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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip to Buy Side

Last week’s daily screens tilted to the buy side, going against weakness in the market averages. The final score for the week was 97 Buys to 37 Sells. That reversed 3 straight weeks with a plurality of sells.  Prior to this 3 week run, buy signals had held the edge for 3 weeks.  Cycles!

However, on Thursday April 14 alone, there were just 6 buys and 33 sells, portending a soft start for this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.
I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday for the holiday shortened week. I then rescreened that output, for additional signals in the progression on Wednesday and Thursday. The final lists this week resulted in 67 chart pick candidates on the buy side and just 8 on the sell side. Slim pickings for shorts this week.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 4 buys and no shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below (Non subscribers click here for access).

Last week we started with 9 picks on the list. 3 were buys, 6 were short sales. Five picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 2.8% with an average holding period of 11 days.

Picks closed out in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Picks closed out in April so far have had an average gain of 1.8% with an average holding period of 11 days.

It would be nice if we could annualize these numbers, but reality doesn’t work that way.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

This week we will start with 7 picks on the list including the 4 new ones. 6 are buys. 2 are shorts.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (non-subscribers click here for access). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Stocks Are Not Breaking Bad

We’re on the doorstep of massive T-bill paydowns over the next 4 weeks, that are a bullish influence every year at this time. But stocks aren’t acting like it. Or are they? Surprisingly, cyclical breadth momentum indicators are not acting as badly as the market averages.

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What’s it mean? The market still looks xxxx xxxxx xxxxx (non subscribers click here to access), but that xxxx looks like it will come from xxxx xxxx first. There’s little sign of an immediate collapse, just a xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxxx, then finally, the rally that fools the majority.

Here’s how it should play out (Non subscribers click here to access).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Chart Picks Maintain Sell Side Tilt

Last week’s daily screens tilted to the sell side again. The final score for the week was 125 Sells to 82 Buys. This was the third straight week with a plurality of sells. Prior to this 3 week run, buy signals had held the edge for 3 weeks.

On Friday April 8 alone, there were 11 buys and 41 sells, portending a soft start for this week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists this week resulted in 8 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 15 on the sell side.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 1 buy and 2 shorts to add to the list, shown on the table below (subscriber version).

Last week we started with 9 picks on the list. 5 were buys, 4 were short sales. Three picks hit their trailing stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 5.3% with an average holding period of 11 days.

Picks closed out in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. The use of leverage and options will magnify both gains and losses.

Likewise, it would be nice if we could annualize these numbers, but reality doesn’t work that way. Some months have what traders euphemistically call “drawdowns” — losses by any other name.

This week we will start with 9 picks on the list including the 3 new ones. 3 are buys. 6 are shorts.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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There are Profit Opportunities in a Rangebound Market

Big T-bill paydowns are coming in the second half of April. That will continue to support a “rally that fools the majority.”

But it doesn’t guarantee it. We’ll let the market do the talking, based on what it does with these key support and resistance levels (subscriber version).

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – There’s no thrust in either direction. Cycles are likely to remain in juxtaposition for the next couple of months. It’s a recipe for a xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version).

That doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to do. Some stocks will make swing moves, whether up or down. The swing trade chart pick screens should be able to pick some of them out.

Third Rail Chart – The trendline to watch starts the week at xxxx (subscriber version) and ends at xxxx. A daily close below that line would invalidate wider uptrend hypothesis. A daily close below xxxx would be needed to signal a new short term downtrend.

If the uptrend channel holds, look for resistance around xxxx first. If that’s cleared, the next likely target would be resistance around xxxx.

Long Term Weekly– The February-March lows appear to have been a two year cycle low. That only tells us that an up phase is due. It does not tell us the absolute direction of that up phase. That depends on the longer cycles.

The 3-4 year cycle is in a top phase, but it still has an unmet projection of xxxx (subscriber version) that can’t be ruled out until the top breaks down. That would require a weekly close below xxxx.

A 7 year cycle top is due this year in a projection range of xxxxxxxx. It’s not yet possible to say whether the top is complete or a new high is still on the docket.

Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April.

Cycle Screening Measures – These indicators were mixed and neutral in the short run, xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version) for the intermediate term. They still support the liquidity analysis based thesis of a xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx (subscriber version) that could last into mid May.  

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Holding Longs, Adding Shorts

Last week’s daily screens tilted away from the buy side and toward the sell side for a second straight week. The final score for the week was 254 Sells to only 45 Buys. The previous week it was 122 to 51, Sells over Buys.   Prior to that, the balance had consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4.

