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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Top Swing Trade Picks & Market Insights: Gold, Footwear, and Short-Sale Opportunities – Jan 12, 2025

🔗 Subscribers, download the full report here to access this week’s detailed analysis and chart picks.

Oh, Dem Golden Slippers!

This week’s Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks provides a comprehensive look at market trends, offering actionable chart picks for swing trades. Here’s a preview of what our proprietary technical cycle screens uncovered:

  • Market Sentiment Shifts: A significant tilt towards sell signals for the fourth consecutive week, indicating potential opportunities for savvy traders.
  • Long-Term & Intermediate Trends: Key insights from proprietary cycle screens of all actively traded NYSE and Nasdaq stocks, highlight swing trend changes, exclusively for subscribers.
  • Performance Updates: December closed with an average gain of 3.7% over a 29-day holding period, reinforcing the value of disciplined, data-driven strategies.

Stay Ahead of the Market: Our proprietary algorithm continues to evolve, integrating adjustments aimed at enhancing entry and exit timing and reducing noise in trade signals. Subscribers gain exclusive access to expertly curated charts and performance tracking to refine their trading strategies.

🚀 Take your trading to the next level! Subscribe to our Technical Trader service designed for chart traders, and those looking for early warning on fundamentals based opportunities and dangers. Gain access to weekly chart picks, detailed performance tracking, and exclusive insights.

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Market at Critical Crossroads

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Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

The S&P 500 is testing key resistance at xxxx. A breakout could signal a short-term uptrend, while failure to hold would complete a head-and-shoulders top pattern, with a conventional measured move  target at xxxx. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

  • Key Levels:
    • Support: xxxx, xxxx
    • Resistance: xxxx, xxxx

Dow Jones Industrial Average: The Dow is challenging its downtrend channel. A close above xxxxxx signals a breakout, while failure risks falling to support near xxxxxx.

Cycle Analysis: Short-Term: Market strength could confirm a xxxxxx xxxxx xxxxx

  • Long-Term: Vulnerable below xxxx, but potential remains for xxxxx by mid-2025.

Indicator Review: Mixed signals. Short-term indicators lean xxxxxxx, but intermediate cycles show xxxx xxxxx. Sustained gains this week are xxxx xxxxx xxxxx.

Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Swing Trade Chart Picks – January 2025

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Our proprietary cycle screens revealed 161 charts that met minimum long term ideal buy criteria last week, and 309 that met ideal long term sell criteria. This was from a universe of approximately 1500 listed stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. That’s the third straight week that the tilt was to the sell side on major trend indications, but the margin was smaller than in the two prior weeks.

Of those long-term potential buy setups, 52 also met ideal intermediate term buy side criteria. Of the long-term sells, 138 also met ideal intermediate sell criteria. That margin was smaller than the prior week.

The intermediate buys and sells were screened for having hit corresponding short-term triggers last week. The result was interesting. There were 14 short term buys triggered and 11 sells. Is that the seed of change? I admit to not knowing. The purpose of the screening algo is to identify potential trading opportunities, not to forecast market direction.

On visual review I liked 4 of the buys and just one of the sells (sell short). I’ll add them to the list based on the average of today’s opening and closing prices, with one exception. That is as shown on the table below. That one has a limit price for the week, as shown. If hit, it will be added. If not, it stays off.

Meanwhile, I had already trimmed the list over the holiday weeks, and I’ll be closing another short as of today’s open. I’ve added a stop to the remaining pick.  Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.

For the month of December, including the last current open pick and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain was 3.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. For January, we start with almost a completely new list, based on a few algorithm adjustments that I have made to reduce the number of false positives.

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Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Topping Patterns? Here Are the Year-End Signals

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Cycles – Intermediate cycles are xxxxxx or trending xxxxxx, while short-term cycles are mixed, driven more by year-end market conditions. Earlier indicators pointed to tops in the x and x-xxxxxx month cycles. Although xxxxx targets have been met, cycle indicators remain xxxx, with ample room for xxxxx lows in the 13-week and 6-month timeframes. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Cycle Screening Measures – Last week’s rebound turned the aggregate measure positive, recovering from a recent low that was near the April bottom. The 29-day moving average (MA) remained flat, sitting just below prior cycle lows, aligning with the 6-month cycle low in May. The cumulative line rose slightly but stayed under the 29-day MA, remaining on an intermediate term xxxx signal. New 6-month cycle indicators shifted to a xxxx signal, suggesting a potential cycle xxxx, but year-end seasonality raises doubt. A clearer picture should emerge in the new year. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Third Rail – The market is in a short term downtrend channel but still aligns with longer-term uptrend channels. Key support lies between xxxx-xxxx. A break below xxxx would be a head-and-shoulders breakdown targeting xxxx. Downtrend resistance ranges from xxxx to xxxx, while upward resistance appears at xxxx and xxxx. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – Updated projections suggest a market top is forming, with recent highs near the projected peak. A significant drop below xxxx would suggest a long-term cycle top. Indicators reflect a maturing bull market, but a market recovery this week could signal continued upward movement, delaying the peak well into next year. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

