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A Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull

The stock market looks even more oversold versus macro liquidity than it was in August. So, no surprise, it, and the bond market have both been rallying for a couple of weeks.

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But is the market really oversold? I don’t think so. Bull market oversold parameters are one thing. Bear markets have different parameters. Remember that it required massive liquidity growth just to keep stocks on a bull trend. That growth became insufficient to support bull markets in both stocks and bonds since mid 2020. That’s because the US Government was sucking up almost all of the Fed’s QE. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Now the Fed not only isn’t funding that, it’s pulling money out of the banking system that would have been available to support new Treasury supply. At the same time, it’s causing the Treasury to have to issue even more supply, so that it can redeem the Fed’s expiring holdings on which it now wants repayment. That causes forced liquidation of all asset classes, not just bonds. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So in order for the market to be truly oversold in this new ballgame, how low must it go? We don’t know. I’ve made a shadow channel on the chart as a first guess. But it’s really a wild guess. We just don’t know how deep a selloff will result in enough of an oversold condition to generate a rally that lasts more than a month, let alone a major bottom. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

There are other ways we can look at this data that may be instructive, but for now, we’re even more in the dark than usual. Meanwhile, everyone who is guessing about a Fed pivot can go right ahead and be my guest. Because, as we all know, money moves market trends. Talk is only good for blips. Try to catch them at your own risk.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In this report, I update our regular look at the big picture liquidity indicators that will tell us exactly in what direction, and when, the markets will make their next big moves. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Why You Should Stay Skeptical of Bullish Technical Signs

Yes, there are plenty of bullish signs on the charts. For the short to intermediate term, that’s ok. It’s good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like it. But it violates Rule Number One, the First Commandment, “Thou shalt not fight the Fed!”

Cue thunderbolt.

However, on this side of the Liquidity Trader stable, we focus on the technical, and it has gotten more bullish. Trust but verify, right?

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Cycles-   Despite the rally, the 10-12 month cycle is still due to start topping out xxxx xxxx, with the top phase lasting through xxxxxxxxx. The new projection of xxxx was already hit xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx, at the beginning of the up phase. The current attempt should see resistance between xxxx and xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Meanwhile, 6 month cycle indicators xxxxxxx xxxxxxx indicated an up phase. The October low was xxxxxx xxxxx  for a low on that cycle, but perhaps the 6 month and 13 week cycles have merged into a hybrid of around xxx months duration. If so, the high would be due in xxxxxxxxxx, concurrent with the 10-12 month cycle high. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail  The market ran right to the top of the short term uptrend channel it had set up the week before. That top line rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. The magic number on FOMC day on Wednesday is xxxx. If they get above that, they’ll blow the roof off to xxxx by the end of the week. If they drop under xxxx, then we’re likely to see xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

The breakout from the base that formed over the past month has a conventional measured move target of xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   A weekly close above xxxx would break the 6 month cycle line, signaling an up phase in that cycle, with an initial target of around xxxx on this chart. Failure to be clear of xxxx at the end of the week would suggest that the 6 month cycle down phase remains intact. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Trend resistance will begin November at xxxx, after it appears that the SPX will end October above expected resistance around xxxx.Non subscribers click here to access.

Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  The cycle screening aggregate rose sharply last week. Indicator patterns have xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx intermediate term, and possibly xxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Swing Trade Screens – Operation Extrication

The stock market has been a rangebound mess for a month and a day. I call these periods meat grinders for obvious reasons. This kind of market environment has the potential crush swing trade strategies. I failed to recognize this one, and I got us caught in a vicious whipsaw last week. Forget post mortems. The only goal now is to make the best of a bad situation. Non-subscribers click here for access.

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For the week ended October 21, there were 56 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, and 59 with second or third sell signals. I visually reviewed the charts, in both groups, and saw mostly rangebound whipsaw signals. I was certainly not about to add any shorts to the list. I only liked two charts on the buy side and added those as shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The rest of the charts with buy signals had uninspiring patterns. Non-subscribers click here for access.

