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Author: Lee Adler

How Stocks Can Forestall the Inevitable

If the rally doesn’t broaden and gain strength this week then it’s probably on its last legs, and set for a big correction. Any broadening this week would forestall that indefinitely.  Here are the specific levels and time frames to watch to know what comes next. . Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February

Withholding tax collections soared in February to their highest level in 13 months. If this is not just a flash in the pan or data anomaly, it could mean smaller than forecast deficits ahead. Smaller deficits translate to less than expected Treasury supply. But less than expected isn’t less in real terms. Supply will still be huge, and still a problem for the market to digest over the longer term. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

But in the short run, the strongest revenue collection period of the year starts now. Corporate income taxes for last year are due on March 15, and both annual individual and quarterly individual and corporate income taxes are due April 15. Which is why, every year from mid March to late May, the annual revenue windfall leads to paydowns of Treasury bills. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Those paydowns put cash back into the pockets of the holders of the paid down T-bills. That cash figruratively burns holes in the pockets of those entities, mostly professional investors, who then use that cash to buy longer term fixed income paper and yes, stocks. That’s why we normally see a seasonal rally in the stock or bond market, or both, in the spring. The timing varies, but significant strength in April and May is the rule. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

When the paydowns end and the government starts borrowing heavily again, the markets often sell off.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

So should we expect anything different this year?  Here’s the answer, and an explanation of why that is, and how to take advantage of it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Liquidity analysis gives us the context, or the map of the general direction where we can expect the markets to head over the next few months. That helps us to better understand the message of the technical charts.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile, the Fed’s RRP facility, which has been the source of much of the money contributing to the stock and bond market rallies, continues to be drained. However, the rate of withdrawals has slowed dramatically. As a result, the money in that pot looks likely to last longer than I originally expected, especially if T-bill paydowns increase on the strength of greater than expected revenues. This report also shows you exactly what that means for the markets.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My List, No New Shorts

Based on Thursday’s closing prices, the swing trade screens generated 57 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 75 which met all sell criteria. This again suggests that this is a mature up-move, not one in its early stages. However, the margin and total numbers are too small to suggest a broad extended downturn.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance improved from the week before. The average gain was 7.4% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days. That’s versus a gain of 4.8% on an average holding period of 26 days, the previous week. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list’s current recovery is more than sufficient to overtake the net loss on all closeouts in February, which had a net loss of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This does not include the 12 remaining open positions currently on the list, which have an average gain of 13.8% on an average holding period of 23 days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This morning, I reviewed all of the charts produced by the screens. I was skeptical about the sell signals since they were mostly from stocks still in uptrends. While some of them will crack, most won’t and I don’t like the odds against shorting stocks in uptrends. The remainder had already been downtrending for months, or were stuck in ranges with multiple whipsaw signals. I skipped those as well. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the buy side, most charts again looked to be too late in the game, but there were 3 that I liked for their potential to be late-stage movers, or long-term breakouts that look likely to extend. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Tracking of the new picks will assume a half position purchase on the opening price and half on the close as of today, March 1. Non-subscribers click here for access.

3 picks hit stops since the last report and 4 others were closed out as of last week’s opening print. I have added or adjusted stops on several of the remaining picks. The rest I’m content to let ride for this week. The table below shows open picks and those closed out last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing

Neither the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data, nor its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system yet shows any sign of an imminent end to the stock market rally. On the other hand, there’s plenty of evidence of an entrenched mania. And they usually don’t end well. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

We can deduce that the fuel for this rally has several sources. They’re not finite. This is a matter of where there’s a will there’s a way. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Some of it is bond portfolio liquidation. Some is margin. Some is foreign money inflows. None of it is coming from the Fed. This is all about animal spirits, and the power of animal spirits to create money from nothing and stocks for free. Just borrow the money into existence. Or move it from something else, or somewhere else. That can go on and on until the mass psychology exhausts itself. When that happens, it usually does so with a vengeance. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This process is sustainable until it isn’t. We, like the Fed, are data dependent, and that data includes both the liquidity data and the technical analysis data that I cover in the Technical Trader reports. So far neither set of data is screaming “It’s over!” Until they show signs of topping out simultaneously, we have to let it ride. The theater is crowded, but there’s no point in screaming “Fire!” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Charts Say- All Important Monday

If the rally doesn’t stop right here, it will head for multiple targets over the next few months. Here are those targets and ideal timing. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Holds for Hold

