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The Treasury’s funding needs, combined with the end of the Fed’s RRP market support fund, stagnant repo activity, and extreme margin leverage, create a setup that looks like a late-stage bull market. The markets are holding for now, but the pillars are stretched, and the risk of a sharp reversal is rising.
I track daily cash flows from the Fed and Treasury that set up the next moves in stocks, bonds, and the dollar.
It’s the same data the big desks watch — but you see it here without the Wall Street spin.
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