Lee AdlerApril has done markedly better than the all-time worst performance of March, but lagged the market. I continue to doubt the efficacy of the model under the current market regime. I again refrain from adding new picks, given the market’s volatility and repeated gaps.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
I have been lamenting in recent weeks that market interventions by the POTUS render our cycle-based swing trade picking screens ineffective, if not useless, and I have been thinking out discontinuing them. But April has gotten off to a booming start, reversing much of the March losses.
Don’t be fooled. This is the nature of randomness.
The market enters a pivotal week where bullish cycle structures at the short and intermediate levels must contend with intensifying geopolitical pressure. Whether the S&P 500 can clear immediate resistance to reach targets near xxxx will determine if technical cycle phases can override external fundamental shocks.
The market broke its downtrend last week but established a new intermediate downtrend channel, with cycle alignments suggesting an intermediate low forming here. However, failure to mount a significant rally from current levels or a breakdown of key support could still trigger a crash.
Current results are terrible, in fact the worst month since beginning this exercise 9 years ago, and especially since tweaking the algorithms in November 2024.
The list currently has an average loss of -4.3% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. This is an improvement over last week’s 7.2% loss thanks to strong performance of open picks, which have an average gain of 4.6% over 20 calendar days. But it comes after weeks of disastrous model output, and my selections. I question whether the model can provide reliable output, in a market that has more government interventions than possibly ever.
The S&P 500 remains confined within a narrow downtrend channel, with indicators signaling major trend weakness. While a news-driven rally is under way this morning, if the index fails to sustain gains and if key support levels fail to hold this week, this would be a potential crash setup.
The S&P 500 remains confined within a narrow downtrend channel, with indicators signaling major trend weakness. While a news-driven rally is under way this morning, if the index fails to sustain gains and if key support levels fail to hold this week, this would be a potential crash setup.
I believe that the behavior of the list in the last couple of weeks indicates a market undergoing major transition, where cyclical factors appear conducive to supporting external shock. …
I have chosen 4 short sales this week ….
The market is at a critical inflection point as the S&P 500 completed a top by closing below 6700 last week. A morning rally has rebounded to trend channel lines. While some short-term indicators suggest a potential low forming by xxxx xxxx, the broader cycle data—including a strong sell signal on the Cycle Wave Composite—points toward an increasingly bearish long-term outlook.
I believe that the behavior of the list in the last couple of weeks indicates a market undergoing major transition, where cyclical factors appear conducive to supporting external shock. But so far, this view has not manifest in the stock screens of most listed, actively traded stocks.