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To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question

Wall Street is largely theater, so we need to be able to suspend disbelief if we want to invest and trade successfully.

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Cycles- All cycles remain in gear to the upside, but cycle highs are due xxxxxxx xxxxxxx in all cycles up to 13 weeks duration. Cycle projections of xxxx-xx on the 13 week and 6 month cycles, and xxxx on the 4 week cycles have yet to be hit, so an xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxx is still possible. But it should be the xxxx xxxxxx for xxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The 10-12 month cycle high isn’t due until xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. So we could be in for a lot of xxxxxxxx xxx and xxxx for the next xx xxx months. Unless the market xx xx xxx this week, from a technical perspective the bias should be to the xxxxx for xxxxx months. That’s xxxxxxx xxx the liquidity backdrop. Non subscribers click here to access.

What to do! Non subscribers click here to access.

Hold on to your hats and be nimble.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels –  The market now faces trend resistance at xxxx. If they clear that, the next trend resistance channel line is indicated around xxxx early in the week, headed for xxxx later in the week. Non subscribers click here to access.

Closing above xxxx would result in a conventional measured move target of xxxx. A daily close below xxxx would be needed to suggest even the possibility of a short term downside reversal. Non subscribers click here to access.

 Long Term Weekly Chart –  The 10-12 month cycle bottom looks xxxx. The market is now entering an area of what should be massive resistance from xxxx to xxxx. 3-4 year and long term cycle indicators have not xxxx xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –  Clearing xxxx would make room for a move to xxxx-xxxx. Failing to clear xxxx would allow for a drop to trend support around xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The aggregate indicator has formed a negative divergence xxx the strength of the numbers is very xxxx. The last time the indicator made a pattern like this was from xxxxx xxxx- xxxx xxxx. I need not remind you what happened during that period. Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Has Made a Bottom

The price has broken out of a tight 3 week reverse head and shoulders. The implied measured move target is only xxxx. Cyclicality would be favorable for an additional advance from there, after consolidation. This outlook is not carved in stone. There’s still a risk of a lower low on the 9-12 month cycle. To confirm the bullish view, the price needs to be above xxxx by the second half of August.

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Over the past week the mining stock sector generated 14 charts with repeat buy signals and just 3 with repeat sell signals. That’s a good performance, especially after the previous week when there was also a preponderance of buy signals. It’s not an across the board thrust, but we’ll take what we can get. This is the first sign of a bottom, so signs of tentativeness are to be expected.

Upon visual review, I selected two charts to add to the list this week, XXX and XXX.

The two picks added last week are up an average of 3%.

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The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers

As you may know, I recently moved to Nice, France, purchased an apartment, and began renovations. I’m living and working in a construction site, and personally managing the renovation. I’m having a blast, but it’s not without its challenges, particularly on leaving enough time to fulfill my obligation to you to get these reports out to you on a timely basis. I’m a little late this week, and I ask your forbearance in this process.

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This undertaking being in France means that those doing the work here will disappear for the month of August. I’ll “relax” by getting these reports out to you on a more regular schedule, at least until the second phase of my reno gets going in September. Everything should be done by the end of September. Then I won’t have any more excuses for late postings. I can’t use strolling the Promenade des Anglais, or Nice’s Old Town just two blocks from here, as an excuse (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

If you have never been to the South of France, or even if you have, I encourage you to visit. It’s an amazing part of the world. The options for things to do around here are endless, whether it’s beaches, outdoor activities, sightseeing, or culture and food. The last two in particular. It’s France, after all (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

Fall is gorgeous here, with daytime highs in the low to mid seventies through October, and the mid to high sixties in November. And it is sunny almost every day. If you would like to come, and have questions, drop me a note. Of course, we’ll meet for a cup of coffee, or a drink, or a meal on one of the hundreds of terrace restaurants all over this city. There are thousands of outdoor cafes and restaurants for you to enjoy all around the region, with the some of the world’s best sightseeing (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

Now on with the show. This is the Primary Dealer update, which I last did in mid June. First, I’ll replay the summary from the last report, then update you on the details through this week. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

The bottom line is this. Don’t be fooled by what the media is touting as a massive rally in bonds. Yes, it looks big, and it probably has a little further to go over the next couple of weeks. But in the big picture, it’s nothing. It’s likely to xxxx xxx xxxx xxxx (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

Meanwhile, the dealers have mitigated some of their risk, but they and their big bank parents remain at great risk if bond prices start declining again. That should happen as liquidity begins to tighten again in xxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxx. (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

The bond rally should have a bit further to go, but I’d be a seller on the first technical signs that the trend is turning. And when bond yields start to rise again, and bond prices start falling again, I’d expect stocks to suffer from the same adverse liquidity factors that would be pulling the bond market down.

