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Lots of Sell Signals But No New Picks From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

This Friday’s screens had just 8 buy signals and 48 sell signals. Despite all the sell signals, the charts were messy and uninteresting from a swing trade perspective either way. The market has had no thrust on the upside, and still none on the downside. 1268 stocks met the initial screening criteria. 96% of stocks are either already moving in the direction of the most recent signal, whether up, down or sideways, mostly sideways.

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The only thing really interesting in these signals was that ten of them were fixed income ETFs. They’re not movers and not really candidates for trades, but that sure stinks of bear you know what.

To put things in technical parlance, Friday’s charts were a “mishmosh.” Despite all the sell signals, I didn’t see anything that looked like a setup for a big decline right here. Maybe after the next bounce, but not now. I want to be patient until I see a clearer path to the downside. Right now, there’s no path either way.

Already open picks (list and current performance in subscriber version) had an average gain of 1.5% with an average holding period of 12 days. That’s down from the prior week’s 2.5% on an average holding period of 15 calendar days.

The picks that I added a couple of weeks ago have done fine. The ones last week… not so much. I’ve added stops to all of them. With no new picks this week, there are still 13 open picks. All are again longs. Charts below (subscriber version only).

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Here’s Why “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur” Won’t Work This Year

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From a time perspective, the 10-12 month cycle ideally should be in a top phase. But it surpassed its last cycle projection of 4440 so it is probably in trending mode. Both the 6 month cycle and the 13 week cycles appear to be trending.

Short term cycles are in up phases. The 4 week cycle is currently the only one where it’s possible to make a projection. It’s xxxx (subscriber version only).

On the weekly chart, 3-4 year cycle momentum exploded to its strongest level since 2014. This is another sign that the market could trend higher for longer. In the short term, there’s a trendline convergence around xxxx (subscriber version only). that is likely to be the target of this move.

With the market beginning to create a little separation from the trendline at 4400, the long term cycle projections of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version only) are looking more and more realistic, with highs due between now and next year.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 ended August at or above long term trend resistance around 4500. This suggests more upside.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures strengthened. This confirms the trend and suggests another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Take the Threat of this Triple Whammy Seriously Now

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The stock and bond markets face a triple whammy at the end of this month. In this report I’ll show you what those three things are, why and how they will impact the market and what you should do about it (subscriber version only). These three things coming together as soon as xxxxxx (subscriber version only) will pose a grave threat to the Treasury market, to short term interest rates, and ultimately to the stock market.

Here’s What Happens When Gold’s Cycles Are at Cross Purposes

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It’s decision time for this rally as gold rests in the downtrend area around 1810. The 6-7 week cycle projection is xxxx (subscriber version only), but they would need to push through resistance around xxxx (subscriber version). Cycles remain at cross purposes, which is conducive to xxxxxxxxxxxxx (subscriber version) .

HUI needs to clear xxx (subscriber version)  to complete an intermediate term bottom. If successful, the measuring implication would be around xxx.

Today’s screen yielded only 1 short term buy signal. Yesterday’s downtick began triggering sells with 6 of the 52 stocks in the screen flipping sell side switches. The intermediate trend structures still hold the prospect of a near term upturn. So I’ll stick with the 5 charts on the list (subscriber version), but won’t add any new ones today.

This report includes the cycle projections for short to long term time frames, and swing trade mining picks. Get ready for the big move now!

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Chart Picks – 8 New Picks From Last Week’s Swing Trade Screens

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This Friday’s screens had 46 buy signals and 5 sell signals. Two of the sell signals were on inverse ETFs, making the actual score 48 to 3 in favor of the bulls. This still indicates little thrust for the market as a whole. But it’s more than last week and it shows even less drag. Given that 1270 stocks met the initial screening criteria, 96% of stocks are either already moving in the direction of the most recent signal, which is to say, up.

The charts that I liked enough to add to the list on the long side as of Monday’s open are xxx, xxx, xxx, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, (and similar but one is enough), xxxx, and xxxx (in subscriber version only). Charts below (subscriber version).

Previous picks, including those closed last week and still open on Friday, had an average gain of 2.5% with an average holding period of 15 days. That’s little changed from the prior week’s 2.3% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days.

Three picks were stopped out last week and one I set to be covered on the open last Monday. That left 5 open picks. All are again longs, after having a token short or two for a couple of weeks. All 8 new picks are also longs. After a couple of months of few picks, we’re finally getting back to the normal complement of 12-16.

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Here are the Keys to More Upside as Cycles Get Back In Sync

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Cycles are in gear to the upside, but there are no projections yet. A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due by xxxx (subscriber version only). But the indicators appear to be in trending mode for that cycle. This could turn into an epic blowoff, or just fizzle out.

Either way, we need to be on our toes. If 10-12 month cycle indicators and the market averages break this week or next, it should be a top. But my operating assumption must still be that the trend will continue until a clear break. Anticipating such a break is a bad idea. The market gives no awards for being early. Just don’t be too late. Our antenna is up.

