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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Overloaded with Broad Market Shorts and Oil and Gas Longs

Sticking to the method that I developed for this exercise finally paid off last week. The list returned to solid profitability for the week, after a frustrating quarter. For the week, the list showed an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of just 6 calendar days.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

But the market is still rangebound. Until that changes and there’s a trend breakout where we can hold winners for more than a millisecond, it will continue to be a dogfight in this theoretical attempt to extract meaningful swing trade profits week in and week out.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Holiday Wishes from Lee to You

With the holidays here, I know that you and your fellow subscribers will be busy with more important things, so I will also take the opportunity for a little down time.

I will post a swing trade chart picks update this weekend. Then I will take a few days to relax and enjoy the season before resuming regular publication after New Year’s Day.

I wish you and your families the Merriest Christmas and Happiest New Year, Happiest Hannukah, Kwanza, and Festivus for the rest of us.

I want to thank all of you for helping me to have a very good year. Here’s to a good 2023!

Lee

The Trend Was the Bears’ Friend

A couple of weeks ago the market averages came right to long term downtrend lines from the January peak. At that point, there were multiple signs that the rally would continue. We considered all the “what ifs,” including the one that entailed stopping dead at the trendlines and reversing. That seemed unlikely. But it’s what happened. It reaffirms the bear market for now. Now the cycle setups and conventional technical analysis indicate that there’s xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxxx for this downturn to xxxxxxx.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles– Both the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles now appear to be xxxxx xxxxxxxx. The 13 week cycle appears to have the potential for xxxxxx xxxxxx. There are no projections yet but the cycle low is not ideally due until xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. That’s plenty xxx xxx xx more xxxxxxxxx to develop after short term cycles finish an up cycle due between xxxxx and xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Short term cycle lows are due xxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – The S&P 500 is now within a short term downtrend channel whose lower line starts this week at xxxx and drops by xxx points per day (PPD) to end the week around xxxx. The centerline now represents resistance. It drops from xxxx to approximately xxxx this week.

Should the S&P drop below xxxx early in the week, it would suggest a possible crash. The most significant support would be in the xxxx xxxxxx range. The next target below that would be xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – Last week’s selloff miraculously preserved the long term downtrend channels. Long term and 3-4 year cycle indicators are on the verge of xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Failed signals are normally strong trend continuation indicators. In this case, they would xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart  – The S&P turned down right at the long term downtrend channel line on the monthly chart. Long term momentum is back on the cusp of xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx a secular bear market if it happens. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The aggregate indicator remains short term xxxxxxxx and is near xxxxxxx intermediate term. The indications suggest a 13 week cycle xxxx xxxxxx and 6 month cycle xxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Short Stops Killed but Many More Added

By now you are well aware how much I hate stops. As a result, I had evolved a strategy of foregoing stops in the first week chart picks were placed on the swing trade list. Last week, my instincts told me to break that “rule,” and place stops on new picks both long and short.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

My instincts stunk, but miracle of miracles, the list is still ahead for the month of December. And I have come up with a strategy to maintain profitability and, at the same time, cope with the market’s increasing intraday violence.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Swing Trade Screen Picks – 4 More Shorts. 4 More Shorts

For the week ended December 9, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 52 with second or third sells. Interestingly, 7 of the sells were fixed income ETFs. I take that as a sign that the bond rally is probably finished. Which in the world of tight liquidity isn’t such great news for stocks either.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

The residual momentum of the 174 to 18 win for the buy side 4 weeks ago was finally exhausted last week. There was a modest bulge in sell signals on Monday that was the extinguisher. That subsided later in the week, but it set a tone. 12/2/22 Often the results of such surges don’t begin to show up until the second week after the bulge in signals. Without any in-depth statistical analysis, my sense is that a signal surge like this has a shelf life of 3-4 weeks. Consequently, I think that time is up on this rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In my visual review of the screen output this week I leaned toward giving the benefit of the doubt to the sell side but I did find one interesting buy which I added to the list, as shown on the table below.
At the same time, I found 4 that I liked on the sell side, and added those as shorts. This week I elected to go with post entry protective stops for the new picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All previously open picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below (subscriber version). After adding the new picks, there will be 4 buys and 12 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, performance was positive, with an average gain of 3.7% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. This was an improvement on last week’s +2.5% on a 2 week average holding period. Non-subscribers click here for access

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Limited Supplies Delivered At Bear Custard’s Last Stand

The major cycle technical bear case gets to live another day this week. I drew the parameters of the line in the sand last week, and the bulls didn’t cross it. But the bears didn’t win outright either. They need to hold the line this week to continue what may be the onset of a 6 month cycle top process.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles-   There are hints of a downturn here but up phases in the two longer cycles could xxxx xxx xxx xxxx xxxx. The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due xxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxx xxx x xxxxx xxxxxx. Cycle projections remain in the xxxx-xxxx range, implying that the rally will xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx .Non subscribers click here to access.

Short term cycles are mixed but the 6-7 week cycle was xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx , so I’m wary of xx xxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – A weekly close above xxxx this week would break the sharp downtrend from last week. However, weakness on Monday would suggest xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. A daily close below xxxx would imply a measured move target of xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

If they manage to break out of the downtrend channel, there’s a big resistance cluster around xxxx-xxxx. If cleared, it would open the likelihood of upside to xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –  Last week’s pullback kept the bearish case alive but the S&P still needs to stay below xxxx or xxxx at most, to keep the long term downtrend intact. If it’s broken to the upside, that and other long term indicators could signal the end of the bear market. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   12/4/22 The rally needs to end December below xxxx, or the bear case will be in trouble, at least in the short run. Clearing that level would imply a target of the trendline at xxxx or the xxxx xxxx of xxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The aggregate indicator is now short term xxxx, but the intermediate term not so much. The indicators suggest, but don’t yet confirm, that the 6 month cycle has xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. They allow for taking xxxx positions, but with protective stops just in case this 6 month cycle xxxx xxxx gets a xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx topping out. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Report Notification Emails

I have just become aware that the email notification system stopped working properly a couple of weeks ago. I have just run an update of the software which hopefully will correct this. Please check the home page of Liquidity Trader for any recent updates in case you missed them.

