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What Happens Before the Liquidity Cliff

Markets are distracted. But the real threat isn’t political—it’s structural.

Macro liquidity is unraveling at breakneck speed. Institutional money is rotating out of risk. Foreign capital is no longer a stabilizer, it’s fleeing the US. Repo balances are peaking at lower levels, a telltale sign of fading leverage appetite.

The illusion of US strength is fading—and the next supply wave hasn’t even begun.

Liquidity Trader’s April 14 Macro Liquidity Report maps the deterioration across every layer that matters: bank deposits, MMFs, foreign flows, and Treasury absorption. This isn’t a forecast. It’s the mechanics of breakdown—already in motion.

Yes, macro liquidity is also behind the current short term rally, but there’s more pain to come.


Foreign Capital Is Exiting. The Market Is Following.

Foreign central bank reverse repo balances are a leading signal for systemic liquidity risk. They peaked in early 2024—and each rally since has failed lower.

Chart showing foreign central bank reverse repo balances vs. S&P 500 index – early indicator of U.S. market liquidity deterioration.
Foreign central bank RRP balances are falling from lower peaks, while U.S. equities remain extended. This divergence reflects weakening systemic liquidity.

That’s not noise. It’s a symptom of structural withdrawal.

Liquidity Trader has tracked this divergence through every leg of the market’s reversal.

Institutional Access

✅ Request a complimentary review copy of the April 14 Macro Liquidity Report (for qualified professionals), or
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Posted in Institutional Preview