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Author: Lee Adler

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Well Hedged List Gives Steady Performance in the Wild Market

Lee Adler

I apologize for the late posting! The report was written over the weekend but inadvertently not uploaded. Performance slipped yesterday but no stops were hit. The performance table is updated with Monday’s closing prices. Charts are as of Friday, April 5.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

The list had an ok week last week, despite the market’s wild fluctuations. The average gain last week was 17.3% on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. That includes picks still open at the end of the week, plus those closed out during the week. That performance compares favorably with the previous week’s 16.7% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

4 picks were stopped out last week with an average gain of 15.4% and an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Past performance does not suggest future results. But at least this suggests that since I have made the change to a fully automated selection process over the past 3 weeks, so far, so good. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output of various buy and sell filters. The second filters those for intermediate trend. The third is a filter of short-term signal triggers. This is new as of March 2024. The new method reduces the final output to a manageable number for final visual review as a check, to remove those that I’m not comfortable with for final selection. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

The latest screens found 321 total unfiltered buys and 522 total unfiltered sells last week. That compares with the previous week’s 117 buys and 238 total sells. So it still appears to be a two way market, with an edge to the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Friday alone saw 4 buys and 3 sells after the final trigger filters were applied. Not much to choose from. The trends on both sides are mature. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Due to the scarcity of picks on Friday, I reviewed charts from the rest of the week as well as Friday’s picks. Nothing was still interesting. Some had already moved and the rest didn’t have setups that I liked. So I am adding only one pick to the list this week. It’s a short, shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Going forward, I will review the performance of the charts I rule out on visual review to see if this is a worthwhile step, or whether simply going with the raw output yields better results. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I want the output to be simple to follow and to require only a few minutes to review and implement each week. On that score, I post a table with specific signal indications along with the charts of the new buy and sell short picks so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into last week with 10 open picks, including 3 shorts and 7 longs. 4 longs hit their stops during the week, leaving 3 short and 3 longs at the end of the week. I am adding just one short and no buys this week, to start the week with 3 longs and 4 shorts.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I have adjusted stops for most existing picks. I have removed a stock from one pick and will let it ride this week. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Chef Says Choose One from Column A Or One from Column B

Lee Adler

Headline Corrected

The market pulled back to the bottom of projected cycle channels last week. A decline would signal that those channels are beginning to turn lower, although not necessarily down in absolute terms. There would be a basis for xxxxxx xxxxxx on swing trades.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On the other hand, if the market firms up from here, then there would be room to run to xxxx or higher over the next xx-xx weeks. That would be a setup for picking up long positions for a trade.   Non subscribers click here to access.

 

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk

Lee Adler

Withholding tax collections looked very strong for March, at first glance. But there was a one day anomaly in the data that skewed the monthly number hugely positive. It was the only day like that. When I adjusted that day to something consistent with the direction of the rest of the month, suddenly things didn’t look so hot. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

That said, more revenue is more revenue, and for March at least, there was more revenue. That means less Treasury supply. Add that to the positive seasonality of tax collections adding cash to government coffers which in turn leads to massive paydowns of Treasury bills, and April and May still come out as cash cows for stocks and bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

And that’s normally bullish, regardless of all of the market histrionics of the past week. Of course cash doesn’t guarantee a bull stampede, but it means that the gates are open for them to easily run through. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As you know, this is only part of the big picture. It’s an important one though. This report tells, and shows, you what you need to know to understand what to do with your portfolio to protect yourself from what’s to come, and even profit from it.

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Banking Data Says This Is Last Hurrah for Stocks

Lee Adler

The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system have flashed warning signs that the rally is on its last legs. xxxxxxx, Treasury bill paydowns have begun on schedule, and they will xxxx cash xxxx the markets for the next 6 weeks.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

This will lead to xxxx xxxx xxxx for stocks, and should also xxxx the bond market. A big xxxxxxx in bonds hangs in the balance. Stocks should be xxxxxx off and on through April and part of May before the xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx vomitorium.   Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold Goes Space Needle

Lee Adler

The 9-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx as the cycle got a second wind. The high is due by xxxx xx. The 13-week cycle is due to top out within xxxx xxxx, with the projection xxxx xxxx. However short-term cycles turned up early, with an initial 4-week cycle projection of xxxx. The long term high base breakout is targeting xxxx.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

We have new mining picks on top of profitable stopouts. Subscribers, see table in report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Extended Uptrend Yields Just One New Pick

Lee Adler

The screens found 384 total buys and 238 total sells last week. Among those were 26 short term buy signals and 15 short term sell signals that were actually triggered on one of the days. On Thursday only (final trading day last week), there were 117 total buys and 57 sells. 11 buys and 4 sells were triggered Thursday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

