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Author: Lee Adler

Still Waiting for Bottom Signal in Gold

Lee Adler

While there are hopeful signs in the short run, we need to see action on that over the next couple of weeks to avail another downdraft to the projection of xxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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It’s Only an Intermediate Top

Lee Adler

There were several signs of an important top last week, but it’s too early to say whether it will result in a correction or another benign consolidation on the way higher. The best chance for some real weakness is over the next 2 weeks. If it doesn’t materialize, then here’s what will come next.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – First Time in Months, More New Shorts Than Buys

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 40 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 61 charts with a second sell signal. That’s a switch from prior weeks when there were far more buy than sell signals. But the numbers are small on both sides, suggesting a lack of breadth, momentum, and conviction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Average swing trade chart pick theoretical profit slipped from 10.8% to 9.7% last week, on an average holding period of 28 calendar days. Some profits were culled, with 6 picks closed out, as shown on the table below. 3 of the 4 new picks were losers, hurting performance, but I want to give them time to back and fill, as is normal before moves take hold. Non-subscribers click here for access.

After reviewing the charts with signals, I added two buys to the list. One was a chart that made the list in early June, but went down and picked off a stop I placed last week. It then recovered and triggered new buy signals. I still like the chart. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I found 6 setups I liked on the sell side and added those to the list as shorts. This is a shift from the recent pattern of adding almost entirely buys, and few or no sells. Non-subscribers click here for access.

These moves, along with the new additions will leave 14 buys and 7 shorts on the list over the coming week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10%, as it did for a couple of weeks this month. While many charts are extended, and a few have started to pull back from or near resistance levels, I’m not seeing signs of a significant reversal here yet. However, a pause or consolidation looks likely. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I have adjusted or added stops on many of the picks. Others I have left without stops because the trends are good and I don’t want to get picked off early, so I will let those ride. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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We Now Know What is Driving the Rally

Lee Adler

Tick Tock. No not the app. That’s the sound of the clock ticking. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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 The story is told in the Fed’s weekly data on the US banking system, released Friday night with a 9 day lag. Yeah, the rally may still have life, but as with all life, it’s finite. So enjoy it while you can. Because tick, tock. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

From Whence Cometh the Rally Money

I have pointed out in recent weeks that when the Treasury would start issuing mass quantities of T-bills that they could be used as collateral for leveraging other purchases. And that maybe, just maybe, dealers and hedgies might use that leverage to buy stocks. Lo and behold, as I reviewed my banking system charts, the evidence of just that process appeared. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

I present forthwith for your dining and listening pleasure, the chart of bank repo (Repurchase Agreement) loans. These are typically overnight loans that banks make to dealers and hedge funds in exchange for Treasury collateral. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

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KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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We Have Met the Resistance

Lee Adler

The market has reached the upper limit of its intermediate uptrend channels, and the rally is aging. But there are signs that there’s still more upside to go before this thing ultimately rolls over. This report tells you where and when we should be looking to get out of our longs. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Gets Nearer Important Cycle Lows

Lee Adler

Gold remains due for a 13 week cycle upturn and this week it begins a bottoming window for an even bigger cycle. This report tells when that is, how big the window is, and what the projected low is. It also reports on two mining stocks that finally flashed buy signals. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working

Lee Adler

The Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) operations act primarily as a money market fund for money market funds (MMFs.) The MMFs were forced out of their T-bills in 2021-22 because the US Treasury was paying them down. The Treasury redeemed the T-bills and the MMFs got cash back. Not what they wanted. They need to earn interest on those funds.  Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The MMFs were therefore in trouble. The Fed came to the rescue by opening its RRP operations to the MMFs. Previously, only Primary Dealers could participate. In effect, the Fed began subsidizing MMFs. As the Fed raised the rate it paid on RRPs, that increased the subsidy to MMFs, and their holders, mostly big investors. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

In this program, the MMF’s could place their excess cash with the Fed overnight and get a nice big fat, risk free, interest payment in return. The Fed imagines that money into existence. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But the interest payments cut into the Fed’s surplus (aka profit). If the Fed loses money, that reduces the amount of surplus and ultimately, the taxpayer ends up paying for that. Nice. Taxpayers fund welfare payments to MMFs which are typically held by the wealthiest of the wealthy anyway. Therefore the Fed’s interest payments on RRPs are welfare for the rich. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

But I digress.

