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Gold Hits Melting Point

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Gold has broken trend support and is taking aim at the next support level around xxxx. This does not bode well for an upside breakout on the next rally. But if they hold above xxxx, the outlook would still be moderately bullish for the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx period. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The outlook for the mining stocks is no better. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Ready for Blast Off or Dive Dive!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

The pick list is currently treading water, consistent with the market as a whole. It currently shows an average gain of 0.3% on an average holding period of 15 calendar days, including currently open picks and those that have hit stops over the past week. Yawn. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

1/9/24 Meanwhile, last year ended well with picks closed in December averaging a gain of 12.8%, with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. This was the best monthly performance since I started this exercise 3 years ago. The tweaks applied over that time have trended in the right direction but there have been less satisfactory months too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So far in January, closed picks have had an average gain of 4.4% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Over the past two trading sessions there were 46 charts with a second buy signal on the week, and 161 with a second sell signal. That looks bearish on the surface, but when I reviewed those 161 charts, I did not see many that appeared to have near term downside potential. Instead, most looked like rangebound mush, or at a potential bounce point. Ultimately, I liked 2 charts on the buy side and 5 on the sell side, and added them to the list as shown on the table below. That will leave 17 open picks – 8 buys and 9 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I will start tracking the new picks based on a price assuming a half position at the open and half at the close today, January 17, 2024. I have added or adjusted stops on most of the picks. See the current stop levels on the table. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Weekly Bank Data and Fed Balance Sheet Say the End is Nigh

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If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

Bank deposits, repo borrowing, and the Fed’s RRP facility have been the fuels for the rally. There are strong correlations between them and stock prices. In the past two weeks they’ve reached an inflection point. Depending on how they break, we should get a signal on the most likely intermediate term direction of stock prices. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

However, liquidity only establishes market context. Technical analysis of price trends shows action and timing. Context helps us to better understand the timing indicators when they are ambiguous. I cover that in the Technical Trader reports. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Stock Market Is Having Irving Fisher Moment

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

The stock market has apparently reached a permanently high plateau over the past 3 weeks, and it looks like it could continue resting for months to come. But there’s an outside chance of a pop to a new high as soon as this week. This report tells what to look for, how high it should go, and when. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Gold Outlook Increasingly Hopeless

Gold is in a delicate spot after pulling back to trend support around xxxx.  Breaking this area would put the latest 13-week cycle projection of 1xxxx in quick reach. That would also suggest that the high is in on the xxxxx xxxxx cycle. If the xxxx area holds, then one more rally would be in play before that cycle peaks.

The outlook for the mining stocks isn’t much better. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Market Lacks Conviction, But 3 New Picks Have Potential

My picks are starting off the new year on the wrong foot, but I want to give them a bit more rope before concluding that all those sell signals at the end of December were wrong. Meanwhile, last year ended well with picks closed in December averaging a gain of 12.8%, with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. This was the best monthly performance since I started this exercise 3 years ago. The tweaks applied over that time have trended in the right direction but there have been less satisfactory months too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

For the first week of the new year, closed picks have had an average gain of 6.1% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Currently open picks and those that have hit stops over the past week have an average loss of 1.6% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Over the past two trading sessions there were 41 charts with a second buy signal on the week, and 49 with a second sell signal. Not a ringing endorsement for a directional market, but I reviewed the charts for promising patterns, nevertheless. I liked 3 charts on the buy side and added them to the list as shown on the table below. I did not like any of the sells. There are enough shorts on the list already, and we need a reset for those to avoid hitting the stops I set. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Nothing is Broken

At least not yet.  Here’s what to expect until something breaks, and what to expect when it does. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

Critical Pullback for Gold

xxxx is a support level but breaking it wouldn’t be catastrophic. Holding at that level would enhance bullish potential. Breaking the next projected support level of xxxx would be a bad sign that would suggest a move at least to the current early 13-week cycle projection of xxxx. Longer term charts suggest that it could get worse if that happens. Here are the particulars, and an update on swing trade chart picks.    Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

US Economy Didn’t Crash in December?

Yesterday I posted a report on the plunge in the withholding data. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

That conclusion may not have been correct. A reader brought to my attention that there was apparently a tax law effect. Another tax tracking service estimated that the effect of this change was 17%, so that there would have been a net year to year gain of 6.1%. This would have been the rate of change, in the absence of the effect of deferment of withholding in the prior year due to pandemic relief legislation. December 2022 was the giveback.

In reviewing the data, I noted that there was a 21% surge in year to year withholding tax collections in December 2022. You can see that on the withholding tax chart in the report. Non-subscribers, click here for access. Therefore the effect of the tax deferment may well have been 17%, or close to it. The analysis of that impact appears to be accurate.

Assuming the adjusted figure of a year to year gain 6.1% is correct, then the real growth rate would have been 2% based on recent BLS earnings inflation reported at 4%.  The adjusted data presented in the other report claims that withholding growth was equivalent to the BEA rate of wage inflation at 6%. That implies zero job growth.

I apologize that my analysis posted yesterday appears to be materially incorrect because of this factor. However, my broad conclusions remain the same. There’s still lots of Treasury supply on the way. The deficit will apparently not grow beyond the official forecast but it remains enormous and isn’t going away.

In January, the effect of the deferred withholding back in December 2021 that was recaptured in December 2022, will be zero. We’ll then get an apples to apples comp. I will provide an interim update on the January year to year change during the month.

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US Economy Crashed in December – Nope, See Update

NOTE! This report has been updated here with important previously overlooked information. 

Withholding taxes plunged in December. They are by far the largest component of Federal tax revenue. This was not an anomaly. It was a continuation of a downtrend that began in November. This trend is a sign of economic weakness, recession, and most importantly, the fact of less revenue than expected. The US Government schedules Treasury issuance on the basis of revenue forecasts. When revenue falls short of the assumption underlying the supply forecast, it means that Treasury supply will increase. Now this will come from an already heavy forecast level in the first quarter. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Despite market expectations of lower interest rates ahead, the Fed is not yet refilling the punchbowl. The existing punchbowl, the Fed’s RRP facility, continues to be drained. It will run out of funds xxxxxxxxz xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxx. Only the timing is at issue. The fall in tax revenues suggests that the day of reckoning will come sooner rather than later. I’m back to projecting xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx, but we’ll adjust that expectation as we determine day by day xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx, and whether RRP slush fund withdrawals are xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxx.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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