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Current results are terrible, in fact the worst month since beginning this exercise 9 years ago, and especially since tweaking the algorithms in November 2024.
Evidence is piling up that my swing trade screen criteria and my chart reading of the output no longer work. Whether this is because of an environment of repeated, extreme interventions in the market by the President of the US, or other factors, is unknown.
However, we have seen that the interventions have moved the market in much bigger than normal chunks. At times, these interventions seem tied to the geopolitical environment, and at other times, they seem tied directly to reactions to events or developing trends in the financial markets. But in all cases, they distort chart patterns. Algorithms based on the math of those patterns stop working. A system that is based only on Monday morning entries can’t work in such an environment, especially when the distortions are greatest on Monday morning.
Despite currently open picks having an average gain of 0.7%, I caution against acting on these picks. The madness that transpired out of the White House on Easter Sunday only heightens the danger of trying to follow this system, or perhaps any system, that does not predict Trump’s decision-making process and impulses, and the market’s reactions to them.
That said, I will continue to produce these swing trade screen reports for the time being, but if results don’t improve soon, an endpoint is coming.
I have chosen 4 buys this week. This is consistent with the broad market short term cycle outlook. Unfortunately, that probably doesn’t matter. We’ll just have to see how these play out. Meanwhile, there was a sea change in the data last week from a preponderance of sell setups to a shift to a buy side edge.
During the week ended Thursday, April 2 (US market closed April 3), out of 1899 stocks meeting institutional price and volume criteria, the screens produced the following results:
Cumulative lists of longer-term setups:
- 470 resting big gainers, up from 409 last week
- 447 sleeping dogs, up from 447 last week.
- 171 breakout charts last 9 months- up from 170 last week
- 123 breakdown charts last 9 months – up from 122
Weekly screens of cycle positions:
- 108 met strict major or intermediate trend buy setup criteria, versus 51 the previous week. Of all bullish longer-term setups, 96 charts triggered short term buy signals, versus 12 the prior week (note this includes those that triggered since the beginning of the week).
- 81 met strict major or intermediate trend sell setup criteria, versus 76 the previous week. Of all bearish longer-term setups, 4 charts triggered short term sell signals, compared with 40 the prior week.
Tactics
For actionable trades, I visually review charts that triggered short term signals from the prescreened structural candidates. I also review the existing issues on the list for whether to close, hold, or add or adjust stops. Here are the results of my final review for this week.
Trade Selections and Adjustments (Table below)
- 4 new picks, all buys. See table below.
- Two picks will be closed as of Monday’s open.
Table in subscriber report. Non subscribers, click here for access.