3/28/22 The preponderance of sell signals last week suggests that it’s time for a consolidation, at least. However, when I reviewed the final screen of the week’s previous signals, I didn’t see anything I liked as a short sale.

This weekend was a different story. I found 4 charts that I liked enough to add to the list as short sales.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On Friday, April 1 alone, there were 10 buys and 46 sells, despite a bit of a recovery in the market averages.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in zero chart pick candidates on the buy side and 26 on the sell side.

I found that surprising, but I’ve learned not to argue with the numbers. Most of the time they foreshadow what’s coming pretty accurately.

I reviewed the charts from the final output visually. From that review, I chose 4 shorts to add to the list (subscriber version only).

Adding those picks this week leave the list with 5 open buys and 4 shorts. It suggests a transitional or mixed market without a strong trend.

Last week we started with 8 picks on the list. All were buys, no shorts. Three picks hit their stops and were closed as of the stop price. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 3.4% with an average holding period of 10 days. That compared with an average gain of 2.0% and average holding period of one week in the previous week.

The week before saw an average gain of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. This was with mostly longs. The week before that saw an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. That was with all shorts. So the screening method reversed positions right on time, in going from short to long.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only). Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Market Still in “Fool The Majority” Mode

Cycles – The 6 month cycle has is in an up phase, ideally due to top out xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).

Short term cycles and the 13 week cycle may have peaked, but there’s no sign yet of a xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). The down phases could xxxx xxxxxxxx  xxxxxxxx xxxx in the 6 month cycle up phase. The S&P would need to drop below xxxx to turn the down phase into something more damaging.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Third Rail Chart –  Friday’s rebound may have set up a new uptrend channel. A down day Monday would invalidate that thesis, but a solid up day would confirm it.

If the verdict is down, the first place to look for support would be around xxxx. The deeper such a move would go, the more likely it would be to be a resumption of the primary downtrend.

On the other hand, a rally through xxxx would reaffirm the meltup, which would then probably target a full test of the December high.

Long Term Weekly– The February-March lows appear to have been a two year cycle low. That only tells us that an up phase is due. It does not tell us the absolute direction of that up phase. That depends on the longer cycles.

The 3-4 year cycle is in a top phase, but it still has an unmet projection of xxxx (subscriber version) that can’t be ruled out until the top breaks down. That would require a weekly close below xxxx.

A 7 year cycle top is due this year in a projection range of xxxxxxxx. It’s not yet possible to say whether the top is complete or a new high is still on the docket.

Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April.

Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate signals weakening short term momentum, but xxxx (subscriber version) for the intermediate term. The same is true for the 6 month cycle measures, the 29 day MA, and the cumulative line.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Screens Be Nimble, Screens Be Quick – They Were!

When I ran the data the raw daily totals for last week, there was a surprise. They ended with a solid edge to the sell side. The final score for the week was 122 to 51, Sells over Buys. The week before, buys had a solid edge, 185 to 71. That compared with 187 to 146 Buys over Sells, the week before that. Buys also led three weeks ago. The balance had been consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The preponderance of sell signals last week suggests that it’s time for a consolidation, at least. However, when I reviewed the final screen of the week’s previous signals, I didn’t see anything I liked as a short sale.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

On Friday, March 25 alone, there were 23 buys and 25 sells. It seems to contradict the gain in the market averages Friday, but it’s narrow enough and small enough to indicate that it’s merely a function of the fact that the buy train has left the station. It’s not a sign that the train has reached the end of the line.

I screened the lists of previous daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. From that ouput, I looked for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in 12 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 15 on the sell side. I reviewed those visually, and also looked at final signals triggered the week before.

After reviewing those charts, I chose 3 to add to the list (subscriber version only). All were on the buy side. This string of all buys is now 3 weeks old. That’s a shift from the prior 3 months when all picks were on the short sale side.

Adding those buys this week leave the list with no open shorts and 8 buys.

Last week we started with 7 picks on the list. There were two shorts and the rest buys. The shorts hit their stops with small losses. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave the list average gains of 2.0% with an average holding period of a week.

The week before saw an average gain of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. This was with mostly longs. The week before that saw an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. That was with all shorts. So the screening method reversed positions right on time, in going from short to long.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below. Charts of new and open picks are below that.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

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Here’s Why This Will Be “The Rally that Fools the Majority”

At the beginning of most great bear markets, there’s invariably a big rally that convinces most that the bull market is still running. Then the market tops out a little below or above the last market peak, rolls over, and proceeds to drop in a series of stairsteps that lasts from 12 to 30 months.

