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Withholding tax data continued to show strong nominal gains in October with modest real growth. However, soaring federal spending widened the deficit again, which means growing Treasury supply to come. Tariff revenue gains have been offset by weaker corporate taxes, and much higher spending. Heavy Treasury issuance is sustained by repo funding, leaving markets reliant on artificial liquidity.
The system is still working, but fragile. Risks are growing. The 10 year Treasury yield is set to provide a key signal.
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