LATE BULLETIN! HOLY COW, as I was proofreading this report, I just checked the Treasury issuance schedule for this week, and the Treasury will issue $40 billion in new T-bills on  Monday. That will upset the apple cart. Let’s just accelerate the time frame for when I expect the market to begin experiencing tighter liquidity from xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx, to the xxxxxxxxx x xxx xxxxxx. We need to be on the lookout for signs of reversal in the bond rally xxxxxx xxxxxxx  I originally thought (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

But at least this news confirms my earlier forecast that the T-bill paydowns would end in July, making for tighter liquidity in conjunction with the Fed’s QT program. And lest we forget, they plan to double the amount of system withdrawals in that program beginning in September (Non subscribers, click here to read this report).

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Swing Trade Screens – Surprise, Surprise – A Few Shorts

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 54 charts with multiple buy signals, and 14 with more than one sell signal. That’s bullish, but doesn’t suggest major thrust. These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. Furthermore, a preponderance of these signals were in fixed income funds and high yield stocks.

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The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s still a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 35 buy signals and 19 sell signals. These are low to middling numbers. While bullish, they do not suggest a broad, powerful rally. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria expecting to find a few buys. I did. Two to be exact. But I found 3 that had nice setups on the short side. Go figure. All 5 picks are shown in the charts and table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. I start the weekly process by screening for daily buys and sells from the previous Friday through Thursday. I then rescreen that output, for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options. Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given. Non-subscribers click here for access.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days.

July has been a narrowly rangebound meatgrinder market. We managed not to get chewed up by mostly staying away. So far this month only two picks have been closed out for an average loss of 2.6%. The two remaining open picks have an average gain of 3.7%. That compares with 12 closed picks in June for an average gain of 10.1%.

This week we start with 2 open picks, both buys and will add 2 buys and 3 shorts. We had no stop-outs last week.

The picks are shown on the table below. Charts are below that. Because of my late posting today, I will track the new picks with an opening price of their 12 noon New York price.

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Gonna Take You Higher, But Not Too Much

Cycles- The bottoming process in the longer intermediate cycles xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx  as short term cycles got in gear to the upside last week. This doesn’t mean that we’re in for a long and winding xxxx xxxxxxxx phase.

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A 4 week cycle high is due xxxx xx to xxxxxx xx, with the projection xxxxxxxxx xxx. However, the 6-8 week and 13 week cycles point to a range of 4xxx-xxxx, with a high due as late as xxxxxx xx. So the market still has a bit xxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxx over the next week. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Beyond that, the 6 month and 10-12 month cycles have xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx. A 6 month cycle high is due xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxxxx, with an initial projection of xxxx. That’s probably not the last word on that. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail Channels – If they clear xxxx, the initial targets would be xxxx, and then xxxx. Only if they break those would xxxx be likely as the next target. If they pull back, support is at xxxxx and xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – This chart now suggests but doesn’t confirm a 10-12 month cycle xxxxxxx. Longer term cycle indicators remain bearish. Resistance is suggested around xxxx, and if cleared, xxxx. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – If they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal but is still above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal.

Cycle Screening Measures – The numbers were strongly positive all week, even Friday, after the pullback. Last week I said that the intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. With persistently positive numbers for a month now, I’d call it manic. But until the numbers go negative for more than a few days, then the mania will remain in force. .Non subscribers click here to access.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Catch a Falling Knife

Gold’s short term cycles have entered up phases but they haven’t shown anything so far and aren’t likely to. The longer swing cycles have yet to indicate that they’ve bottomed, and they still have lower projections. There’s still risk that they’ll be reached over the next month or two.

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Over the past week the mining sector generated 19 charts with a second or third buy signal on Monday, and no multiple sell signals. Sounds good, right? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Uhh…. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This market reminds me of the old Perry Como song. “Catch a falling knife and put it in your pocket. Never let it stab your leg.” Bottom picking for counter trend rallies in bear markets is not my favorite pastime. But given that any bottom could lead to a big rally, I will put one big toe in the water, and steel myself for its amputation. So, from my bottom picking perspective, I’ll go with XXX, tracking it as of the opening price on Tuesday. And, what the hell, XXX has room to pop, with nice positive divergences in the indicators, so I’ll add that as well. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday

The final list of double screened output for last week resulted in 13 charts with multiple buy signals, and 35 with more than one sell signal. That’s surprising considering Friday’s strength, but the field of buy signals from earlier in the week was tiny.