Once the RRPs were opened up to MMFs, RRPs outstanding ballooned. They got up to $2.6 trillion when the Fed rescued those couple of failed banks in March. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Meanwhile, I have constantly warned that when the debt ceiling was lifted and the US Treasury started issuing T-bills again, MMFs would pull cash from RRPs to buy T-bills. It’s now happening. RRP balances have fallen by $275 billion since May 24, as the Treasury has been issuing wads of T-bills, including a net of $175 billion this week. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The RRPs aren’t funding all of that, but they’re absorbing most of it. With T-bills being perfect collateral, they can be, and are, used for repurchase agreements from banks (RPs) whereby the bank will provide credit up to nearly the amount of the T-bill. RPs are like margin loans in that respect, except that the haircut is almost nothing. So the reintroduction of T-bills into the market provides collateral for more credit. More credit means more money to buy hot paper. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

And they’re buying it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Some of you have pointed out correctly that MMFs, particularly government MMFs, can only buy T-bills with their cash. But MMFs are only intermediaries. Who holds MMFs? That’s right, major investment institutions, hedge funds, and you and me, aka Ma and Pa investor.
We investors, both big and small, participate in the Fed’s RRP program through these intermediaries. And when we as a group start feeling bullish on balance, for no reason in particular, then we pull money out of MMFs and buy stocks, bonds, real estate etc. etc. etc. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

That’s what is happening now. The rationale for it DOES NOT MATTER. The fact that interest rates are higher now than last October when stocks bottomed, DOES NOT MATTER. The fact that the Fed is still steadily tightening monetary policy via QT DOES NOT MATTER. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Yet.

QT will matter.

I’ll tell you when, and why, and what it will mean for your dining, listening, and investing pleasure. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Adding Late Cycle Buys

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 121 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 42 charts with a second sell signal. That’s roughly the same ratio as the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Average swing trade chart pick theoretical profit rose to 10.8% last week, on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. Whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10% over the past 18 months, the market has subsequently reversed. While many charts are extended, and/or at or near resistance levels, I’m not seeing signs of reversal here yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I’m adding four late cycle buy signals to the list. Picking up laggards is risky when a rally is this far along but I liked these charts enough to add them to the list. There were more that I could have added and didn’t because the list is already so loaded. Those that I did add were the best looking ones. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Five picks hit stops last week and will no longer appear on the list. I am pulling two stocks from the list as of today’s opening price. I have adjusted stops on others. These moves, along with the new additions will leave 16 buys and one short on the list over the coming week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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Rally Broadens as It Gains Momo

Lee Adler

Technical indications show that the rally is no longer limited to just a few big cap tech stocks. The troops are getting in position to advance behind the leaders. This report shows exactly how high you can expect the S&P 500 to go, and when it will get there.  Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let Your Profits Run

Lee Adler

Average swing trade list theoretical profit rose above 10% last week, on an average holding period of 3 weeks. It would have been even greater had I not added 3 shorts last week. That was at least premature. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Swing trade stock screens produced 127 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. There were just 51 charts with a second sell signal. Signals tilted more to the buy side than in previous weeks, suggesting a modest broadening of the rally. However, whenever the list profit has reached an average of 10% over the past 18 months, the market has subsequently reversed. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In view of that, and given the duration of the rally already, I am reluctant to add more longs now. There were a number of setups that looked pretty good, mostly in the energy sector, along with a few REITs, about which I’m skeptical. But with so many longs already, I’ll ride with those and start adding stops for profit taking purposes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I looked hard at the sells. Most of them were fixed income and gold ETFs. Among the few common stocks that had sell signals, the setups were not good for shorting. Nor do I like the looks of the 3 shorts already on the list, so I added or adjusted stops to those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

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