The current Macro Liquidity Report lays out the mechanics behind the current rally and the conditions that will reverse it. T-bill paydowns have injected over $120 billion into dealer and leveraged speculator accounts since mid-April. That flow will end. When it does, the Treasury will resume net issuance at scale, pulling cash out of the system.
There is a specific window for this reversal. The exact date depends on daily Treasury cash flows, tax receipts, outlays, and the debt ceiling. That target is updated regularly in these reports. Readers can track these data series themselves—or save the time and let Liquidity Trader do it for them. No other source is monitoring this regularly in real-time.
Key themes in the full report:
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Stocks/Money ratio returned to its 2-year trendline, setting up the rally, but remains overextended on a long-term basis. The recent selloff failed to fully correct the excesses of the prior bull run.
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MMF and repo flows show no new risk appetite. While balances have stabilized, they aren’t expanding—suggesting the rally isn’t being funded through traditional leverage channels.
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Lending to non-bank financial institutions has surged—systemic leverage is rising.
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Foreign capital continues to exit; U.S. markets have lost safe-haven status.
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Treasury cash burn accelerates; full-scale issuance likely within weeks.
This isn’t a forecast—it’s a scheduled event. The liquidity cliff is mechanical, and it’s now within our field of view. While others look elsewhere and walk toward it blind, we’re tracking every step. We won’t be going over with them.