Lee AdlerThe Treasury’s aggressive T-bill paydowns have acted as synthetic QE, injecting liquidity into the financial system and fueling a powerful stock market rally since April. This has all been foreseeable, and has played out as forecast. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is now declining rapidly, and that will lead to big problems.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.
This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.
This report outlines the dangerous game now unfolding: artificial liquidity abundance from Treasury debt limit management policy, masking the structural change just ahead.
The Treasury is burning through cash at a rate that assures destruction by mid summer. Once the TGA hits that level, the debt ceiling must be lifted—or the U.S. government will default. This is the moment I refer to as DOAD: Do A Deal or Die.
Subscribers, click here to download the report. April’s tax data shows slowing revenue growth, stable trends in key categories, and strong tariff growth. But the…
The U.S. Treasury primary market is showing structural stress disguised as stability. Dealer participation is masking fading real demand.
Subscribers, click here to download the report. The illusion of plentiful liquidity is about to evaporate. The apparent pool will suddenly materialize a cliff. Professional…
Subscribers, click here to download the report. As liquidity pressures intensify, the market is on the verge of an even bigger shock. Professional investors, click…
Subscribers, click here to download the report. Withholding tax collections through April 2 decelerated versus recent months. This marks the expected cyclical downstroke, due to…
Subscribers, click here to download the report. The April 3 report is now live, with a full breakdown of dealer positioning, leverage extremes, and why…
Subscribers, click here to download the report. A new analysis suggests that the liquidity crisis may arrive sooner than the actual liquidity cliff Professional investors,…