Those are real, grinding bear markets. We haven’t had one of this since 2007-09, because every time one threatened, the Fed intervened to re tilt the playing field. It probably can’t do that this time, because of the entrenched high inflation.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Joe Granville called that last rally, “the rally that fools the majority.” There are signs that this could turn into just that. I’ve been posting long side trades for a couple of weeks. It looks as though we can stay with them xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). Xxxx xxxx xxxx xx xxxxx reverse that strategy.

Cycles –   The 6 month cycle has clearly entered an up phase, ideally due to top out xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).

In that context, up phases in shorter cycles should continue xxxx xxx xxx xxxx (subscriber version) next few days. The 13 week cycle high is ideally due by xxxx xxx at a projection of xxxx. But its indicators are positioned for an extended up phase, so I wouldn’t marry that xxxx xx date.

6-8 week cycles are due to peak xxxx xxx xxx with a projection range of xxxx-xxxx. The 4 week cycle is ideally projected to top xxxx xx xxx  in the xxxx-xxx area.

Third Rail Chart –  The lower line of the wider meltup channel starts the week at xxx on Monday and rises to xxxx on Friday. The meltup will remain intact for as long as that line remains unbroken.

Intermediate trend downtrending resistance starts the week at xxxx and descends to xxxx on Friday. If cleared, the SPX will then target apparent resistance around xxxx.

Long Term Weekly- For now, I must assume that this is a bear market rally. But if it clears the long term trendline around xxxx this week, that view could change. That would call for a tactical adjustment in trading.

Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around xxxx in March and xxxx in April.

Cycle Screening Measures The cycle screening aggregate stayed pinned at a high level all week. This remains bullish for both the short term and intermediate market trend.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Screens and Picks Keep Buy Side Tilt

The raw daily data for last week ended with a solid edge to the buy side. The final score for the week was 185 to 71, Buys over Sells. That compared with 187 to 146 Buys over Sells, the week before, and 188-153 in favor of Buys the week before that. The balance has been consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4. We were forewarned, but suspending disbelief was my psychological obstacle. Ideally, I would have gone with more buy picks last week, instead of just a lonely, one.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

On Friday, March 18 alone, there were 21 buys and 10 sells. This tilt supports the strategy of staying mostly on the buy side for now.

I screened the lists of previous daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. From that output, I looked for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in 9 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 3 on the sell side. I reviewed those visually, and also looked at final signals triggered the week before.

After reviewing those charts, I chose 4 to add to the list (subscriber version only). All were on the buy side. This is a shift from the past 3 months when all picks were on the short sale side until last week. This will leave the list with 2 open shorts, both REITs, and 5 buys.

Last week we started with 7 picks on the list. One was a buy; the rest were short sales. 4 of them hit their trailing stops, and were closed out from the list as of that print. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. Not bad, but a bit of giveback from the record 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days the week before. The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Had I been able to suspend my disbelief that the market might be turning, I would have added more buys last week. But the psychological stumbling blocks still remain, after all these years.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only).

Charts of new and open picks are below that

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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Dog Market Gets the Zoomies

I have determined that this is no longer a bull market. But neither is it yet a bear market. It’s one of the rarest of rare markets in technical analysis. It is a dog market. And it has the zoomies. It will chase around wildly, but not really go anywhere. This could last for a couple of months.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles –  The “weak” 13 week cycle up phase morphed into a meltup, but is still due to top out within  xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).. A new cycle projection points to a target of  xxxx xxxx. If it stops there, or doesn’t get there, the downtrend in the 10-12 month cycle wave would still be intact. However, short term cycle projections point to  xxxx – xxxx.

There are signs that the 10-12 month cycle has bottomed, but this cycle has been dormant, so I am not giving these signs much weight yet.

The 6 month cycle has entered an up phase. The next cycle high is due in  xxxx xxxx  (subscriber version). It’s too soon to tell what shape the up phase will take, but not too soon to say that significant downside is xxxxxx before the summer.

Third Rail Chart – The bottom of a meltup channel rises from around 4300 to 4450 this week. If the SPX stays above that, the meltup remains in force. If it breaks, then look for support between  xxxx and xxxx (subscriber version). Downtrending resistance starts the week at xxxx and descends to xxxx on Friday.

Long Term Weekly-  Parallel channel resistance is around 4460 this week. Break that, and the target would then be xxxx(subscriber version), with room to run to xxxx if that’s broken.

Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx (subscriber version) in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around 4650 in March and 4700 in April.

Cycle Screening Measures The cycle screening aggregate has had a momentum thrust. These almost always mean higher prices to come. The short term and intermediate patterns are now both xxxx (subscriber version). The all-important six month cycle measures are now strongly xxxx. Smoothed measures are lagging and have not yet confirmed the turn. However, they could catch up if the rally continues early in the week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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