The rest of the investment universe has caught up with us and is now deeply concerned about the bond market. Well known pundits have expounded on the problem, attributing it to all sorts of tangential and meaningless issues. Meanwhile the problem is exactly as we foresaw over the past couple of years, supply. Simply by watching the trends of the data that matters, I forecasted that the inflection point would come in July. That was a few weeks early, but close enough.
We are now in the belly of the beast. Get used to it. Continue to avoid the bond market in any form. And be wary of the potential for contagion.
This report updates the current actual real time government revenues and outlays through the end of August. A marginal improvement in the data changes nothing. The danger remains extreme.
This report is only part of the story. We look at other aspects of both the supply issues and the demand side in other regular updates in this series.
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Subscribers Download Here: Federal Budget Report September 3, 2026 (Membership Required: Integrated Edge or Macroliquidity™)
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