However, I couldn’t find much in the way of low risk trend structures. The buys were mostly already extended or one of a series of whipsaw signals. The sells were mostly still in uptrends, and will be subjected to rebounds from rising trend support. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was a good month. The average gain for picks closed out this month was 7.3% on an average holding period of 32 calendar days. The average gain on picks still open plus those closed out last week was 16.7% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Publication is on a weekly interval, but with revised methodology I now review charts daily. There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output various buy and sell triggers. The second filters those for intermediate trend. The third is a filter of short-term signal triggers. The new method reduces the final output to a manageable number for final visual review and selection for the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I want the output to be simple to follow and to require only a few minutes to review and implement each week. I post a table with specific signal indications along with the charts of the new buy and sell short picks so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We came into last week with 11 open picks, including 4 shorts and 7 longs. One long and one short hit their stops during the week leaving 3 short and 6 longs at the end of the week. I am adding just one long and no shorts this week, to start the week with 7 longs and 3 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted stops for all existing picks. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Nowhere to Go but Up

Lee Adler

There’s no sign of meaningful downside from the cycle picture, even though a late 6-month cycle down phase remains a possibility. Here’s what to look for next.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Cycles – The 10-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxx xxx. A down phase hasn’t materialized. While there’s still time, it may not, due to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in April.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – . The SPX could be making a double top, but Thursday’s high exceeded the earlier high by a hair. If they’re going to top out, they usually miss by a hair. The odds favor xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If they take out the high, there’s immédiate clearance to xxxx, rising to xxxx at the end of the week.   Non subscribers click here to access.

There are a couple of trend support lines at xxxx-xxxx on Monday which would need to be broken for a pullback to happen. The first support area is at xxxx. Only if that’s broken would we get the beginnings of a bigger top pattern.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Long-Term Weekly Chart – 3/24/24 An updated 3-4 year cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due in 2025.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – A strong March turned long-term momentum to the buy side, signaling a likely 7-year cycle up phase. The top of the uptrend channel is around xxxx in April. If cleared, the next trend resistance and target would be roughly xxxx. The upper channel line would become support. For now, xxxx is support.   Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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The End Is Not Nigh

Lee Adler

Or maybe it is. The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system have begun to flash warning signs that the rally is on its last legs.  xxxxxxxxxx, Treasury supply conditions for the next 6 weeks will be favorable for xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Tax revenues in March and April create a cash bulge for the US Treasury. It normally uses that cash to pay down a couple hundred billion in T-bills in April and May. They plan to do so again this season. The money from paying off those T-bills will flow into investor accounts. Some of that money will be used to buy stocks and bonds. That should cause xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx into mid to late May.

But we shouldn’t ignore the signs that this will be the xxxx xxxx xxxxx for this stage of the bull run. A bond market rally should also be another opportunity to xxxxx  fixed income.

Get the report now, for specifics.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving

Lee Adler

That’s right. Always stay flexible. Be the ball. Not the bat.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

A 10-12 month cycle projection has reappeared, and it’s higher. It now points to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.   Non subscribers click here to access.

A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxxxxxxxxxxxx. A new up phase could start and take off in renewed upside acceleration within xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. We need to be prepared for that. So don’t disbelieve it if it happens. Take advantage. Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stocks Barnburner Set for Conflagration

Lee Adler

March has been a good month so far. The average gain for picks closed out this month, and those still open as of March 23, was 16.3% on an average holding period of 34 calendar days.  Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

In lieu of my visual review of dozens, if not more than 100, charts generated by the raw data from the screens, I have developed an algorithm overlay that will now make the (almost) final selections. My judgement wasn’t that good anyway.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

This method is mechanical and non-judgmental. However, I still review the reduced output for any charts that are generating signals from already extended trends. They probably have more to run, but when they turn, those turns could be fast and violent. This is a risk to be avoided given the weekly publication interval. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

That weekly interval keeps things simple for both of us, a goal to be desired but not often attained. In this case, the method is complicated, and takes place behind the scenes. The goal is that the output should be simple to follow. While I post a table with specific signal indications, I also post the charts of the new buy and sell short picks are posted so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output of buy and sell triggers in several time frames. The second filters those for intermediate trend. Previously, I reviewed that output visually. I now apply a third filter instead. It’s a filter of short-term signal triggers as of the day before publication. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

This week’s screens generated 24 charts on the buy side and 91 on the sell side on the first pass. On the second pass there were still 24 on the buy side 87 on the sell side. In the screen of final short-term triggers on Friday, there were 3 buys to 7 sells. I excluded charts that were extended in their trends. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

We came into the week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. 3 longs and 2 shorts hit their stops during the week leaving 1 short and 5 longs at Friday’s close. I am adding 3 short sales and 2 buys to the list assuming a half position at the opening price and half at the closing price. That means that the list will start the week with 7 longs and 4 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

I have adjusted trailing stops for all existing picks. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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