Lee AdlerIf gold’s trading feels like an indecisive mess to you, it is because it is. Short term and intermediate cycles are all opposed to one another, and there’s no impetus in either direction. But there have been signs of life in the miners, and we have a few picks to swing.
Cycles are mixed, with all shorter cycles in down phases that are still flat, but could grow teeth. The longer term structures and outlook stay bullish.
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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
2/16/21 Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊
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List performance degraded last week, with the average gain dropping to +2.5% on an average holding period of 12 days. That includes open picks and those that triggered stops during the week. Remaining picks are shaky. I have tightened stops.
New for this week, I’ve added 5 shorts and no longs to the list.
This table summarizes recent list performance.
The markets are awash in cash. It shows up on the Fed’s balance sheet. It shows up in the Treasury account, and in Primary Dealer Accounts. It shows up in Reverse Repos.
That cash is coming from the US Treasury’s campaign of paying down T-bills. Those paydowns have totaled $430 billion since February 23. It’s an abomination of market manipulation. But it has worked to stabilize the bond market, levitate stock prices some more, and some more, and some more, and to stave off yet another Primary Dealer collapse.
We can follow these flows via the Fed’s weekly balance sheet statements, and the charts and indicators we derive from it.
The Treasury still has $1 trillion in its account that it must spend down. Annual taxes are still coming in, replenishing that account. The Treasury will almost certainly continue to pay down T-bills until there’s no cash left. I will do a revised estimate of when that will be from the April end of month Daily Treasury Statement. Prior to that, I give my best current swag in this report.
Until then, the cash will continue to flow. This report shows you exactly how this impacts stocks and bonds, so that you know how to play it, and when to GTFO.
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The short term outlook isn’t positive, but the longer intermediate cycles remain on the buy side. There’s just one thing to look out for, and it’s big. Plus, we hold on to two mining picks, and swing with another.
Cycles are mixed, with all shorter cycles in down phases that are still flat, but could grow teeth. The longer term structures and outlook stay bullish.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.
Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.
I took some time off from trading this week, which was probably a good thing, considering the whippiness and suddenness of the changes of direction. I ran screens during the week, but did not look at them. For the week there were 115 buy signals and 137 sell signals. The picks below are from the screen I ran from Friday’s data.
Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. Then I apply technical filters looking for short term cycle buy and sell signals near key longer period cycle support ranges. This typically results in between 30 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊
Last week was a rough ride with all the whipsaws. 5 stops got clipped. The chart pick list had an average gain of 3.5% with an average holding period of 13 calendar days.
The balance between QE and Treasury supply remains bullish. This should provide an underpinning preventing the stock market selloff from going too far. At the same time, Treasuries have apparently put in an intermediate term low.
May will be even more bullish, but there are trends in place that will end the party, and we have a pretty good idea of when.
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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money
There are signs of hope in the charts of gold, and the miners.
Is the stock market constructing a space needle pattern on the charts? Cycles remain in gear to the upside for all time frames from 4 weeks to 10-12 months. We have updated price projections for the tops projected for early this summer. But in the short run, look for more foundation building. Don’t let that trick you into thinking that it’s something that it isn’t.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.
Not a subscriber? Follow Lee’s market analysis and outlook, with price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.