All open picks are shown on the table below with charts following. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

Technical Signs Say Doubt This Rally

Friday’s rally felt impressive on top of last week’s backing and filling. But the technical indicators haven’t kept up. That could all change on Monday, but as of Friday’s close, there were still plenty of reasons for skepticism.

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Cycles-  The expected 13 week cycle up phase is xxxx xxxxx . But it’s not yet clear if it will have enough momo to xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 6 month cycle down phase. Monday’s action could go a long way toward answering that question.  The 6 month cycle projection has dropped to xxxx. I’ll respect the projection until the market clears resistance at xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail   A new uptrend channel centerline rises from xxxx to xxxx this week. They’d need to at least break that to signal an end to this phase of the rally. Non subscribers click here to access.

There’s a trend resistance convergence around xxxx. If cleared, they’d have running room for an immediate move to xxxx. If not cleared, then keep an eye on the downtrend line that drops from xxxx to xxxx this week. Likewise, dropping below xxxx would suggest a fast move to at least xxxx, and if that breaks, then to xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   The 18 month – 2 year cycle is has a projection of xxxx, and an idealized bottoming window that starts xxxx and lasts through xxxx xxxx. The 3-4 year cycle has a huge likely bottoming window from xxxx  until xxxx xxxx, with a current projection of xxxx to xxxx. Conclusion, anything goes, with the least likely outcome being a xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx soon. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  Still negative overall but with potential early warning signs of a xx xxxx xxxx xxxx  forming over the next 2-3 weeks. The setup could xxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. A little weakness early this week xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Signs of an Intermediate Bottom in Gold

Gold has made a double bottom that looks consistent with the expected 13 week cycle low due in this time window.

The gold mining stocks’ swing trade chart pick screens produced 26 charts with second or third buy signals on Thursday and Friday, versus zero sells. That means that 52% of the screened stocks produced buy signals versus none on the sell side. So I reviewed the 26 charts, expecting to finally find a few to list as buys for Monday morning.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Bears Beware, Treasury Buybacks Will Turn the Markets, Sooner Not Later

Watch out! The US Treasury is now in the process of actively discussing buying back outstanding Treasury notes and bonds in an effort to bolster the collapsing bond market.

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As reported by Bloomberg:

The specific step taken by the Treasury was in its quarterly survey of primary dealers, released Friday in connection with the financing plan to be announced Nov. 2. The 25 dealers were asked for a detailed assessment of the merits and limitations of a buyback program for government securities. When the last financing plan was released in August, the department’s industry advisers on the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee recommended further analysis of the issue. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/momentum-builds-creation-treasury-bond-174307311.html

The Treasury is holding $650 billion in its cash account at the Fed. This “rainy day fund” was set aside for just such occasions. And let’s not kid ourselves. When big government agencies start talking about doing something, it’s as good as done. This is going to happen, and when it does, it will push bond prices higher. And that will also give stocks a lift. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So the questions are when and how much. As to when, the big boys are publicly speculating that it will be early next year. But looking at the bond market crash, and knowing what we know about Primary Dealer positions, leverage, hedging, and the crashing bond market, it will certainly be xxxxxxx, perhaps xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, a couple of my hot takes on the Bloomberg piece. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Liquidity metrics for the US government debt market are approaching crisis levels after a year of steep losses for bonds caused by rising inflation and Federal Reserve interest-rate increases, and with the central bank simultaneously cutting some of its holdings, the situation may worsen. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concern about it last week.

Duh. Like I haven’t been reporting this for the past 2 years. And they’re just getting around to recognizing it. Geeze. They’re the rocket scientists. I just have a sixth grade education (I went to Temple) and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Taken together with Yellen’s recent comments and extreme volatility in the UK bond market in recent weeks, the query suggests “that the November refunding will likely show more progress toward opening a buyback facility,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. rates strategists said in an Oct. 14 research note. Strategists at Bank of America Corp. predicted a rollout in May 2023.

