Lee AdlerI believe that the behavior of the list in the last couple of weeks indicates a market undergoing major transition, where cyclical factors appear conducive to supporting external shock. But so far, this view has not manifest in the stock screens of most listed, actively traded stocks.
I set numerous sell orders for last Monday’s open, with most of those taking sharp losses. Small consolation that it would have been worse had I not done that. And the picks I left in place—energy longs and a short, did ok while 2 new picks on the short side treaded water.
The market is positioned to open below a significant top pattern, with technical indicators and cycle analysis suggesting an increasingly likely down phase and major trend weakness.
Cycle based screening methodology struggles with rangebound markets where wave frequencies go hyper, amplitudes are large, and/or the market is whipped around by news. The idea is to survive those periods, and then be well positioned for the next sustained trend. We’re in survival mode now. The list has been mostly minimally positive during this rangebound period, but the meatgrinder effect finally appeared last week. The market chewed us up and spit us out.
The S&P 500 is currently testing key support levels within a short-term downtrend channel following the US attack on Iran over the weekend. While short-term cycles suggest a possible bottom, long-term momentum is weakening, placing the market in a high-risk window. We need wait and see for one or two sessions, to estimate whether this action deflects the market to a lower trajectory, or merely creates temporary distortion.
The list currently has an average gain 2.7% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week. 6 new picks will be added this week and 5 will be closed.
Short-term indicators suggest a potential minor rally toward April. However, this strength is expected to be temporary as the broader trend faces exhaustion and long-term cycles enter a high-risk phase.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
The list currently has an average gain 2.7% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week. 6 new picks will be added this week and 5 will be closed.
The market remains within a trading range, showing signs of a concurrent down phase across multiple cycles but without downward thrust, suggesting that xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx 2-3 xxxxxx months.
The market is in a rising wedge pushing against resistance, requiring a move above xxxx for an upside breakout or a close below xxxx to break the uptrend. While short-term technical bias remains bullish, indicators show a lack of thrust, placing the market in a high-risk window as it nears potential long-term cycle tops.
Here are the support and resistance levels, cycle projections, and indicators to watch to determine the direction of the next big move.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.
The list has an average gain 7.2% on an average holding period of 22 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week.