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Treasury issuance and liquidity measures suggest a probable temporary reprieve but how long and how strong. After that comes the deluge. This report looks at the keys to watch with charts and highlighted.
My analysis and conclusions, organized by AI for clarity and flow, with emphasis of key points. Reported textually and visually.
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Withholding tax collections jumped year-over-year as of March 3—at the upper end of the past year’s strong nominal growth trend. This report illustrates what that means for Treasury supply and the liquidity outlook for stocks.
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This week, I take a fresh approach—a Q&A debate with my AI assistant, AI-vin Chatmonk, where I challenge Wall Street’s liquidity narratives. Did AI get it right, or did I have to set it straight?
Inside this report:
Updated macro-liquidity charts AI-generated analysis (with my pushback) A structured addendum for quick reference
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The latest Liquidity Trader Primary Dealer Position Report is live. 
This month’s analysis uncovers extreme dealer leverage, wild swings in repo financing, and the debt ceiling’s impact on liquidity flows.
Key insights: Dealer fixed income inventories hit record highs – What does this mean for bonds and equities? Repo market extreme leverage – A Stress Warning – How close are we to a liquidity crunch? Debt ceiling constraints temporarily limit supply – Bullish for now, but what happens when the floodgates reopen?
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The latest Liquidity Trader – Money Trends Macro Liquidity Report by Lee Adler is now available. Subscribers, click here to download the report.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. Treasury’s supply outlook from February to April 2025, featuring the issuance schedule with estimated net new supply for each issue, as well as the impact of T-bill paydowns, the role of the Fed’s RRP facility, and debt ceiling uncertainties, including a forecast date when the US Treasury will run out of cash.
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Withholding tax collections entered a strong rebound phase in early February after their typical cyclical trough in late January. Strong employee earnings inflation accounted for 2/3 of the gain. Meanwhile, corporate tax collections continue to reflect strong profitability and excise tax collections were also strong.
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Liquidity remains plentiful, sustaining bullish market sentiment for now. Key risks include a breakdown in repo growth, foreign investor withdrawal, and Treasury policy for debt ceiling management. A reversal in any of these areas could signal the start of a major market correction.
The next few months will be critical in determining whether liquidity continues to sustain market momentum or if cracks start to emerge. Here are the keys to the outlook.
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This update builds upon the analysis provided in the Liquidity Trader Macro Liquidity Report dated January 24, 2025 incorporating data released by the Federal Reserve on January 24. The original report highlighted the precarious balance between liquidity drivers and systemic risks. This update refines those insights with the most recent data on the Stock Price to Bank Deposit Ratio, Delivery Versus Payment (DVP) Repo trends, and the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) slush fund.
This update aligns with the themes of liquidity-driven market risks and shows emerging sentiment and monetary shifts. These shifts suggest that change is likely in the trajectory of equity markets in the months ahead.
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The current market environment reflects a precarious balance between liquidity expansion and underlying systemic risks. Despite the Federal Reserve’s continued quantitative tightening (QT), private money creation through lending and repo markets has kept liquidity flowing, pushing stock prices to historically stretched levels. However, the new political approach to the re-imposition of the federal debt ceiling introduces uncertainties.
This report covers the data and shows you the trends to watch in order to prepare for what’s ahead. A vigilant approach to liquidity signals and fiscal developments will be critical in adapting to potential shifts in market conditions. I will continue to provide that vigilance for you in the months ahead.
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Primary Dealer positions and financing indicate elevated risk, but debt ceiling dynamics, and resulting market liquidity conditions should delay the next bear market until later this year. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
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Lee Adler