Monthly Chart – The market remains within the center of a narrow uptrend channel. January’s lower boundary is at xxxx, with the upper limit near xxxx. Although momentum is weakening, it remains xxxxxxx, and no xxxx signal has been triggered yet. Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

New Year’s Chart Picks Update

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Happy New Year. Here’s a quick update on our chart picks. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

The screens revealed 133 charts that met minimum long term structural buy criteria last week, and 500 that met minimum long term structural sell criteria. That’s two straight weeks that nearly a third of all the stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria were on the sell side. It suggests that there will be more opportunities to sell short in the new year.  Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Of those long-term potential buy setups, 132 also met intermediate term buy side minimum criteria. Of the long-term sells, 499 also met intermediate sell criteria. The intermediate buys and sells were screened for corresponding short term triggers. There were 11 short term buys triggered and 41 sells. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

On visual review I liked none of the buys and just one of the sells (sell short). The rest of the sells have already moved and do not have ideal entry setups .Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Meanwhile, 5 picks dropped off the list last week, as shown on the table below.  

Including picks closed last week and the one still open at the end of the week, the list had an average gain of 10.1% on average holding period of 30 calendar days. That compares with +7.6% the previous week on an average holding period 31 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

I had culled losing positions earlier in the month. As a result, including the last current open pick and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain in December has been 3.7% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Chart Picks Say Merry Christmas

Subscribers Only. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

With gratitude for your support, I wish you a Joyeux Noel and Happy New Year from Nice, France!

The screens revealed 33 charts that met minimum long term structural buy criteria last week, and 455 that met minimum long term structural sell criteria. That’s nearly a third of all the stocks that met minimum price and volume criteria. It’s a dramatic change that suggests that there will be more opportunities to sell short in the new year. Just not right now. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Of those long-term potential buy setups, just 24 met intermediate term buy side minimum criteria. Of the long-term sells, 317 met intermediate sell criteria. The intermediate buys and sells were screened for corresponding short term triggers. There were 3 short term buys triggered and 18 sells. The reason that there were so few short term sells is that most of the damage had already been done. The next round of sell signals after a rebound or consolidation should be good short sales. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

On visual review I liked none of the buys or sells (sell short). The holiday week is always a good time to take a break anyway.

Meanwhile, 11 picks dropped off the list last week, as shown on the table below. I had recommended 3 to be sold as of the open last week. The rest hit my posted stops. I am placing or maintaining stops on all but 1 of the 6 picks that remain open to begin the holiday week. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Including open picks as of December 20, and those closed last week, the list had an average gain of 7.6% on average holding period of 31 calendar days. That compares with +7.0% the previous week on an average holding period 30 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

I had culled losing positions earlier in the month. As a result, for December as a whole, including current open picks and those closed earlier in the month, the average gain has been 3.5% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

This system obviously isn’t perfect. The screens have done a good job of finding winners but also too many that turn bad. I continue to tweak the algorithms with the goal of including checks in the screening process that will recognize setups that will not be profitable. However, sometimes good charts end up breaking bad. 😁 Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails. If you use those services, please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

S&P 500 Nearing Critical Levels – Is the Bull Market Dead?

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🚨 Weekly Market Insights – Down, But Not Out 🚨

The S&P 500 is approaching a tipping point, and understanding the next move could give you the edge in this volatile market. The latest Technical Trader Weekly report highlights crucial levels and cycle trends you need to watch. Click here to access a risk free trial.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

🔄 Cycles:
The market is flashing signs of topping out. Projections suggest the S&P 500 could hit highs between 6000 and 6200, with the 2-year cycle expected to peak by early 2025. A drop below 5700 could signal the end of the bull market, but a recovery above 6020 could keep the rally alive into next year.

👉 Want to stay ahead of these trends? Non subscribers can click here to access a risk free trial.

📊 Cycle Screening Measures:
A short-term low might be around the corner, but the broader outlook is weakening.  While there’s room for a rebound, the widening downside signals suggest deeper corrections ahead.

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Third Rail – Key Levels to Watch:
The S&P 500 recently broke down from a compact top pattern. A break below xxxx could lead to steeper declines, with xxxx being the critical level to watch. However, a move above xxxx opens the door to fresh highs.

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📅 Long-Term Weekly Chart:

A close below xxxx would likely confirm the market has reached the top of the 3-4 year cycle, signaling a bearish shift. However, staying above xxxx in January could extend the bull market. This aging trend still has potential – if it holds key levels.

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📈 Monthly Chart Outlook:
The S&P 500 is pushing near the upper bound of its long-term uptrend, with resistance climbing to xxxx. Support rests at xxxx. If the market stays above xxxx into January, further gains are possible. A break lower than xxxx would trigger broader sell signals.

