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I set numerous sell orders for last Monday’s open, with most of those taking sharp losses. Small consolation that it would have been worse had I not done that. And the picks I left in place—energy longs and a short, did ok while 2 new picks on the short side treaded water.
The list currently has an average loss of -6.5% on an average holding period of 14 calendar days, including open picks and those closed out last week. That’s a sharp deterioration from 3% average gain, 2 weeks before.
I believe that the behavior of the list in the last couple of weeks indicates a market undergoing major transition, where cyclical factors appear conducive to supporting external shock. More on that in the market update.
During the week ended Friday, March 6, out of 1899 stocks meeting institutional price and volume criteria, the screens produced the following results:
Cumulative lists of longer-term setups:
- 383 resting big gainers, up from 371 last week
- 429 sleeping dogs, up from 415 last week.
- 165 breakout charts last 9 months- up from 156 last week
- 120 breakdown charts last 9 months – unchanged from 120
Weekly screens of cycle positions.
- 151 met strict major or intermediate trend buy setup criteria, up from 97. Of all bullish longer-term setups, 18 charts triggered short term buy signals, down from 31 the prior week.
- 42 met strict major or intermediate trend sell setup criteria, down from 66. Of all bearish longer-term setups, 9 charts triggered short term sell signals, down from 19 the prior week.
Tactics
For actionable trades, I visually review charts that triggered short term signals from the prescreened structural candidates. I also review the existing issues on the list for whether to close, hold, or add or adjust stops. Here are the results of my final review for this week.
Trade Selections and Adjustments
- No new picks. See table below.
- 9 existing picks were closed last week. I have set no actions to be taken on existing picks this week (see table below).
- 5 earlier picks will remain open, 2 buys (energy), and 3 shorts.
Table in subscriber report. Non subscribers, click here for access.
Current Performance
Picks closed in February had an average gain of 2.6% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. Picks closed in March so far have an average loss of 11.4% on an average 15 day holding period. Picks currently open have an average gain of 2.4% and an average holding period of 13 calendar days.