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The 6 month cycle doesn’t appear to be set up to allow for an extended decline. But a short, sharp break is possible at any time in September. We’ll be on the lookout for the signs.

The 13 week cycle appears to have begun a new up phase ideally due to last xxxx xxxx. (subscriber version only)

On the third rail chart, a cluster of support lines starts the week at xxxx  and rises to around xxxx (subscriber version only) at the end of the week. There’s a second cluster of parallel rising trendlines about 40 points below that that should mark support if the first set breaks. The market would need to break both those to start even a semblance of a reversal.

On the weekly chart, with the market beginning to create a little separation from the trendline at xxxx (subscriber version only), the long term cycle projections of xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version only) are looking more and more realistic, with highs due between xxxx xxxx and xxxx xxxx.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 look set to end August at or above long term trend resistance around 4500. If it does that, it would suggest more upside.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures strengthened. This confirms the trend and suggests another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

QE Still = 100% of Treasury Issuance, But Coming Change = Crash

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The Treasury is rapidly exhausting its cash as it continues to pay down T-bills. At this rate, it will run out of cash xxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (in subscriber report). Congress will then be forced to raise the debt ceiling.

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The Treasury will need to issue immense amounts of new debt to repay the internal accounts it raided, and to rebuild its cash account to the TBAC recommended level of $400 billion.

For the past month, and until the debt ceiling is lifted, Fed QE has been covering and will cover 100% of new Treasury issuance. That’s a short term bullish factor for bonds and stocks as it keeps pumping cash into the dealer and other institutional accounts that had been the holders of the T-bills being redeemed.

In fact, it’s surprising that the stock rally has been so muted, and that the bond rally has stopped in its tracks over the past 6 weeks. That’s because corporations have been rushing to issue new equity and new debt to take advantage of the high prices they can get. This is free money to them.

Once the Treasury begins to issue new debt, it will be on top of this gigantic wave of corporate supply. It won’t be pretty.

It also won’t be immediate. I estimate that by the time the debt ceiling is lifted and the Treasury supply tsunami starts, the Fed’s RRP slush fund will reach xxxx (subscribers only). That’s how much new Treasury debt can be issued before the crisis becomes apparent.

We have some time. And we have the meters of the Fed’s RRP slush fund account, and the schedule of new Treasury issuance, as well as the QE schedule. If the Fed chooses to reduce that schedule, that’s their problem, and the market’s.

But it won’t be ours. Because we’ll be actively watching, with situational awareness. We’ll be prepared to take advantage with enough advance notice to act accordingly. Here’s our current situational awareness update.

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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

This Could Be the Start of Something Big for Gold

Gold is on the cusp of signaling a possible intermediate cycle low. A daily close above the trendlines at xxxx (subscribers only) would be a good start to confirming that. Short term cycles are in up phases, with a new projection of xxxx (subscribers only). That suggests that something bigger is afoot. But a failure to clear xxxx would be a warning sign that the down phases in the 9-12 month and 13 week cycles are not yet complete.

This report includes the cycle projections for short to long term time frames, and 4 new swing trade mining picks to add to the one already on the list. Get ready for the big move now!

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Chart Picks – 4 New Picks From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

This Friday’s screens had 27 buy signals and 3 sell signals. This indicates no thrust for the market as a whole. But it shows even less drag. Given that over 1200 stocks met the initial screening criteria, most stocks are either trending or drifting in a range.

I did like a number of the setups, and will add 4 picks to the list on the long side as of Monday’s open. These are xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, and xxxx. Charts below (shown in subscriber report).

Previous open picks ended the week with an average gain of 2.3% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. Two picks were stopped out last week. One will be closed as of the opening price on Monday. That leaves 4 open picks. Three are longs. One is a short.

Get the newest picks and review their charts and those of existing picks in today’s report. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. 

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Here are the Keys as the Stock Market Trend is Intact, But on Edge

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Cycles still have an upward bias. But a 10-12 month cycle high is now ideally due within xxxx xxxx (in subscriber version).  The next sharp break to the downside should mark the xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) of the 10-12 month and 6 month cycles.

The 13 week cycle appears to have made a xxxx (subscriber version) last week. That could spell xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) for what should be the final days of the 10-12 month cycle up phase.

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On the third rail chart a key intermediate term channel and a long term channel held. Trend support rises from xxxx-xxxx (in subscriber report), with a second support line just below that. Both would need to be broken to signal reversal.

On the weekly chart, xxxx is a very important level this week. If they close below it, it should mark the beginning of top formation for this cycle. However, it would be unlikely to be the highest high. Long term cycle projections point to xxxx-xxxx with highs due between xxxx and xxxx (subscribers only).

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 would need to end August below 4200 to signal a potential reversal of the uptrend. If the SPX clears long term trend resistance around xxxx, the target would rise to 4600.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures weakened but the intermediate remains tenuously bullish. Weakness this week could reverse that. Strength will confirm the trend and suggest another extension.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted Monday morning.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!  

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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