This report features two charts that tell a coherent and sobering story. Repo financing that has quietly fueled this rally is plateauing in exactly the pattern that has preceded every major correction of the last few years. At the same time, junk bond spreads are sitting within a hair of their tightest levels in three years, which is precisely the condition that leads to an eventual unwind that is violent instead of orderly.
I have warned for months that the wave of Treasury supply set to hit in July would open a window of extraordinary risk. Below, these two charts, which you won’t see anywhere else, show why the calm on the surface is the least reassuring thing about this market.
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The complete 27 page report, with illustrative charts, explains the facts behind the numbers that matter and the fallacies behind the ones that don’t with proprietary charts and tables that you will find nowhere else. Backed by 57 years of observation fiercely independent analysis.
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