Swing Trade Model Holds +5.4% in Crash After Closing March at +6.4%

The two open short positions from last week are showing an average gain of +5.4% — in the middle of a liquidation-driven crash.

March closed with a +6.4% average gain per trade. Year-to-date, the average across all closed trades stands at +3.6%. That includes the last two weeks, when the model shifted short and then stepped aside as structure broke down.

That’s not a theoretical average — it’s actual tracked trade data, with every position calculated based on calendar-day holding periods and 100% cash exposure.

The table below compares Liquidity Trader’s swing trade results over the past four months to the S&P 500:

There are no new trades this week.

The screen still works — it filtered 14 new sell signals on Friday. But nearly every stock that qualified had already triggered in previous weeks. These were just the leftovers. And given the likely gap-down open,  I took a pass on even the technically acceptable setups.

The model is 95% mechanical. It filters the universe and identifies setups aligned with intermediate and major cycle waves. But that last 5% — the decision to act — depends on judgment.

I closed six longs early last week. I added two late shorts. And I’m avoiding new commitments until wave structures return to more normal rhythms.

The chart below is one of the two remaining shorts. Still valid. Still held.

There are no new trades this week.

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• The weekly Market Update (broad cycle turns and structure), and

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+6.4% avg gain per trade in March
+3.6% YTD across all trades
+5.4% avg gain on current open positions

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Editorial Note:
This post was generated with AI assistance under the direction, control, and final review of Lee Adler. All analysis, conclusions, and market interpretations reflect his proprietary methodology and editorial standards.