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Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc.

Lee Adler

The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system are inching closer to suggesting an end to the stock market rally. But they aren’t there yet. It could still take weeks or months.

It’s better not to attempt to anticipate. Money talks, and markets listen. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Markets also have the ability to create their own money. And that’s what’s been happening in this bull run. The Fed and its cohorts are not the drivers of this, as they were under the 12 year QE regime. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As animal spirits take hold, eventually they turn into manias. And manias create their own liquidity through the magic of leveraged borrowing. As prices of stocks rise, a cycle of rising prices creates more collateral for borrowing, leading to higher prices, and so on.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Of course, manias ultimately lead to crashes. But they continue until they are exhausted. We look for signs of exhaustion both in the technical market data, which I report in the Technical Trader reports, and in the liquidity data that I report here. In this report, I show you exactly what the charts of the data are telling us to expect in the weeks and months ahead. If you know what’s coming, then you can formulate your own strategy and tactics accordingly. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

As I wrote last week, “The end may come quickly, so we need to be prepared and vigilant. Complacency is the trader’s enemy. We must guard against that…” Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Get the report now, for specifics.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Market Flies Blind in Thin Air

Lee Adler

A market in the stratosphere is flying blind, with no cycle projections in either direction. So how do we know whether a stall might be imminent? The short answer is that we don’t. It’s a matter of being on the alert for signs every week. For now, there are only hints that the upside is xxxxxx xxxxxx but xxxxx xxxxx that the downside will xxxxxx xxxxxxxx before another xxxx to end the 10-12 month cycle up phase.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – What to Do With Profitable Week Behind

Lee Adler

Swing trade screens generated 32 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 28 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Thursday. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance improved from the week before. The average gain was 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. It compared with an average gain of 7.4% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days, the previous week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list’s current performance has reached a level where it has maxed out in the past, suggesting some drawdown ahead. But there’s only one outright sell signal. I’m adding a tight stop to that chart. See table below for all particulars. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This morning, I reviewed all of the charts produced by the screens. Here’s what I came up with for the week ahead. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Gold Sets Up For Major Breakout

Lee Adler

The 9-12 month cycle projection now points to xxxx, but a consolidation is due in the short run as the 13-week cycle appears to have topped out for now. The conventional measured move target of the high base breakout xxx xxxx xxxx. For the advance to continue, gold must xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gate keeper are blocking Liquiditytrader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!” THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices

Lee Adler

The Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system still show little sign of an imminent end to the stock market rally. Only the Foreign Central Bank trend is negative, and that on its own isn’t sufficient to turn the market. It needs help, and there’s none to be found. The bulls are running wild. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

As they do, prices of stocks rise. And that creates its own vicious cycle of liquidity creation leading to higher prices, and so on. This is how manias become entrenched. They continue until they are exhausted. We look for signs of exhaustion both in the technical market data, which I report in the Technical Trader reports, and in the liquidity data that I report here. In neither case are there signs that this rally is finished yet. But I’m on the lookout.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The end may come quickly, so we need to be prepared and vigilant. Complacency is the trader’s enemy. We must guard against that.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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How Stocks Can Forestall the Inevitable

Lee Adler

If the rally doesn’t broaden and gain strength this week then it’s probably on its last legs, and set for a big correction. Any broadening this week would forestall that indefinitely.  Here are the specific levels and time frames to watch to know what comes next. . Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February

Lee Adler

Withholding tax collections soared in February to their highest level in 13 months. If this is not just a flash in the pan or data anomaly, it could mean smaller than forecast deficits ahead. Smaller deficits translate to less than expected Treasury supply. But less than expected isn’t less in real terms. Supply will still be huge, and still a problem for the market to digest over the longer term. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

But in the short run, the strongest revenue collection period of the year starts now. Corporate income taxes for last year are due on March 15, and both annual individual and quarterly individual and corporate income taxes are due April 15. Which is why, every year from mid March to late May, the annual revenue windfall leads to paydowns of Treasury bills. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Those paydowns put cash back into the pockets of the holders of the paid down T-bills. That cash figruratively burns holes in the pockets of those entities, mostly professional investors, who then use that cash to buy longer term fixed income paper and yes, stocks. That’s why we normally see a seasonal rally in the stock or bond market, or both, in the spring. The timing varies, but significant strength in April and May is the rule. Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