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💼 Why Stay on the Sidelines? 
Get exclusive access to professional insights and detailed market breakdowns that give you the upper hand. Click here to unlock full access and stay ahead of market trends. Try the service risk free for 3 months. 

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

This summary is produced by AI, for the purpose of search engine optimization (SEO). The analysis, conclusions, charts, and discussion in the subscriber report are entirely and solely the original work product of Lee Adler, derived from raw data and original analysis based on 60 years of market observation and technical charting.  

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Weekly Market Insights: Is the Market Waiting to Get Fed?

The stock market is perched at a critical juncture, awaiting clarity as conflicting indicators create a tense atmosphere for traders and investors. Short-term cycles hint at potential shifts, while long-term trends remain intact—for now. Key metrics suggest the market could see either a resumption of its rally or a possible turn toward consolidation later this week.

One thing is clear: the interplay between technical resistance levels and support zones will play a pivotal role in defining the next moves. Will the market break through the current trading range, or will it reverse? This week, price action could offer the first hints.  Non subscribers can click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

Indicators to Keep You Ahead

  • Cycle Trends: What do mixed signals from 6-month and longer-term cycles suggest for future market direction?
  • Third Rail Dynamics: How could trading within a defined range signal the next big move?
  • Market Momentum Breadth: Why are cumulative indicators hovering near critical levels, and what does it mean for upcoming trends?
  • Long-Term Channels: Is the market’s climb still aligned with historical trendlines, or are we nearing a turning point?

Gain exclusive insights on what’s driving the market—and the actionable strategies you need to stay ahead. Don’t miss out on the deeper analysis of these unfolding trends. Subscribe now to access the full report and ensure you’re ready for whatever the market brings next.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

This summary is produced by AI, for the purpose of search engine optimization (SEO). The analysis, conclusions, charts, and discussion in the subscriber report are entirely and solely the original work product of Lee Adler, derived from raw data and original analysis based on 60 years of market observation and technical charting.  

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Technical Trader Weekly Chart Picks: Top Swing Trade Opportunities This Week

Swing Trade Screen Highlights – 1 New Short Pick
This week’s screening revealed a dynamic shift toward sell setups: Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

  • 116 charts met long-term structural buy criteria.
  • 180 charts met long-term structural sell criteria.
  • Intermediate triggers: 81 buys vs. 114 sells.
  • Short-term signals: 7 buy triggers and 17 sell triggers.
    Non-subscribers can click here for access.

After a visual review, 1 short-sell pick stood out, which will be added on Monday. All picks are tracked based on half-position entries at the opening price and the remainder at the close.
Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Performance Review:
The portfolio had an average gain of 7.0% over a 30-day holding period, maintaining consistency compared to last week’s performance. Historical monthly results include:
Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Trading Strategy Note:
The strategy illustrated is experimental and may not suit all investors. These picks serve educational purposes for experienced chart traders seeking actionable ideas. Always consult with an advisor before making investment decisions. Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Charts of Open and New Picks To view the list and charts of open picks, Non-subscribers can click here for access.

Disclaimer:
All recommendations are theoretical and assume cash-based trading with no margin or options. Use risk management techniques tailored to your investment strategy. For more insights, visit Liquidity Trader.

The screens, analysis, and conclusions in this report are the author’s. This public summary post has been edited by AI for the purpose of search engine optimization (SEO). The original subscriber report is strictly the author’s.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails. If you use those services, please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

Stock Cycles Point Upward but High Due Soon with S&P Near Projections – Technical Trader Report

Cycles are in gear to the upside. A 6 month cycle high is due shortly, but projections point much higher.  Non subscribers can click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the full report.

Cycles are aligning for an upward trend. A 6-month cycle high is expected shortly, but projections suggest even greater potential. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Cycle Analysis:
The 6-month cycle projection has increased to xxxx, though it’s worth noting that the 13-week cycle projection of xxxx appears more realistic. There are still x-x weeks left in the current up phase. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Short-term cycles are in sync, with projected highs of xxxx expected this week. Any mild correction could pave the way for a breakout toward the 13-week cycle projection. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures:
Data was weak last week, no longer supporting the rally. A down day on Monday would break the pattern of higher lows. If the market holds, the pattern remains neutral to modestly bullish. However, the 6-month cycle measures have flipped to xxxxxxxxxx, signaling at least a xxxxxxxxxxxx. Smoothed, lagged measures are on the verge of triggering xxxxxx if the market holds steady this week. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Trend Channel Analysis:
The lower trendline of the sharpest short-term channel is rising from xxxx to xxxxx this week. If the market closes above xxxx on Friday, it will remain in an intermediate-term uptrend. Support at xxxx is the next level, with a potential drop to a significant support cluster around xxxx if broken. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart:
The market is rising in the mid-channel, with clearance to xxxx by year-end. Channel support rises from xxxx to xxxx by mid-January. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Monthly Chart (12/2/24):
The lower channel bound sits at xxxx this month, with the upper bound around xxxx, setting the stage for potential price action in the coming weeks. Non subscribers can click here to access.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.