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The list currently has an average loss of -4.3% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days. This is an improvement over last week’s 7.2% loss thanks to strong performance of open picks, which have an average gain of 4.6% over 20 calendar days. But it comes after weeks of disastrous model output, and my selections. I question whether the model can provide reliable output, in a market that has more government interventions than possibly ever.
I use this data for my own trading, which has been meh since the beginning of this year. Given the constant interventions which distort or break normal cycle patterns, I question whether the method can regenerate the edge that it generated for the previous year since I refined the algos.
I have chosen 3 short sales this week which I view as having good downside potential with limited upside risk. 4 of the last 5 picks are doing fine. One is not. But given the strong performance of most remaining open picks, I will try to ring the bell one last time. But it’s week to week. I am not willing to do this if it demonstrates that it no longer works under the current regime.
During the week ended Friday, March 27, out of 1899 stocks meeting institutional price and volume criteria, the screens produced the following results:
Cumulative lists of longer-term setups:
- 409 resting big gainers, up from 405 last week
- 447 sleeping dogs, up from 444 last week.
- 170 breakout charts last 9 months- unchanged from 170 last week
- 122 breakdown charts last 9 months – up from 121
Weekly screens of cycle positions.
- 51 met strict major or intermediate trend buy setup criteria, down from 69. Of all bullish longer-term setups, 12 charts triggered short term buy signals, up from 6 the prior week (note this includes those that triggered since the beginning of the week).
- 76 met strict major or intermediate trend sell setup criteria, up from 34. Of all bearish longer-term setups, 40 charts triggered short term sell signals, up from 19 the prior week.
Tactics
For actionable trades, I visually review charts that triggered short term signals from the prescreened structural candidates. I also review the existing issues on the list for whether to close, hold, or add or adjust stops. Here are the results of my final review for this week.Trade Selections and Adjustments
- 3 new picks, all shorts. See table below.
- One pick will be closed on Monday’s open.
Current Performance Picks closed in March so far have an average loss of 8.8% on an average 16 day holding period. Picks currently open have an average gain of 4.6% on an average holding period of 20 calendar days.
Table in subscriber report. Non subscribers, click here for access.