Are you kidding me? May 2023? The markets will have ceased to exist by then. I predict (in my best Amazing Kreskin voice) xxxxxxx xxx, or maybe xxxx xxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Under current circumstances, which include large federal deficits, a buyback program would have different purposes. They include adding liquidity to parts of the market most in need of it, and allowing Treasury bills to be sold in more consistent quantities, with proceeds used for buybacks of securities less in demand.

That’s just BS. The purpose is to stop and reverse the bond market crash, however temporarily. And we know that it will be temporary. The effect will end when they run out of cash. Which will be at whatever level of cash they feel they need to hold. We don’t know what that is. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Furthermore, once they get to that point, and the market has rallied because of their buying, they’ll start borrowing again to build up their cash account back toward their magic number of $650 billion. Once they start to do that, it would reverse the bullish effects of the buybacks. So prepare for a roll coaster ride over the xx-xx months following the beginning of the program. First bond prices will soar and yields will come down. Then prices will rollover, and finally crash again with yields rising in tandem. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

On the other hand, when the Treasury is finished buying, the Fed awaits to take the handoff. It has not only the possibility to return to QE, which is unlikely as a first step, it has the $2.2 trillion RRP slush fund that it could force back into the markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Who knows where the Fed will be in its QT program by the time the Treasury cash for the buyback program effectively runs out.? If the PCE and CPI numbers cool enough, they’ll probably stop QT. That looks likely to happen in the next xx months based on past lead time between changes in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet and inflation data. I’ve covered that in a previous report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But I want to reiterate that it is not productive to guess and try to front run these things. Despite conventional wisdom that says otherwise, markets respond to money, not talk. Trade the charts, and invest based on actual macro liquidity flows. In that respect, we are not at a xxxxxxx xxxxx yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, the government has piles of cash that could be used to light a bullish fire under securities prices. One is the aforementioned Treasury cash account, and the other is the Fed’s money market fund of money market funds, its unlimited Overnight Reverse Repo (RRP) program. When they use those they could ignite bull runs that will look like bull markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Treasury and Fed money are demand side impacts. Then there’s always the issue of supply.  On the Treasury Supply front, keep in mind that the updated TBAC forecast for the current quarter and advance forecast for Q1 of 2023 will be released the week of November 2. They’ll give us a roadmap on what to expect for the subsequent 4½ months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In this report, I describe what’s likely in the months ahead, and suggest what you might do about it to defend yourself, or even take advantage. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Swing Trade Screens – Overloaded on the Short Side

Over the 4 days since I last posted the swing trade screens update, the S&P 500 is virtually unchanged. The 8 picks I posted on Tuesday morning, all shorts, have gained an average of 5%. So there’s a possibility that we’re on the right track by being only on the short side here.

I better be, because I’m adding 8 more shorts to the list this week. And I have decided to extend the stopless period from the usual one week to two.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

10/3/22 Looking at the scoreboard, September showed an average gain of 3.3%, on an average holding period of 13 calendar days. All of the 17 picks closed out in September have been shorts. Of the 16 picks closed in August, 11 were buys and 5 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

9/5/22 16 picks were closed out in August. The average gain was 3.4% with an average holding period of 2 weeks. Since last November, when I last tweaked the screening and selection methodology, 108 picks were closed out with an average gain of 2.9% and an average holding period of 17 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

8/1/22 In July … Only two picks were closed out during the month for an average loss of 2.6%. Non-subscribers click here for access

7/4/22 Picks closed out in June averaged a gain of 10.1% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. That works out to an average of 4.1% per week. There were 12 closed picks. The win rate was 75%. Non-subscribers click here for access

6/6/22 Picks closed out in May averaged a gain of 3% on an average holding period of 2 weeks. That worked out to an average of 1.5% per week.  There were 28 closed picks. 25 were shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access

5/9/22 April was a challenging month. The final tally of closed picks in April had an average loss of 0.4% with an average holding period of 11 calendar days. My system does not do well when the average low to low cycle duration drops below 4 weeks. Non-subscribers click here for access

March was better. Picks closed in March had an average gain of 4% with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

On the Edge of the Abyss, Can the Market Fly?

