Liquidity conditions are deteriorating in real time. Treasury’s cash balance has peaked. The drawdown has begun. With the debt ceiling still capping new borrowing, what’s left is a one-way drain.
This phase of the market is deceptive. Temporary injections from T-bill paydowns are creating the appearance of liquidity. That flow is limited—and mechanical. It won’t last.
Rallies in both bonds and stocks have been feeding on this misread. But once the ceiling lifts, the shift in issuance will be immediate and severe. Whether Treasury rebuilds a minimal cash buffer or aims higher, the result is the same: a supply wave with no ramp and no slack.
The latest Macro Liquidity Report focuses on the setup taking shape now—before the event. The critical signals are already visible in the TGA trend, deficit trajectory, and Treasury’s issuance pattern. The market’s not paying attention. You should be.
Rate structures still look orderly. That won’t hold. The bond market is one trigger away from a structural repricing. When it starts, it won’t wait for confirmation.
The full reports lay out the pressure points across funding, absorption, and foreign capital behavior. The levers are in motion. Are you prepared?
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