The Treasury will at least double its debt buyback program, but the details that matter most, including how large the increase will actually be and how it will be financed are yet to come. The bigger question is whether it can meaningfully offset near-record coupon issuance. Will it have the intended effect, or adverse unintended consequences. Dealer positioning in this regard is of Primary importance. This week’s Primary Dealer Positions and Financing update looks at where dealer balance sheets, repo financing, and futures hedging stand as the pressure from the tsunami of issuance continues to build unabated.
This report talks about the two big flaws in the Bessent Buyback strategy and shows where the cracks are in the Primary Dealer holdings, financing, and hedging statistics. It also includes a look at hedge fund positions in the bond market, which are another canary in the coal mine of deteriorating liquidity conditions across asset classes.
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