This isn’t a recap. The breakdown is still unfolding—and everything I’ve done this year has pointed to it.
The March 31 Technical Trader laid out the crash setup clearly:
“A break below 5400 would initiate a crash channel setup.”
“Crash channel forming. ”
“Crash Channel Trigger: Break below 5400 → Opens door to accelerated decline.”
“A breakdown below 5500 would target 5200 initially, with long-term potential to the low 4000s.”
“Long-term cycle indicators are now flashing confirmed sell signals.”
That was the wave structure. Now it’s in motion.
The S&P broke 5400.
The Dow dropped through 41,000.
QQQ lost its footing.
The Cycle Wave Composite™ is in confirmed downside thrust.
This is what cycle breakdown looks like— as forecast and chronicled in real time.
The Positioning Started in December
I had already been recommending short-side setups beginning in December, and increasingly in January. Swing trade screen pics were overwhelmingly short by February.
The February swing screen started that shift. Closed trades in March averaged +6.5%, even as the S&P dropped 6.3%. The YTD average across all trades stands at +3.8%, with a 16-day average holding period.
This work is for clients who want to act on probabilistic, predictive structure—not guesswork.
What I’m Working On Now
The April 7 report, to be published this weekend, will update:
- Downside projections across SPX, Dow, and QQQ
- Where the active wave phase now points
- What’s confirmed, what’s vulnerable, and what setups still offer edge
- Tactical swing trades, filtered by the current cycle window
The model isn’t looking backward. It’s still engaged.
For Professionals Who Want the Next Signal
You can download the March 31 report here:
To receive the April 7 issue when it’s ready, become a client here:
I restrict my work to a small group of clients who use proven probability forecasts—with actionable suggestions, clear triggers, and defined targets—to make positioning decisions with greater confidence.
—Lee Adler