The market is poised to do something big this week. There’s the increased likelihood of a 13 week cycle upturn to give a little lift. But if they fail to get off the ground, a breakdown below xxxx could lead to a resumption of the crash.

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Cycles-   The 6 month cycle remains in a strong down phase. It has a new cycle projection of xxxx, with a low ideally due in xxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxx xxxxxx. That should skew continue to skew xxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xx So while an upturn in the 13 week cycle is xxxxxxxx xxxxxx, it shouldn’t xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail  The market confirmed an intermediate downtrend channel. The top line starts the week at xxxx and has a downslope of xx PPD to bring it near xxxx at the end of the week. They’d need to clear that to break the worst phase of this downtrend. Then they would need to clear xxxx to start a rally. More resistance would then await in the xxxx area. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart –   The 18 month – 2 year cycle is has a projection of xxxx, and an idealized bottoming window that starts xxxx and lasts through xxxx xxxx. The 3-4 year cycle has a huge likely bottoming window from xxxx  until xxxx xxxx, with a current projection of xxxx to xxxx. Conclusion, anything goes, with the least likely outcome being a xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx soon. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –   Long term momentum has reached a critical level that could either indicate a major bottom if it turns up, or a secular bear market if it continues lower. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures –  Still negative overall but with potential early warning signs of a xx xxxx xxxx xxxx  forming over the next 2-3 weeks. The setup could xxx xxxxx xxxxxxx. A little weakness early this week xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

We Now Know When and Where Gold Will Bottom

My call last week of a 13 week cycle upturn was premature, but bottom formation now appears under way in that cycle. Other short term lows are projected between now and xxxx xxxxxxx with a 4 week cycle projection of xxxx. A little further out, a 9-12 month cycle low now appears due between xxxxxxxx x and xxxxxxxx x at a projection of xxxx.

As far as mining stocks are concerned, the screens again produced zilch this week, so we sit and wait empty handed again for a better looking entry. That’s been the right strategy in recent weeks.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse

The PPI reading on Wednesday includes data which now enables us to project when the Fed will stop raising the Fake Funds rate. I call it fake because it merely mimics the market, but isn’t actually the short term money market. Nevertheless it’s what the Fed and the Street want you to pay attention to, and it’s what most sheep do pay attention to. I say Bah!

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I was able to make this projection using a highly sophisticated algorithm developed by artificial intelligence, that being my brain drawing trendlines. It’s a technique that I have developed over my nearly 60 years of studying technical analysis, including 40 years of computer generated analysis. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Naturally this formula is far too simple, direct and obvious to be recognized by the high priests of Economism. But I have spent my life specializing in simple, direct, and obvious, which is all that I am capable of. And so, I will attempt to the best of my ability to illustrate it for you. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Using this secret algorithm I was able to determine that the Fed should announce a pause in rate increases next xxxxxxx. The market will briefly celebrate that, but that will be a big mistake. Because the Fed has never actually raised rates and rates aren’t the problem. They are a symptom. The market has driven rates up and the Fed has rubber stamped that, while never quite getting to where the market already was. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Now, for the illustration of how xxxxxxx was projected to be the point at which the Fed decides to pause. xxxxxx is when the trend of the Fed raising the Fake Funds rate intersects with a somewhat likely trend of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

CHART Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I use the just reported PPI for core final demand consumer goods (PPI-CFDCG) as a leading indicator of where the PCE is likely to be headed. The PPI-CFDCG dropped from an annual rate of +8.5% to +8% in September. This was the first decline in this series, which tends to lead CPI and the Fed’s favorite measure, core PCE, by anywhere from 3 to 12 months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Note that this downturn follows the beginning of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening or QT, by 6 months. That’s also normal. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I then drew a trendline extrapolating this downturn into the future. The validity of doing that is supported by the fact that the upswing rose on nearly a straight line basis as it followed Fed pandemic era QE with a lag of about 6 months. As goes the money supply, so goes inflation, the one thing that Milton Friedman got right. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