When the paydowns end and the government starts borrowing heavily again, the markets often sell off.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

So should we expect anything different this year?  Here’s the answer, and an explanation of why that is, and how to take advantage of it.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Liquidity analysis gives us the context, or the map of the general direction where we can expect the markets to head over the next few months. That helps us to better understand the message of the technical charts.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Meanwhile, the Fed’s RRP facility, which has been the source of much of the money contributing to the stock and bond market rallies, continues to be drained. However, the rate of withdrawals has slowed dramatically. As a result, the money in that pot looks likely to last longer than I originally expected, especially if T-bill paydowns increase on the strength of greater than expected revenues. This report also shows you exactly what that means for the markets.  Non-subscribers, click here for access. 

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My List, No New Shorts

Lee Adler

Based on Thursday’s closing prices, the swing trade screens generated 57 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 75 which met all sell criteria. This again suggests that this is a mature up-move, not one in its early stages. However, the margin and total numbers are too small to suggest a broad extended downturn.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

List performance improved from the week before. The average gain was 7.4% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days. That’s versus a gain of 4.8% on an average holding period of 26 days, the previous week. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list’s current recovery is more than sufficient to overtake the net loss on all closeouts in February, which had a net loss of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days. This does not include the 12 remaining open positions currently on the list, which have an average gain of 13.8% on an average holding period of 23 days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This morning, I reviewed all of the charts produced by the screens. I was skeptical about the sell signals since they were mostly from stocks still in uptrends. While some of them will crack, most won’t and I don’t like the odds against shorting stocks in uptrends. The remainder had already been downtrending for months, or were stuck in ranges with multiple whipsaw signals. I skipped those as well. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the buy side, most charts again looked to be too late in the game, but there were 3 that I liked for their potential to be late-stage movers, or long-term breakouts that look likely to extend. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Tracking of the new picks will assume a half position purchase on the opening price and half on the close as of today, March 1. Non-subscribers click here for access.

3 picks hit stops since the last report and 4 others were closed out as of last week’s opening print. I have added or adjusted stops on several of the remaining picks. The rest I’m content to let ride for this week. The table below shows open picks and those closed out last week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

This public report is not the full report.  Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing

Lee Adler

Neither the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data, nor its slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system yet shows any sign of an imminent end to the stock market rally. On the other hand, there’s plenty of evidence of an entrenched mania. And they usually don’t end well. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

We can deduce that the fuel for this rally has several sources. They’re not finite. This is a matter of where there’s a will there’s a way. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Some of it is bond portfolio liquidation. Some is margin. Some is foreign money inflows. None of it is coming from the Fed. This is all about animal spirits, and the power of animal spirits to create money from nothing and stocks for free. Just borrow the money into existence. Or move it from something else, or somewhere else. That can go on and on until the mass psychology exhausts itself. When that happens, it usually does so with a vengeance. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

This process is sustainable until it isn’t. We, like the Fed, are data dependent, and that data includes both the liquidity data and the technical analysis data that I cover in the Technical Trader reports. So far neither set of data is screaming “It’s over!” Until they show signs of topping out simultaneously, we have to let it ride. The theater is crowded, but there’s no point in screaming “Fire!” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

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Charts Say- All Important Monday

Lee Adler

If the rally doesn’t stop right here, it will head for multiple targets over the next few months. Here are those targets and ideal timing. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

Attention New Subscribers! Please check your spam folder for your subscription welcome messages and post notifications and whitelist Liquiditytrader.com. Some email providers like Hotmail and others which use the Proofpoint gatekeeper are blocking Liquidity Trader emails completely. I have been unable to get them to stop. Please notify them to “Let my emails go!”

If you continue to have issues receiving Liquidity Trader emails, just check here daily at 9 AM ET for the latest posts.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

_______________________________________

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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