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These numbers remain very small relative to the universe of more than 10,000 screened stocks. The low output continues to reflect a rangebound market with no motive thrust either way. It’s a meatgrinder market. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Looking at Friday on a standalone basis there were 47 buy signals and 21 sell signals. Again, these are relatively low numbers. Just as the sell side edge was too small to get excited about last week, the same is true of the buy side edge this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Regardless, my task is to unearth trading opportunities, so I undertook the usual visual review of the charts that met the multiple signal criteria. The buy signals all looked like rangebound setups that were only good for a scalp at best. I said, “Skip it.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

The sell side was no better. Most of the charts were too ambiguous to do anything. They still look a few weeks away from good short side setups. So we sit tight this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. I would hope to continue that, but it is by no means a given.

June’s performance is not something we should expect to duplicate too often, if at all. The average weekly gain since I tweaked the methodology in mid January is just 1.29%, while trending upward lately. Non-subscribers click here for access.

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week. There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase

The cycle setup this week is a picture of juxtaposition, with the edge to the bulls. That’s because a hybrid of the two longer cycles seems to be in the bottoming process here. But short term cycles are mixed and opposed to one another. That suggests that the market won’t be able to get out of its own way. xxxx is more likely than a xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.

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Third Rail Channels –   The market is “triangulating.”  XXXX is the critical level. A close above that would open the way for a move to the XXXX area. On the other hand, a close below XXXX on Monday would keep the sharpest downtrend channel intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – A weekly close above XXXX this week would signal a 6 month and possible 10-12 month cycle upturn. The target would then be around XXXX. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term downside cycle projections have already been reached but it’s too early to conclude that these downside projections are final. I will give more weight to classical technical indicator positions and trends such as a conventional measured move target of xxxx-xxxx. However, a 6 month and 10-12 month cycle up phase should xxxxx for a xxxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxxx lasting into xxxxxxxxxxxxxx-xxxxxxxxxxr.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart – Breaking xxxx in July could send the SPX hurtling toward the next major support line at xxxx. Conversely, if they stay above xxxx, there’s room to run to around xxxx in July. Non subscribers click here to access

Long term momentum remains on a sell signal and is now sitting just above the bottom of a 3 year uptrend channel. Closing any month below that line would be another long term bearish signal. .Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – The short term pattern is xxxxxxx. The intermediate pattern has bipolar disorder. I’m a liquidity analyst, not a shrink. I won’t try to make sense of it. However, a couple of the moving average indicators for these measures are now at pivotal points on their charts. If this morning’s market xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If this rally is a bottle rocket and the market ends lower through Tuesday, the xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx . Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time

The setup for both bond and stock market bulls will be as good as it gets for the next 3 weeks. So don’t be fooled. Get ready to do some more selling, or short selling, if you’re of that disposition.

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The US Treasury announced in its May Quarterly Refunding statement that it wanted to hold $650 billion in its cash account at the end of Q3. After the April tax windfall, its cash had risen to nearly $1 trillion, so it had to whittle that down by redeeming T-bills. Each month it paid down $100 billion or more of existing T-bills to reach its goal. Finally, last week the Treasury hit the mark. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Based on recent trends I had projected that this would happen in July, and that when it did, the T-bill paydowns would end. Last week the Treasury announced that on June 19 it would issue $15 billion in net new bills its first new bill issuance since just before the April tax windfall began. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

It’s the beginning of the middle of the end. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This report looks at the trends in Treasury cash, Fed RRPs, the TBACs Treasury supply schedule, and the technical charts of interest rates and bond yields to review how we got here, and estimate how it all plays out, based on known facts and government issuance schedules. And I suggest what you can do about it to protect yourself and play what’s to come. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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More Bad News Ahead for the Golden Boys

The 6-7 week cycle low is overdue and the 4 week cycle low was due yesterday, but everything else says there’s more bad news ahead.

The mining stocks look no better. For the past week, there were just 2 charts with final buy signals after earlier ones, and 4 with  a final sell after earlier sell signals. Those low numbers suggest no thrust, but the downtrend is well established. In the week before there were 22 with multiple sell signals.  Here’s what I’m doing now.

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