By the way, “inflation,” doesn’t mean only consumer prices. Inflation is classically defined as a rise in the general level of prices. General means everything. That includes asset prices. Modern priests of Economism exclude asset prices from the definition of inflation, so that they can conveniently ignore the jillion percent increase in asset inflation we’ve seen over the past 13 years. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The only inflation they accepted as real was consumer price inflation. And that is utter nonsense. The refusal to recognize asset price inflation as an element of general inflation is at the very crux of the intractable problem we face today. Now we must pay the price for that willful ignorance. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

So now we see the impact of reducing money supply on both types of inflation. The problem the central banks have in their drive to reduce consumer price inflation is that asset prices react immediately and directly to tightening money supply. Consumer prices react with a lag. Asset prices, both stocks and bonds, have already collapsed. Consumer prices haven’t budged yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

And now we can see that this process will continue for months. It has the potential to cause unfathomable financial destruction. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This is a huge problem for Wall Street. Because of the nature of the Fed’s inflation fight, the tightening of money supply versus rising money demand, is absolutely destroying asset prices in a process that will continue until the Fed stops tightening. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Again, the Fed Funds rate is irrelevant. To halt the downtrend in asset prices, the Fed must stop reducing the money supply and must start increasing it again by an amount sufficient to absorb almost all Treasury issuance.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The Fed pretends that it will only stop tightening when the Funds rate that it sets every 6 weeks is supposedly neutral. The Fed’s focus is on the PCE, and the PCE follows the curve of the PPI finished core consumer goods series by a few months, at a lower level. We can therefore project the trend of PCE by mimicking our favorite PPI trend as I showed in the chart above. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In so doing, the falling core PCE would meet the rising Fed Funds rate in xxxxxx. The Fed will yell “Pause” in a crowded theater, and everybody will rush into the market. There will be a buying panic when that happens. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But the buying panic will quickly die and the collapse of asset prices will resume unless the Fed also reverses from QT back to QE. Because the money market would otherwise continue to tighten, and short term rates would resume rising. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The markets get a break in xxxxxxx because the US Treasury xxxxxx xxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxx then. That enables the Treasury to pay down T-bills in xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxx x xxxxxxxx.  This will take the pressure off the money market for a few weeks in this coming xxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But supply pressure will explode in xxxxxxx because the xxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx that month, while at the same time tax revenue xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxpoints of the year. The government’s cash need will soar, and so will its short term borrowing. At that point the markets are very likely to crash again. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I say again, because the supply demand imbalance in the financial markets between now and xxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx will be the worst it has been in this market. There will be immense pressure on asset prices for the next xxx months. The conditions for a crash are in place. That may force the Fed to act weeks before it gets Fed Funds to a so-called “neutral” rate, which looks like x.x%. A xx and a xx would get us there. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Surprise, surprise, surprise! This is essentially the consensus outlook. But so what! Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The destruction of stock and bond prices will be epic by the time this rate path is complete in January.  Might that be enough for the Fed’s resolve to crack before they’ve gotten to x.x%? Of course. Or might the Fed hold out until that x.x% rate is reached? Sure. We just don’t know. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But remember, the Fed merely follows market interest rates, such as on the 13 week T-bill. That rate is merely a meter of just how tight the money market supply-demand balance is. And it is the imbalance of supply of securities over effective demand for them that causes falling prices, and their mirror, rising short term rates and bond yields. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The dynamic of prices trending lower WILL NOT CHANGE until the Fed reverses from QT, back to QE. And it must do so in enough size to once again absorb most Treasury issuance as it did during the 12 years of the bull markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Anything less than aggressive QE will not end the bear markets in stocks and bonds. It may alter their courses. It will generate rallies on the bear market slope of hope. But it will not end the bear markets. That would take a massive policy reversal by the Fed. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The other thing to keep in mind is that it will do us absolutely no good to anticipate this so called Fed “pivot.” Markets turn on money flows. The bear market will end when the Fed supplies enough money to end it. Any speculation on when it will end, even if the guess is correct, will hold no advantage whatsoever. What’s the point of being early? Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Buy the markets when the monetary facts change. Not before. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Simple, direct, obvious.

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