, but we’ll miss it and hopefully the 8 longs being mostly energy and one precious metal, won’t be among the casualties.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Market Indicators Show Crash Risk Remains Intact

Last week’s low took out the prior low. The market has been making lower highs and lower lows for over 5 months. That’s a bear market in my book, the Wall Street captured media’s stupid 20% rule notwithstanding.

The breakdown of the top pattern has a conventional measured move price target of xxxx (non subscribers click here to access)..  That’s just for this first leg of the bear market.

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Intermediate cycle projections point to xxxx (non subscribers click here to access).

A break of xxxx (non subscribers click here to access) should signal acceleration of the crash.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Buys Beat Shorts Again in This Week’s Swing Trade Screens

On the week, buy signals overwhelmed sell signals, thanks to Friday’s rebound, but they had the lead earlier in the week as well. The final score for the week was 186 Buys to 125 Sells. That compares with the prior week’s  235 Buys to 147 Sells and 114 Buys to 118 Sells the week before that. However, on Friday alone, there were 101 buys and just 13 sells. This suggests an up week ahead.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 48 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 3 on the sell side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 3 buys and no shorts. For the second straight week, all the buys were in the energy business.

Last week we started with 23 picks on the list. There were 3 buys. The rest were short sales. Two picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. I elected to close out one on Monday’s open. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 1.9% with an average holding period of 13 days.

Closed picks in May have so far averaged a gain of 2.9% on an average holding period of 11 days.

April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Normally that doesn’t happen to often, but we must roll with the punches when it does.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 days. The 5 picks closed out in May so far had an average gain of 4.3% on and average holding period of 12 days.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we start with 23 picks including the 3 new ones. 17 of the 23 picks are short sales.

I’ve added new stops to the picks from last week, and adjusted stops on the remainder. This week’s new picks will be added without stops as usual. I like to give them breathing room at the beginning, and manage risk by having multiple picks.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

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