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Category: Fed, Central Bank and Banking Macro Liquidity

Analysis of the major forces of macro liquidity that drive markets.  

Primary Dealer Inventory Cutbacks Signal System Stress Ahead of Debt Ceiling Resolution

Primary Dealers are pulling back from Treasury absorption — not by choice, but by constraint. With inventories falling despite relentless coupon issuance, the data confirms what recent auctions have already hinted: dealers are maxed out.

This report unpacks what the May 21 breakout in yields really signals—and why the next phase of Treasury supply could bring more than just higher rates.