The 13-week cycle appears to have turned up, and other factors look potentially bullish, but with an extreme degree of risk. Here’s what needs to happen before the train can leave the station.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Meanwhile, I’m keeping the 4 mining charts on the pick list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – What Happens When Not Holding the Mag Seven

Despite the huge gains on Thursday there were only 39 charts which met all my buy side criteria in the screens, and 26 with meeting final sell criteria. It suggests that this is a mature up-move, not one just getting started. By the same token it shows no sign of an imminent downturn.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance was disappointing in light of the big move. That’s because I had too many shorts on the list. The average gain was just 4.8% on an average holding period of 26 calendar days. That’s versus 2.8% on an average holding period of 18 days, the previous week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

It’s disappointing not to take full advantage of that huge gain. On the other hand, buying and holding the Magnificent Seven for the past couple of years would have been brilliant… Right… what they say about hindsight.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

If you’ve known me for a long time, you know that I am more comfortable shorting stocks than buying them. That’s been the weakness in this process in the past 18 months. I’ve been fascinated by those stocks that the screens are spitting out on the sell side, but shorting them hasn’t worked well. The downsides have been limited, if they emerge at all.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

This morning, I looked at the 26 charts on the sell side with interest to see if any of them stood out. Upon visual review, let’s just say that I was underwhelmed, which skepticism would have served better if I had applied it 4 weeks ago. But I did cave on two of them, and added them to the list on the short side as shown on the table below.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the buy side, most charts looked to be too late in the game, but there were 6 that I liked for their potential to be late-stage movers, or long-term breakouts that look likely to extend.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

All tracking, except for one pick, will start assuming half the purchase on the opening price and half on the close as of today, February 23. The exception is based on a limit price being hit at some point prior to the next update. These are all shown on the table below.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

6 picks hit stops since the last report. I will close out 2 shorts as of the opening print today. I have added or adjusted stops on several of the remaining picks. The rest I’m content to let ride for this week. The table below shows open picks and those closed out last week.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Charts Say- Read My Lips, One More Rally

There are indications of top formation in the 6-month cycle and 6-8 week cycles. But projections suggest at least one more rally with new highs targeted around xxx xxxx. The 10-12 month cycle high isn’t due until xxxxxxxxxxx, with the projection widening to xxxx-xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

In the short run, the 13-week cycle still has time on the meter for its up phase, with a projection of xxxx and a high due in xxx xxxx xxxx xxxxx.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Market Sentiment vs. Liquidity Reaches Historical Hysterical

In last week’s report, we noted that “One of the key measures of animal spirits versus liquidity has reached an historic level of insanity that could mark the end of this move. Or it could signal the beginning of even more craziness.” Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The market’s verdict last week was “more craziness.” But the liquidity readings still are not cooperating. That craziness should end with a thud in the next couple of weeks. We’re already seeing the indigestion in the bond market. I think that that’s a sign of things to come, with worse news ahead for Treasuries and other fixed income. And then for stocks. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The issue, as always is the timing. We’ve reached a stage in this market that the weekly banking data and real time weekly Fed balance sheet data is more important than ever. Therefore, I will go to a weekly follow up on this.  I’ll show you the charts, tell you what they mean, and we’ll formulate a plan for how to handle the tactical view from the TA.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This very well could be the week that was. One way or the other. This report shows what the key is, and what to do about it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Recovers Both Ways.

Over the past two trading sessions there were 102 charts with a second buy signal on the week, and 192 with a second sell signal. That includes signals from Tuesday’s big selloff and Wednesday’s big rebound. The bears still had the bigger numbers. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were too many to review visually, so I added a filter to test 6-month cycle status. After applying that, there were 59 buys and still 174 sells. That speaks for itself. Non-subscribers click here for access.

List performance improved in the past week with an average gain of 2.8% on an average holding period of 18 days. That compares with the February 6 status of an approximate breakeven with an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I am standing pat on the list this week. Yesterday, due to a Windows update meltdown, I was forced to reboot my computer 10 times until I finally was able to get it running smoothly again at 10 PM last night. As a result I was not able to accomplish the tasks I normally would have. So I will set aside looking for new picks for this week. We already have a very substantial list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

3 picks hit stops last week. I have added or adjusted stops on several of the remaining picks. The rest I’m content to let ride for this week. The table shows open picks and those closed out last week. Non-subscribers click here for acces.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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