I apologize for the snafu!

Lee

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Picks are Balanced this Week

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week ended December 2, there were 44 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 45 sells. 2 of the sells were bearish ETFs. 1 of the buys was also a bearish ETF, resulting in net gain of one on the bear side, and a final score of 45 bullish and 44 bearish signals. That’s essentially a tie after two consecutive weeks of a bearish tilt in new signals. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The market overall is still riding the residual momentum of the 174 to 18 win for the buy side 3 weeks before. Often the results of such surges don’t begin to show up until the second week after the bulge in signals. Without any in-depth statistical analysis, my sense is that a signal surge like this has a shelf life of 3-4 weeks. Consequently, I think that time is up on this rally. But there has been no sell side surge in recent weeks, so the path of least resistance should still be on the buy side until we see triple digits on the sell side one day. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the above in mind, in my visual review of the screen output this week I leaned toward giving the benefit of the doubt to the buy side. But most of the buys were trading at or just below major resistance. I took a shot on three that appeared primed to break out. Non-subscribers click here for access.

At the same time, I found 5 that I liked on the sell side, and added those as shorts. All or noted on the table below, with charts following, so that you can judge for yourself whether you agree with my take. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All previously open picks and those closed out last week are shown on the table below After adding the new picks, there will be 5 buys and 8 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, performance went backward, with an average gain of 2.5% on an average holding period of 2 weeks.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Bears Last Custard Stand

The major cycle technical bear case may already be dead. This week is probably the last chance for bears to reassert themselves and regain the upper hand. Otherwise, indications will tilt toward a 3-4 year cycle low is behind us.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

That doesn’t mean that a major secular upleg is ahead. I would expect something along the lines of a late 1960s, early 70s cycle bull move that merely retests the 2021 high. But this is conjecture. December is the month where one side or the other must prove itself. As of now, bulls have the edge, but if the month ends with the S&P 500 below xxxx, bears get the ball again. Non subscribers click here to access.

In the short run, my trading posture would be to xxxx xxxx dips and xxxx xxxxx rips, but not to xxxx them yet. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles- The 6 month and 10-12 month cycle tops are due between now and xxxxxxx xx. Cycle projections have now risen to xxxx-xxxx. If they clear resistance in the xxxx-xxxx zone, I would take that projection as a given. If they don’t, then we watch day to day for signs of whether it’s a top or consolidation. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – Bears need the SPX to end the week below xxxx to have a shot at reversing the rally. Ultimately, a breakdown below xxxx would be required to get anything going on the downside. If resistance in the xxxx-xxxx is cleared, the next target area would be around xxxx, and if that’s broken then xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The surge in 10-12 month cycle momentum suggests that the market will make a run at xx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx. That in turn could trigger a cascade of longer term buy signals on 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators. This week seems like the bears’ last chance to make a stop and regain the upper hand. Non subscribers click here to access.

Updated long term cycle projections suggest that the bottom is behind us. There’s still time for reversion to something more consistent with a bear market if the rally reverses and ends December weaker than xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx . That’s a big if. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – The rally needs to end December below xxxx, or the bear case will be in trouble, at least in the short run. Clearing that level would imply a target of the trendline at xxxx or the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

10/10/22 Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – Bullish short and intermediate term patterns established in early November have yet to be broken. A couple of down days would be needed this week to break that trend. Likewise, continued strength would be a bullish indication for the longer cycles.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts)

For the week ended November 25, there were 36 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 54 sells. 3 of the buys were bearish ETFs, resulting in a final score of 43 bullish and 57 bearish signals. That’s the second consecutive week of a bearish tilt in new signals, and a reversal from the 174 to 18 win for the buy side two weeks before.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Bear in mind that this is but a fraction of the 1300-1400 issues that normally meet the minimum screening criteria of price of $6+ and average volume over a million per day for the past 4 weeks. Therefore the past two weeks of small numbers of sell signal pluralities did not overcome the bullish thrust of two weeks before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

11/21/22 This has been rangebound meat grinder market, characterized by whipsaw signals on both sides of the ledger. Rangebound markets tend to slice and dice swing trade systems that are looking for moves of several weeks, as my system is. It’s a market that takes us out behind the woodshed, and administers a financial and psychological beating. It’s a reminder to stay humble and alert. We just have to gut it out, outlast it, and work on catching and being well positioned for the next swing, regardless of direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of the recent character of the market, I again reviewed the charts with an abundance of caution this weekend. I again came up empty on the buy side. I was equally unimpressed with the sell signals, but there were two that I liked enough to add to the list for this week. All picks closed out last week along with open and new picks are shown on the table below with 3 longs and 7 shorts. I added or adjusted stops on open picks as shown. Non-subscribers click here for access.

For the week, we saw good performance, but it is tenuous. There were 7 winners and 1 loser. The average gain was 5.4% on an average holding period of 12 calendar days. Table below (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

November has been a struggle. On picks closed out this month, the list has shown an average loss of 1.9% on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. If there are profits this week, that will even out somewhat. Over the past 12 months, the average gain has been 1.6% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately 1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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